Richard wrote: ↑Wed 24/10/2018 21:06
Yes and there were many more towns down your way too
I won't reveal today's maximum until my report after 10pm, but it was sure a hot day here as mucking around in the sun with some firewood I bought for next winter from the local Rotary.
Anyway, there some weak looking Cu clouds lurking around the 4 Peaks/Mt. Peel area, this afternoon.
Here's the best shot I took.
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It seems a powerful upper cold core cyclone will deform and interact the polar jet with the subtropical jet early next week around the top of the NI. The associated propagating Rossby wave trough and upper polar injection, makes this very interesting. If enough subtropical atmospheric fuel is drawn into this set up, it may become a cyclonic cut off surface low and deepen somewhere near the east coasts of the NI and SI.
MS will be monitoring this one quite closely, I would expect this to start coming onto the severe weather outlook today or tomorrow. Back to the popcorn
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 25/10/2018 12:03
It seems a powerful upper cold core cyclone will deform and interact the polar jet with the subtropical jet early next week around the top of the NI. The associated propagating Rossby wave trough and upper polar injection, makes this very interesting. If enough subtropical atmospheric fuel is drawn into this set up, it may become a cyclonic cut off surface low and deepen somewhere near the east coasts of the NI and SI.
MS will be monitoring this one quite closely, I would expect this to start coming onto the severe weather outlook today or tomorrow. Back to the popcorn
The 12Z EC and UK runs had this feature deepening only a little and moving away fairly quickly, but I agree, its the type of system which could very easily sit for a day east of Cook Strait deepening as it does so.
TonyT wrote: ↑Thu 25/10/2018 14:47
The 12Z EC and UK runs had this feature deepening only a little and moving away fairly quickly, but I agree, its the type of system which could very easily sit for a day east of Cook Strait deepening as it does so.
I hope not - I'm visiting Kaikoura early next week. (Mon-Wed)
Increasingly poor driving conditions heading back from Kaikõura this afternoon, and very heavy rain around Amberley as indicated by the large red radar echo. It is now dry in Chch, but some good rain for the garden and hopefully the hydro lakes.
Lovely day here in Geraldine with 21mm to 6pm and nice to see decent falls recorded at Levels as well
Lots of people I spoke today have really welcomed the rain
Heard the rain in the night. Looks like a couple mm but no idea why the station recorded nothing. No spiders to blame this this. Maybe new leaves blocking the reception
Looking like some rain for the North island later today. I don't expect too much precip here but 10mm on the cards. Fronts in this type of set up typically get a bit more active over eastern Northland/Auckland. So maybe some brief heavy falls will make it onto east Auckland overnight. Possible thunder eastern Northland as well.
NZstorm wrote: ↑Sat 27/10/2018 19:27
Dunedin Airport had thunder on the 4.30pm ob.
I wouldn't be surprised as the sky today this afternoon looked interesting.
Just had a heavy shower move through with some hail. No sound of thunder though
Took some photos which I will post later.
12mm for here. The next Tasman low looks good but it lacks a significant atmospheric river from the subtropics to make it pop. Should still deliver some reasonable falls in the next few days.
Next week is looking unsettled, with a couple of thunder chances.
Thursday the gfs has been indicating something for a few days now the 500mb temp for a start is -32!!
