NZ Weather Forum

Starting off the month with a Moderate Risk of storm development along the Canterbury foothills and a band of showers moving over the western side of the North Island.

There are some signs of instability starting to show, looking from Amberley towards the foothills.

Dull and overcast down here, not looking very thunderstormic at all, although there were instabilty looking cloud around yesterday resulting in a nice sunset.

I see a fair amount of low cloud over the Canterbury Plains, that wont be helping the daytime heating

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 01/10/2018 13:26 Dull and overcast down here, not looking very thunderstormic at all, although there were instabilty looking cloud around yesterday resulting in a nice sunset.

Some beefy looking clouds starting to build around here, but there's a NW wind blowing which is not ideal

There are no risks out for coastal Canterbury later.. but I'm ignoring the fact theres not much instability with the southerly change later.
Total totals is at 50 which isnt a bad number this time of year and the models is showing a surface NE going against the S change at 7pm.
Given time of year now,I'd be saying a low risk of storms from timaru up the Canterbury plains/coast tonight.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 10:27 Given time of year now,I'd be saying a low risk of storms from timaru up the Canterbury plains/coast tonight.

Yes. Not expecting much but I'm thinking back to the surprise unforcasted evening thunderstorm we had here in Geraldine, last October on Thursday the 26th.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 12:25

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 10:27 Given time of year now,I'd be saying a low risk of storms from timaru up the Canterbury plains/coast tonight.

Yes. Not expecting much but I'm thinking back to the surprise unforcasted evening thunderstorm we had here in Geraldine, last October on Thursday the 26th.

I would call it a low risk just in case some decent surface heating does develop.

Decent heating and a clear sky with light NE wind now.

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Where meija, cloudy and gloomy in Amberly when I was down there, warm NW north of Waikari though

Was in chch when I posted, bit of high cloud in Rangiora now but no gloom

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Yes I saw that from space after getting back, it was only over Amberly and up the coast

Weak southerly through here now with a weak wall cloud moving across and a surge of wind.

Darkening up now with a few huge drops of rain. Just thinking, it would of been better to put the Low thunderstorm risk today, rather than yesterday, judging by sky conditions as yesterday, the sky, well clouds were rather flat and persisitent not allowing for clearance for ground heating.

dark skies here in Rakaia and trying to hail

correction to that, we have hail in Rakaia
. there goes our fruit for this year, the hail stones here are getting larger and now getting quite heavy. Skies very dark looking towards the north.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 18:16 Darkening up now with a few huge drops of rain. Just thinking, it would of been better to put the Low thunderstorm risk today, rather than yesterday, judging by sky conditions as yesterday, the sky, well clouds were rather flat and persisitent not allowing for clearance for ground heating.

Totally agree, after the hail storm we just had here in Rakaia, we just had a flash of lightning and a clap of thunder.

Just had thunder in rolleston. Skies are mean!!

Looking impressive in Halswell

And pic...looks to be slipping away without to much fanfare

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Just had a call from Bob Crowder who said that a friend of his reported lightning and thunder around Motukarara, this evening.

Some great looking cloud forms around this evening, right now there's stationary tall band cloud overhead atm

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 18:16 Darkening up now with a few huge drops of rain. Just thinking, it would of been better to put the Low thunderstorm risk today, rather than yesterday, judging by sky conditions as yesterday, the sky, well clouds were rather flat and persisitent not allowing for clearance for ground heating.

Today's set up had the advantage of a strongly forced cold front. Those with local knowledge could see the thunder risk.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 18:16 , it would of been better to put the Low thunderstorm risk today, rather than yesterday,

But there storm cells north of me around Kaikoura

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 20:56

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 02/10/2018 18:16 , it would of been better to put the Low thunderstorm risk today, rather than yesterday,

But there storm cells north of me around Kaikoura

Yes. Bob said there were obvious looking instability, yesterday, to the north from when he went up to his usual viewing spot up on the Port Hills.