Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)

[Thunder081]

Haha I liked this post Mr Tracy made

[TonyT]

HAHA some of it is in one ear and out the other... I have to agree with you there!

Google is your friend. Best way to learn is to understand the why before the what.

[snowchaser01]

HAHA some of it is in one ear and out the other... I have to agree with you there!

Google is your friend. Best way to learn is to understand the why before the what.

Thanks Tony, getting there!

[jamie]

Rain is much earlier than MetService 48hr graphs show. It’s just starting now when it’s not due according to their forecast until 10am


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[snowchaser01]

Good morning! Latest gfs attached for CHCH once again. Second low later in the week showing up again.
Also a slight moisture increase for this time around. Also in regards to what Jamie mentioned about it being early.... It does seem like the 3 day maps on Metservice are about 6 hours behind what is actually occurring on the live radars. Interesting day ahead!

[Chris W]

The early morning Chch convergence has arrived again, heavy too.

[snowchaser01]

The early morning Chch convergence has arrived again, heavy too.

Interesting, very interesting indeed. The rain band up north sure looks impressive on radar.

[snowchaser01]

Here is a view of that convergence line. I'm on the northern side of it.

[snowykiwi]

Just started to rain here in Rakaia.

[Razor]

Well it's certainly tipping it down here at home this morning

[snowykiwi]

Rain has just stopped and the skies are brightening up. I’m getting the gum boots from our garage this morning in case we need them on Monday. With the rain that is coming I will be interested to see how Dry Creek in Methven looks early in the week. It certainly has not lived up to it’s name last Tuesday.

[Chris W]

Good job that stopped, I'm off out for a run soon!

[David]

TS outlook from Metservice:

Valid to: Midnight Saturday 24 Nov 2018

Issued at: 8:55am Saturday 24 Nov 2018

A front currently crossing northern New Zealand this morning continues to move southwards over central New Zealand this afternoon and evening and gradually weakens. There is a broad low risk of elevated thunderstorms over northern and western parts of the North Island and also the top of the South Island with the passage of this front, as indicated on the chart.

Another more active front is forecast to move onto the northern North Island later today, bringing further rain with heavy falls. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Northland and northern parts of Auckland from this afternoon. These thunderstorms are expected to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail, with a low risk that some of these thunderstorms could be SEVERE producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. There is also a low risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS and LOCALISED DOWNPOURS spreading onto the remainder of Auckland and the north of Coromandel Peninsula from this afternoon, as indicated on the chart.

Note, if any SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS or LOCALISED DOWNPOURS do eventuate they are likely to cause surface and/or flash flooding and lead to hazardous driving conditions.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

[Bradley]

I’d be interested to know what Kaikoura’s wettest ever month was, the latest data from
EC has it receiving 300-350mm over the next 5 days, surely close to its wettest month or at least it’s wettest November if it eventuates...

[Dean.]

I’d be interested to know what Kaikoura’s wettest ever month was, the latest data from
EC has it receiving 300-350mm over the next 5 days, surely close to its wettest month or at least it’s wettest November if it eventuates...

Whats the latest on EC for Mid Canterbury?

[Thunder081]

Here is a view of that convergence line. I'm on the northern side of it.

That looks like a kelvin helmholtz cloud!!

[Bradley]

I’d be interested to know what Kaikoura’s wettest ever month was, the latest data from
EC has it receiving 300-350mm over the next 5 days, surely close to its wettest month or at least it’s wettest November if it eventuates...

Whats the latest on EC for Mid Canterbury?

40mm for the next 5 days for Ashburton, approx 60mm for Chch, Darfield etc but a noticeable increase from the Waimak northwards so 120mm for Culverden etc then you can double that again for the coast around Kaikoura...

[Cyclone Tracy]

Centre of circulation on the Tasman cyclone slightly moved back west in the last 6 hours. All the normal follow on impacts on troughs, fronts, coastal wind convergence to follow in the next 6 hours as the puppet strings are pulled. Models are smoking trying to keep up on each run

[snowchaser01]

There has been an update on the 3day maps on Metservice which poses higher rainfall rates in Christchurch both tomorrow morning and monday night. interesting.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The battle of cold and warm in the middle levels is continuing at the centre of the Tasman cyclone. Warm moist air winning on this rotation, changing the status of the occluded front. Battle is not finished though. MS will be busy updating surface charts today

[TonyT]

Centre of circulation on the Tasman cyclone slightly moved back west in the last 6 hours. All the normal follow on impacts on troughs, fronts, coastal wind convergence to follow in the next 6 hours as the puppet strings are pulled. Models are smoking trying to keep up on each run

Given the variations from one model run to the next, I'm suspicious about what they are smoking!

Anyone else noticed that over the last 4-5 days, (at least in terms of rainfall accumulations predicted for the Canty area), the GFS seems to be mirroring each EC run from 12 hours earlier?

[snowchaser01]

Auckland getting nailed currently... Impressive looking radar image.

[cbm]

The area of rain is certainly well aligned with Auckland and Northland, presume by chance. Hoping that lot will miss here, well past point of needing any more rain for the garden.

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[David]

Auckland getting nailed currently... Impressive looking radar image.

Looks more like Northland getting it... only the bottom edge has clipped us with some light rain

[GraemeWi]

We are just passing 50mm since midnight in Swanson, we have had some heavy bursts 30mm/hr and 25mm/hr in a couple of the hits