Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 01/09/2018 07:51

Major winter event for the South Island late Sunday/Monday by the looks. Snow to very low levels indicated.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 01/09/2018 08:06

Latest run of EC now has snow right down to 100m for Canterbury on Monday with 20-30cm above 200m, looks like it’s all on for the first low level snow event of the year!!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 01/09/2018 08:43

Someone better start a thread for this event. Looks like the central and eastern NI is in for a hit too. Where ever the low pushes the moisture into will get hit. Last year similar setup saw taihape get it and the year before saw again a similar setup hit Napier Taupo road.

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Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Sat 01/09/2018 09:04

The GFS, UKMO and EC are in pretty solid agreement for a very cold, moist and windy blow to the South Island on Sunday-Monday. The rainfall totals for Christchurch on Monday are a little concerning at present, and further afield snow looks likely to cause issues.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 01/09/2018 09:11

Oh great, just when i thought we would get through without snow, at least this time of year it wont sit around for to long.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 01/09/2018 09:15

Incoming cold snap due Sun - Mon, looking like 25 -30cm for my area, dam it

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sat 01/09/2018 10:39

True Colour Vis on Himawari showing quite a bit sand/dust getting swept out to the Tasman with this next incoming shortwave, then shortly after the longwave which will then bring in the cold!
Strong squally storms come Monday for the central upper north island......

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/09/2018 13:54

It can't snow. It's Spring. Winter finished yesterday.

Talk about Climate change?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 01/09/2018 20:40

GFS seems to be pushing it all thru quicker, should minimize the impacts of that's the case

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 01/09/2018 21:31

Razor wrote: ↑Sat 01/09/2018 20:40 GFS seems to be pushing it all thru quicker, should minimize the impacts of that's the case

Yes will clear from the south quickly from Monday lunch onwards

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/09/2018 21:53

Well, that's been the case in previous cold forecast scenarios. Hope it is in this case.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 02/09/2018 07:56

Metservice now forecasting snow down to 100m for Canterbury

Snow is expected to lower to 400 metres Sunday evening, then to 100 to 200 metres during Monday morning. Significant snow accumulations are expected above 600 metres, and accumulations could approach warning amounts above 400 metres.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 02/09/2018 12:47

Main low around 984 hPa in the Tasman has now been joined by the 2nd new low around Kaikoura at 987 hPa (Met Service ob at 12pm)). Starts to get interesting now, as this new surface low’s position later this evening will drive a lot of what happens in Canterbury IMO. Slight change in pressure and movement will make a big difference on the wrap around impact from the south. Le Bons Bay MS observation will be interesting to watch over the next 6 hours, its currently 989 hPa.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 02/09/2018 15:58

3.50pm
Kaikoura 985 hPa
2 PWS’s around Port Robinson 983.6.
Christchurch 986 hPa
Le Bons Bay 987 hPa

Surface pressure of the 2nd surface low is now below what any model run had anticipated for 3pm NZT. Also indicating that it's current central position is closer to the coast than expected at this point.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 02/09/2018 16:12

987hPa here but seen it lower than that.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 02/09/2018 16:34

One of those days here when things seem to be "holding their breath" - little wind, overcast lowering and thickening

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Sun 02/09/2018 20:37

The models all seem to have backed away on the moisture a bit except for the Kaikoura coast and eastern North Island. The wind looks potentially strong along the coast however. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the morning.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 02/09/2018 20:43

I'm driving a truck through from culverden to kaikoura tomorrow on the inland road so could be interesting.

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Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 02/09/2018 20:51

^ Safe travels, melja - looking forward to a report on the conditions if you are able

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 02/09/2018 21:06

Coming onto rain now, here. Too warm for snow, thank goodness.
Possibly a fine sunny day eventuating tomoroow and for the rest of the week.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 02/09/2018 21:18

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 02/09/2018 21:06 Coming onto rain now, here. Too warm for snow, thank goodness.
Possibly a fine sunny day eventuating tomoroow and for the rest of the week.

Geraldine and Ashburton around the 100 metre mark...in the rain zone for this event anyway

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 02/09/2018 21:54

Not expecting anything too unusual here. Had a wonderful as afternoon run on the hills this arvo

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 02/09/2018 22:02

Razor wrote: ↑Sun 02/09/2018 21:54 Not expecting anything too unusual here. Had a wonderful as afternoon run on the hills this arvo

Looks mint weather for the Dunedin marathon next weekend too...temp slowly dropping here calm conditions with light rain

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 03/09/2018 04:54

Temp here 5.8C dropping from 9C at 2am, very windy and wet.

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Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Mon 03/09/2018 08:47

What a noisy night of rain from around 2am, and a gusty, rainy morning to follow. Some purple radar echoes over the hills and it will be interesting to see how low the snow gets up there when this has blown through.

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