Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, the 8 named TC's in the South Pacific/Coral Sea this season (incl. Sep's TC Liua) is below its 1981-2010 average of 10.4 TC's, and only just within NIWA's Oct prediction of 8-12 named TC's.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Increased number of EC ensemble members are producing a tropical depression around the Solomon Islands later this week. Potential for an out of season tropical cyclone has increased for the South West Pacific.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Invest 94P now exists for the weak tropical depression around the Solomon Islands. American models are keen for further development, others not so much at this stage. If a TC were to be born, any movement beyond 20 degrees south will be met with hostile wind shear.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The BoM and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have a different outlook on invest 94P you could say. Considering 94P's more defined structure in the last 24 hours, I can understand why JTWC have it on the medium chance watch list.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Tropical Cyclone Ann has been born. An embarrassing 24 hour backflip by the BoM after declaring no chance of a cyclone formation in the Coral sea. One can only imagine that the BoM only took the EC ensemble into account and not the UK and GEFS ensembles. JTWC showing the BoM that they are seasonal amateurs :smile:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Deep convection now wrapping around Ann with a hot tower appearing in the northern quadrant. Australian weather observers waking up and being shocked to see deep breathing TC in their waters :smile:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Ann is warming up. Intense lightning from inner NE quadrant are she tries to build an eyewall. ADT estimating method now has her down to 992 hPa and 57 knots sustained 1 min winds. Becoming a strong cat 1, bordering Cat 2.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

BoM elevates Ann to a cat 2 this morning. She is around 985 hPa, sustained 1 min winds of 55 knots. GFS was the only model that projected this level of intensity in the last week of runs.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

8.40am NZT IR sat image with lightning and BoM track map.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

TC Ann looking a little more ragged this afternoon as a dry air pocket has been corroding the deep convection. BoM now have her as a high Cat 1.

Longer term: with neutral conditions ahead, the BoM and JTWC have her crossing the far north Queesnland coast as a Cat 1 on Wednesday. If she does, this will be the first May Queensland crossing since 1989.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

TC Ann is now an EX-TC losing her category 1 status this afternoon and will most likely cross the Queensland coast as a tropical low. Great performance by TC Ann to achieve a Cat 2 status in mid May :smile:
Post Reply