Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by NZstorm »

Major winter event for the South Island late Sunday/Monday by the looks. Snow to very low levels indicated.
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Latest run of EC now has snow right down to 100m for Canterbury on Monday with 20-30cm above 200m, looks like it’s all on for the first low level snow event of the year!!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: General September Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Someone better start a thread for this event. Looks like the central and eastern NI is in for a hit too. Where ever the low pushes the moisture into will get hit. Last year similar setup saw taihape get it and the year before saw again a similar setup hit Napier Taupo road.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

The GFS, UKMO and EC are in pretty solid agreement for a very cold, moist and windy blow to the South Island on Sunday-Monday. The rainfall totals for Christchurch on Monday are a little concerning at present, and further afield snow looks likely to cause issues.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Oh great, just when i thought we would get through without snow, at least this time of year it wont sit around for to long.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Richard »

Incoming cold snap due Sun - Mon, looking like 25 -30cm for my area, dam it >_<
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

True Colour Vis on Himawari showing quite a bit sand/dust getting swept out to the Tasman with this next incoming shortwave, then shortly after the longwave which will then bring in the cold!
Strong squally storms come Monday for the central upper north island......
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

It can't snow. It's Spring. Winter finished yesterday. [-X
Talk about Climate change? :rolleyes:
JohnGaul
NZThS
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Razor »

GFS seems to be pushing it all thru quicker, should minimize the impacts of that's the case
Christchurch Rocks
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Dean. »

Razor wrote: Sat 01/09/2018 20:40 GFS seems to be pushing it all thru quicker, should minimize the impacts of that's the case
Yes will clear from the south quickly from Monday lunch onwards
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Well, that's been the case in previous cold forecast scenarios. Hope it is in this case.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Bradley »

Metservice now forecasting snow down to 100m for Canterbury :D

Snow is expected to lower to 400 metres Sunday evening, then to 100 to 200 metres during Monday morning. Significant snow accumulations are expected above 600 metres, and accumulations could approach warning amounts above 400 metres.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Main low around 984 hPa in the Tasman has now been joined by the 2nd new low around Kaikoura at 987 hPa (Met Service ob at 12pm)). Starts to get interesting now, as this new surface low’s position later this evening will drive a lot of what happens in Canterbury IMO. Slight change in pressure and movement will make a big difference on the wrap around impact from the south. Le Bons Bay MS observation will be interesting to watch over the next 6 hours, its currently 989 hPa.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

3.50pm
Kaikoura 985 hPa
2 PWS’s around Port Robinson 983.6.
Christchurch 986 hPa
Le Bons Bay 987 hPa

Surface pressure of the 2nd surface low is now below what any model run had anticipated for 3pm NZT. Also indicating that it's current central position is closer to the coast than expected at this point.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

987hPa here but seen it lower than that.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Orion »

One of those days here when things seem to be "holding their breath" - little wind, overcast lowering and thickening 0_o
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Chris W »

The models all seem to have backed away on the moisture a bit except for the Kaikoura coast and eastern North Island. The wind looks potentially strong along the coast however. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the morning.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by melja »

I'm driving a truck through from culverden to kaikoura tomorrow on the inland road so could be interesting.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Orion »

^ Safe travels, melja - looking forward to a report on the conditions if you are able _b
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Coming onto rain now, here. Too warm for snow, thank goodness.
Possibly a fine sunny day eventuating tomoroow and for the rest of the week. :-(
JohnGaul
NZThS
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Dean. »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sun 02/09/2018 21:06 Coming onto rain now, here. Too warm for snow, thank goodness.
Possibly a fine sunny day eventuating tomoroow and for the rest of the week. :-(
Geraldine and Ashburton around the 100 metre mark...in the rain zone for this event anyway
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Razor »

Not expecting anything too unusual here. Had a wonderful as afternoon run on the hills this arvo
Christchurch Rocks
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Dean. »

Razor wrote: Sun 02/09/2018 21:54 Not expecting anything too unusual here. Had a wonderful as afternoon run on the hills this arvo
Looks mint weather for the Dunedin marathon next weekend too...temp slowly dropping here calm conditions with light rain
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by melja »

Temp here 5.8C dropping from 9C at 2am, very windy and wet.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Cold outbreak 2nd-3rd Sep

Unread post by Chris W »

What a noisy night of rain from around 2am, and a gusty, rainy morning to follow. Some purple radar echoes over the hills and it will be interesting to see how low the snow gets up there when this has blown through.
Locked