General August Weather

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Locked
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

General August Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A westerrlie start for the month?
I wonder what the rest of the month will be like? :-$
JohnGaul
NZThS
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

UKMet run 3107 00Z today is warming to a large moisture rich convergence zone for parts of Upper NI, Coromandel or BOP this weekend. Others not on board yet but UKM has been onto this for 24 hours now. That will cause quite a few issues if it verifies.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by David »

There's been some quite punchy cumulus around Auckland today. This one looked like it was developing a pileus cap, at about 4.15pm.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

All the main models are painting a big wet target around Gisborne and BOP in the next 48 hours. MS going for 180 to 230mm in the warning this morning. Watching with interest on where exactly the trough stalls, there could be some big downgrades or upgrades if it wiggles east or west from the current projected location.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Bit surprised to wake top such steady rain this morning. Going for a run over Mt Herbert this morning, hope it clears swiftly
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Yet its mostly a sunny day here, can see the high cloud moving down the coast
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by melja »

Has been a nice sunny day here in Rangiora too since day break.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by tich »

Razor wrote: Sat 04/08/2018 07:05 Bit surprised to wake top such steady rain this morning. Going for a run over Mt Herbert this morning, hope it clears swiftly
Nothing in St Albans. (though a few days ago the forecast was for several wet days in Chch)
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Further shift of the rain to the west with latest forecasts. Originally looked like western BOP then models shifted to east cape and east coast NI. Now we are looking like central BOP and western BOP again. Hope we don’t get too much here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Fog moving into Ashburton at present.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Looking at the current radar, the near stationery front around the NI has definitely moved further north west than models had anticipated. Showers are now just east of Great Barrier Island. Parts of the Upper NI including Auckland might get wet tomorrow depending on how this new surface low behaves.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Just come back from Mt. Cook where the cloud cleared away this morning to become a nice sunny day up there. Foggy or misty coming back to Geraldine.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Sat 04/08/2018 23:02, edited 1 time in total.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by David »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Sat 04/08/2018 20:08 Looking at the current radar, the near stationery front around the NI has definitely moved further north west than models had anticipated. Showers are now just east of Great Barrier Island. Parts of the Upper NI including Auckland might get wet tomorrow depending on how this new surface low behaves.
Will be really interesting to see how it develops. Metservice saying tomorrow will be a mostly fine day in Auckland but their 3 day model shows some rain at times
Image
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Orion »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc - beautiful photo! _b

Foggy and about 1deg. C here.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Thin layer of fog here and -2deg
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by RWood »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 04/08/2018 20:50 Just come back from Mt. Cook where the cloud cleared away this morning to become a nice sunny day up there. Foggy or misty coming back to Geraldine.
Very nice shot - terminal lake looks bigger than ever.
treetop
Posts: 316
Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
Location: katikati
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by treetop »

Looks like we are getting into another blocking pattern with persistant rain events for the north. { just when things were looking back to normal]Tauranga will get 3 or 4 days non stop rain this week. aaaahhhh
ttttttttttt
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Richard »

A decent rain would be handy here now seeing its not rained properly for over a month.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by melja »

I'm picking that given chch I think is already over it annual rainfall it could be slim pickings.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by melja »

Lovely spring like day in Rangiora, just hit 19.6 C with a light northerly.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

TonyT wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 15:37
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.
Yes, interesting point. At the moment, maybe it’s the vigorous west to SW flow around the equinox that could change the SST trend. It’s certainly looking like an aggressive period from the southern ocean based on some longer term models.
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 15:37
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.
Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: General August Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote: Tue 07/08/2018 18:58
Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html
It does, but by the look of that DJF map which has warm just about everywhere, I wouldn't trust it. And usually dont.
Locked