Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

[Cyclone Tracy]

Veronica is now at a sustained 110 knots (1 min average). Fast approaching an Oz scale cat 5. JTWC has also upgraded their forecast for her to be 140 knots within 24 hours making her a cat 5 U.S scale.

On the topic of chasing, i-cyclone, the undisputed global king of tropical cyclone chasers would be sizing up Australia right now I'm guessing. When he arrives in your part of the world, its time to leave.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Veronica is currently super bombing and is now significant RI annular tropical cyclone. Down to 930 hPa and 125 knots. Based on these U.S readings, she is now a cat 5 Oz scale. The BoM probably still have their mouths in the 'WOW' position and have yet to upgrade her.

She has now dropped around 70 hPa in 28 hours

[jamie]

Crazy quick intensification.

Josh (icyclone) is in the uk promoting the premier of his tv show so not chasing this.


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[Cyclone Tracy]

Yes, I just saw that before with i-cyclone. Last year he ditched Hurricane Florence on the U.S east coast near landfall to chase Typhoon Mangkhut in the Philippines with only a few hours to spare and punched its inner cat 5 eyewall. This would be killing him watching it going off in OZ and he's stuck in the U.K.

TC Veronica - ADT method and JTWC maintaining her around 930 hPa and 125 knots. High frequency lightning continuing within the inner eyewall. Microwave imagery showing no sign of any eyewall replacement cycle at this stage.

TC Trevor - Now fully into the Gulf of Carpentaria and showing good structure again as a cat 2. Environment over the next 36 hours is prime for rapid intensification.

I can't recall the Australian region ever having two cat 5 cyclones at the same time before (correct me if I'm wrong). It may not happen but there will be a chance in the next 48 hours if current conditions remain in these areas.

[tornado]

watch the video on weatherwatch nz. that tells us what the cyclones are going to do

[Thunder081]

I like the rain radar timelapse of trevor on this website http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 9-03-21-08

[Cyclone Tracy]

A rapid intensification (RI) cyclone is one that has an increase of a maximum 1-min sustained winds at least 30 knots within 24 hours. Tropical cyclone Veronica has seen a 75 knot increase in 24 hours off the W.A coastline. Captured here on microwave imagery.

[David]

I note that despite the rapid increase in intensity, JTWC do have Veronica actually weakening substantially before landfall

[Cyclone Tracy]

I note that despite the rapid increase in intensity, JTWC do have Veronica actually weakening substantially before landfall

Yes, EC is showing Veronica getting smashed by vertical wind shear on the approach to land which I think JTWC are going with for the moment. Other models like GFS, HWRF and the UK bring her in very strong which the BoM are sticking with on their latest map.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Veronica has struggled with some dry air today but still maintaining cat 4 status. TC Trevor looking stronger by the hour and closing in on cat 4. Veronica's eyewall lightning has ceased for the moment but Trevor is showing higher frequency strikes in the last hour as he matured again. Interesting 24 hours ahead.

[TonyT]

TC Veronica has struggled with some dry air today but still maintaining cat 4 status. TC Trevor looking stronger by the hour and closing in on cat 4. Veronica's eyewall lightning has ceased for the moment but Trevor is showing higher frequency strikes in the last hour as he matured again. Interesting 24 hours ahead.

Could be a commentary for Married at First Sight Australia.

[Cyclone Tracy]

-TC Veronica has undergone a eyewall replacement cycle overnight which has weakened her slightly. Still Cat 4 and attempting to regathering herself. Port Hedland may get a direct hit with the ridge steering her more south easterly this morning.

-TC Trevor has gained plenty of strength and has a solid inner structure. ADT method has him at 107 knots, into the 940's hPa at 7.30am NZT and gaining.

[tornado]

i wonder how powerful this twin cyclones going to be when they hit australia as

[Nev]

This morning's BoM track-maps…

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Trevor's eyewall is now interacting with land near Centre Island N.T. Nearest BoM ob is coming into the eyewall (1pm NZT) 988 hPa and falling with wind gusts now getting up to 120 km/h.

[Willoughby]

Amazing sat pic this morning!


Should be strong thunderstorms to our south this afternoon caused by gravity waves from Trevor so going to be good to get out on the road again.

australia_true_color[1].png

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Veronica eyewall now approaching land in W.A. Pressure dropping and wind speeds on BoM sites showing over 100 km/h on the southern side. The northern side around Port Hedland will start spiking shortly. BoM currently has her as a cat 3.


7.20am (NZT) images

[Willoughby]

My mate is in Point Samson, 15 km north of Roebourne. They're getting smacked right now with sustained winds of 170 km/h+.

[tgsnoopy]

My mate is in Point Samson, 15 km north of Roebourne. They're getting smacked right now with sustained winds of 170 km/h+.

One of the OzCyclone guys?

[Chris Raine]

I see TC Veronica is trundling west now and weakening .The eye(centre) did not make landfall ,Roebourne Airport has had a period of sustained gales for 24 hour now easing slowly

[Thunder081]

Pretty interesting radar timelapse of TC Veronica

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 9-03-25-20

[Willoughby]

One of the OzCyclone guys?

No.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The monsoon is back just to the north of Australia and has a good potential of spawning 2 tropical depressions in the coming 4 to 6 days. 1 of those (invest 97S) is likely to become TC Wallace off the north west coast of W.A Sunday or Monday.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical Cyclone Wallace has been born.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Final day of the official 2018/19 season , although a strong MJO pulse is a chance of producing an out of season storm in a couple of weeks around the south pacific convergence zone.

South Pacific had a below average season based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated, compared to the 1981 to 2010 climatology. TC Oma won the battle of the largest amount of energy. Trevor was the lowest pressure at 952 hPa.

Southern Hemisphere had a well above average ACE score with the Indian Ocean producing some devastating tropical cyclonic gyres, some of which smashed into the east African coast. TC Oma only ranked 8th on the overall Southern hemisphere list.