General November Weather

[David]

Bit of an unsettled start to the month. A little heavy rain band has just passed through this morning, and looking set to get quite windy today.

[Razor]

I'm in Invercargill after 4 days on Stewart Island. What a stunning place that is complete with its 10 seasons every day

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[David]

Brief but impressive deluge just passed through Howick - up to 158mm/hr on the weather station and a bit squally too

[Cyclone Tracy]

Clocked a rate of 131 mm/hr here very briefly. Interesting day for parts of the NI today.....getting some surface heating between the showers at the moment here. Coldest air aloft arrives from mid afternoon, could be 45 to 48c differences from surface to 500 hPa. Latest Access R has winds 50 knots at 850 hPa, so there is going to be some decent gusts mixing downward.

[spwill]

Bay of Plenty and eastern Waikato getting some Tstorm cells last hr or two.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Wind wise, a robust south westerly squeeze zone is developing into Auckland. Multiple PWS's on this side of the harbour have now clocked 100 km/h + gusts.

[spwill]

A decent looking Tstorm in North Waikato now, I should have chased today.

[NZstorm]

Those cells in northeast Waikato showing reflectivity of 60dBZ. That must be very heavy hail.

Windy in Auckland late this afternoon with Airport averaging up to 30knots

[melja]

Let's see how this plays out.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108281 ... g-november

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[RWood]

Let's see how this plays out.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108281 ... g-november

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Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...

[wembley]

I'll believe that when I actually see it.

[TonyT]

Let's see how this plays out.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108281 ... g-november

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Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...

If its a 40-45% chance of being warmer, then the most likely outcome is a cooler or near normal summer, being what the 55-60% chance represents. So the headline conclusion of "a hot three months" is not supported by the outlook as released.

I would note that every analogue season to this one I look at had a colder than normal December.

[RWood]

Wouldn't be surprised if the "warmer" probability gets downgraded when their December-February outlook appears.

[Nev]

Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…

[Chris W]

Well, we are certainly starting off with strong wind this weekend, and warmth for eastern areas in the same period. It looks like that may also occur early next week, at least the warmth, from the BOM charts. I wouldn't know about 'scorching, I rarely use that term unless it's happening at the time!

[TonyT]

Well, we are certainly starting off with strong wind this weekend, and warmth for eastern areas in the same period. It looks like that may also occur early next week, at least the warmth, from the BOM charts. I wouldn't know about 'scorching, I rarely use that term unless it's happening at the time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZMUAd7OJc8

[RWood]

Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...

If its a 40-45% chance of being warmer, then the most likely outcome is a cooler or near normal summer, being what the 55-60% chance represents. So the headline conclusion of "a hot three months" is not supported by the outlook as released.

I would note that every analogue season to this one I look at had a colder than normal December.

How many analogue seasons did you find?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…

I remember in my young days, Show WE in Christchurch was always "Hot with a NW blowing".
That hasn't happened for years.
Maybe we had cold winters in the 1960/70s's and in November, then when it warmed up to temperatures that were much warmer than previous, it felt as though, it was hot. I remember dust flying around as well, whilst watching a few events. .

[TonyT]

How many analogue seasons did you find?

The strongest is 2009, but 2002 and 2014 are significant. All El Nino years.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Wet looking to the radar this evening but nothing here?

[Chris Raine]

Virga

[Orion]

Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…

I remember in my young days, Show WE in Christchurch was always "Hot with a NW blowing".
That hasn't happened for years.
Maybe we had cold winters in the 1960/70s's and in November, then when it warmed up to temperatures that were much warmer than previous, it felt as though, it was hot. I remember dust flying around as well, whilst watching a few events. .

It snowed in Ashburton just before Show Day 1976...

I think the Show is a week later than it was? to accommodate Melbourne Cup betting. Different venue now too.

[melja]

Quite cold this NW system so far, was only 4C at the top of Arthur's pass last evening and raining.
This morning in Kumara it's heavy rain and only 7C.

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[mattyj46]

Was already feeling a balmy 17c just after 8am here in Invercargill, rain imminent though.

[melja]

Temp jumped up to 14C here in Kumara with the arrival of a true NW. Gusts of 70kph recorded up on wind turbine. 30mm of rain since about 4am when it started.

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