NZ Weather Forum

A bit of a skiff of snow on Mt. Peel but nothing much.
Nice blue dome day here with one or 2 weak Cu around and a west/NW breeze.

Had a dark cloud pass over west levin 10 minutes ago no rain but the winds instantly picked up and were gusty for a couple of minutes

Winds are mixing down from 850 hPa more than forecast, it's cranking around here. A PWS at Beach Haven on the North Shore just clocked 113 km/h

Not strong here but winds from SW this morning to S then to the NE and now its NW

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 25/09/2018 16:49 Not strong here but winds from SW this morning to S then to the NE and now its NW

Upper level southwest is fair racing along judging from the satellite imagery. Coldest nights are usually the ones when the southwest flow is nearly gone, which would suggest the end of the week, not tonight.

Typical day down here in Invercargill, squally gusts over 100km/h with the driving rain which comes with it. Big reality check after two months in South East Asia.

Very windy on the west coast (SI) around Kumara beach according to my folks today, enough to shut our wind turbine down so over 80kph.

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Another cold windy day for Auckland today. Looks like a dry end to month for us meaning below average precip for September.

The EC ensemble showing more confidence of an out of season tropical depression and possible cyclone developing around the Solomon Islands in the next few days. Wind shear along with dry air will rip it to shreds before it can really get going. Its fractured remnants is one to watch in the first week of October as it may connect to the subtropics via an atmospheric river heading towards NZ.

Is it just me or is the long range EC starting to show signs of a stationary Hadley cell like we saw last November?

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Winter temperatures here today, the cold air hanging around Auckland for a few more days but it will be sunnier next few days.

Fiji Met has named Tropical Cyclone Liua currently located around the Solomon Islands. Potentially developing to a cat 2 and will head towards Australian territory in the next day or so before encountering some fatal wind shear. Seems like eastern Australia has never had a named cyclone in September in its waters according to records that date back to 1841. Last South Pacific cyclone I could find in September was around New Caledonia in 1950 with a system called 02P. Quite a rare event. It remnants may gets mixed into a subtropical depression next week but the NZ impacts still remain unclear at this stage and may miss to the east.

Another boring fine day here
I'd like to know when the interesting weather is going to start?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 27/09/2018 17:57 Another boring fine day here
I'd like to know when the interesting weather is going to start?

El Nino may give a good summer storm season to the Canterbury plains this year. Certainly a better chance this summer than last summer when it was La Nina.

Eu has been showing a bit of lightning over the eastern and central ranges of the NI tomorrow. Upper SI too. Probably will happen due to the air being so cold. Easy to get a bit of lightning when the 500mb is -28C.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Thu 27/09/2018 20:22 El Nino may give a good summer storm season to the Canterbury plains this year. Certainly a better chance this summer than last summer when it was La Nina.

May do, although last summer lots of storms came out of the Mt.Peel/4 Peaks area under La Nina.

That Mt Peel is a storm magnet. I remember finishing shearing up the Rangitata river and driving out past Mt Peel about 10 at night, had no idea there was even a storm there and was blinded by a bolt of lightning, real **** the pants matteral

Richard wrote: ↑Fri 28/09/2018 17:56 That Mt Peel is a storm magnet. I remember finishing shearing up the Rangitata river and driving out past Mt Peel about 10 at night, had no idea there was even a storm there and was blinded by a bolt of lightning, real **** the pants matteral

....that's why I called that area Thunderstorm Corner when viewed from our property in West Melton.

The NW conditions to the south of here are raising the temp up

Yes, 21C today. Some interesting forms under the NW Arch cloud when I walked into town this afternoon.

The "Blitz" showing some lightning down south Westland way from the incoming front which looks lightning active as it moves east although weakoned abit since this afternoon.
MS haven't got much potential for this as the front moves toward NZ.
Listening to Phil O'brien on RNZ tonight on AM and some weak sferics coming through

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 29/09/2018 22:40 The "Blitz" showing some lightning down south Westland way from the incoming front which looks lightning active as it moves east although weakoned abit since this afternoon.
MS haven't got much potential for this as the front moves toward NZ.
Listening to Phil O'brien on RNZ tonight on AM and some weak sferics coming through

The am radio is a useful lightning detector. The Tasman Sea lightning events can struggle to reach NZ due to the cooling effects from the sea. But big events can make it to the southern alps when the jet stream is strong. Heat waves in New South Wales can be a good predictor of the big Tasman Sea lightning events.

The cold pool moving onto the South Island tomorrow will provide some afternoon instability over the Canterbury region so perhaps October 1 will be a thunder day.

Was a fantastic sunset tonight in Rangiora.

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Neat sunset alight. That cabbage is not looking too flash

No it got that bug that kills them last year, shame because it was one of the biggest in Rangiora.

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Could be first real chance for thunderstorms today over the eastern south island.
500mb -26 and 700mb -8 some good moisture about to with the mid afternoon SW change