General October Weather

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Tue 30/10/2018 09:38

9.7°C here at present, raining, trees tossing in the breeze, little melting bits in the rain

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Tue 30/10/2018 09:39

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 30/10/2018 07:15 Yet again like nearly all the weather systems of 2018, this current one is going to come well short of what the models predicted, were talking of 30-50mm a few days ago, had nearly 6mm so far and not looking likely to get much more.

Over 30mm from the event with heavy rain still falling

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 30/10/2018 10:34

19mm last 24h in Rangiora and 40mm for the last 7 days, still chucking down too.

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 30/10/2018 12:14

Dean. wrote: ↑Tue 30/10/2018 09:39
Richard wrote: ↑Tue 30/10/2018 07:15 Yet again like nearly all the weather systems of 2018, this current one is going to come well short of what the models predicted, were talking of 30-50mm a few days ago, had nearly 6mm so far and not looking likely to get much more.
Over 30mm from the event with heavy rain still falling

That 30-50mm for Culverden, but then this is a low rainfall area anyway

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 30/10/2018 13:14

Richard wrote:Yet again like nearly all the weather systems of 2018, this current one is going to come well short of what the models predicted, were talking of 35-50mm a few days ago, had nearly 6mm so far and not looking likely to get much more.

We have been well short on this event too. Was expecting 30-50mm based on GFS, EC, and UK. Not even 20mm so far.

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GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 30/10/2018 13:28

56mm in West Auckland so far (L7 days) - it will help a bit with the dryness of my lawn!

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 30/10/2018 14:52

Unseasonably chilly day in Akl... touched 15C here around 9.30am briefly but been only 12-13C since 10am.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 30/10/2018 16:03

Up to 29mm in Rangiora, stopped now.

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Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 30/10/2018 17:55

Mod Note:
As we have a thread about today's deep M6.2 quake near Taumarunui in the Seismic/Volcanic section in Off Topic, I've moved a couple of related posts here to that thread.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 30/10/2018 18:12

Once again no risks out tomorrow night for Canterbury. But I reakon heavy showers/ hail chance thunderstorms up the coast with a strong SW change.
The SW change arrives after dark but definitely a low risk for me again. However this time will be NW before the change so no onshore winds like about 3 weeks ago.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 30/10/2018 22:51

............immmmmm thinking about this Mikey

dosen't look all that promising. Timing? ....and the NW at the surface.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 31/10/2018 06:59

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 30/10/2018 22:51 ............immmmmm thinking about this Mikey
dosen't look all that promising. Timing? ....and the NW at the surface.

Local surface NW yes john but strong S change. Timing is not good but again given time of year.. would not be surprised with heavy showers/ hail. It warrants a low risk atleast out. 700mb -8 500mb -28

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 31/10/2018 07:40

Tomorrow afternoon over the upper North Island has the best storm potential by the looks of 12Z models. Eastern Waikato/Coromandal/Bay of Plenty could get some good hailers.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 31/10/2018 07:48

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 06:59
Local surface NW yes john but strong S change. Timing is not good but again given time of year.. would not be surprised with heavy showers/ hail. It warrants a low risk atleast out. 700mb -8 500mb -28

With 700mb temp -8C I like to see surface dewpoint of about 8C +.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 31/10/2018 08:16

This October was possibly the most settled October we have had in my memory.

Some hail Canterbury -Waikato tomorrow to start November

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 31/10/2018 15:35

NZstorm wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 07:48
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 06:59
Local surface NW yes john but strong S change. Timing is not good but again given time of year.. would not be surprised with heavy showers/ hail. It warrants a low risk atleast out. 700mb -8 500mb -28

With 700mb temp -8C I like to see surface dewpoint of about 8C +.

Nice drop of snow over Mt. Peel with the latest cold bout of weather.
Nice easterly breeze here at the moment with a DP of 9.4C.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 31/10/2018 15:49

Just back from a few days in Kaikoura. Cold and wet all day in town yesterday; rain was quite heavy on a few occasions, plus a fresh to strong southerly. But went further north to Kekerengu for lunch and there were only a few spits.

All cleared up by this morning, with fresh snow above about 1100-1200m on Seaward Kaikouras.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 31/10/2018 18:05

tich wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 15:49

All cleared up by this morning, with fresh snow above about 1100-1200m on Seaward Kaikouras.

Looks quite a thick coating too

mattyj46 · Unread post by **mattyj46** » Wed 31/10/2018 19:22

Crisp morning down here in Invercargill, had the ice on the windscreen this morning. Nice day up until about 3.45pm when the change hit with the windshift and rain. Needless to say Social Cricket was a washout for the second Wednesday in a row, who schedules Social Cricket for October in Invercargill!!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 31/10/2018 21:02

There should be a lot of lightning in the Tasman on Saturday, and some lightning should affect the SI West Coast/Alps. A hot airmass over NSW Friday will be in the Tasman on Saturday which may favour elevated storms. I see Sydney's forecast temp on Friday 37C.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 31/10/2018 21:05

NZstorm wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 21:02 There should be a lot of lightning in the Tasman on Saturday, and some of this should make it onto the SI West Coast/Alps. A hot airmass over NSW Friday will be in the Tasman on Saturday which may favour elevated storms. I see Sydney's forecast temp on Friday 37C.

what do you think the chances of spill over lightning are

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 31/10/2018 21:32

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 31/10/2018 21:05 what do you think the chances of spill over lightning are

Possibly into MacKenzie lakes but not much further east.

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 01/11/2018 08:50

October summary for my station:

Mean temp = 13.9C
Mean daily high = 19.0C
Mean daily low = 9.2C
Highest temp = 22.4C (21st)
Lowest temp = 4.7C (14th)
Total rainfall = 81mm

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 01/11/2018 09:17

my Oct main stats

Mean daily temp - 14.9c , 0.7c above average
Total rainfall 51mm, 48% below average

Year to date
Mean daily temp 16.1c , 1.3c above average
Rainfall 1135mm, 120mm above average

Trend - last 4 months have been below average rainfall, mean daily temp continues above average.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Thu 01/11/2018 09:26

My stats from Swanson (West Auckland)
Temperature
High (20th) 22.4 °C
Low (14th) 4.8 °C
Avg 13.8 °C
Rainfall 104.6mm

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