Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)

[Richard]

The area of rain is certainly well aligned with Auckland and Northland, presume by chance. Hoping that lot will miss here, well past point of needing any more rain for the garden.

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Did some digging in the garden this morning and found it still quite dry that's dispite getting 63mm for the month

[jamie]

The area of rain is certainly well aligned with Auckland and Northland, presume by chance. Hoping that lot will miss here, well past point of needing any more rain for the garden.

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You are kidding right? We could still have 50mm more and not be at the point of not needing any more. Ground is so dry!


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[NZstorm]

Lightning activity in North Tasman showing signs of increase.
The short wave trough will reach Northland later today and crosses Auckland early morning.

[Cyclone Tracy]

25mm here so far. That slight movement west from the Tasman cyclone's centre a few hours ago, has moved the converging surface winds around Auckland further south than most models had projected on the 23/11 12z run. Allowing the convergence zone to dip further south by about 50 km. It's the little wiggles that make all the difference. Flow on affects for all parts of the NI and SI in some ways. Another cut off low making the mince meat of the models on the mesoscale level

[snowchaser01]

25mm here so far. That slight movement west from the Tasman cyclone's centre a few hours ago, has moved the converging surface winds around Auckland further south than most models had projected on the 23/11 12z run. Allowing the convergence zone to dip further south by about 50 km. It's the little wiggles that make all the difference. Flow on affects for all parts of the NI and SI in some ways. Another cut off low making the mince meat of the models on the mesoscale level

As always your input is appreciated CT. Just wondering if you have an opinion on the impacts down here?

[Cyclone Tracy]

25mm here so far. That slight movement west from the Tasman cyclone's centre a few hours ago, has moved the converging surface winds around Auckland further south than most models had projected on the 23/11 12z run. Allowing the convergence zone to dip further south by about 50 km. It's the little wiggles that make all the difference. Flow on affects for all parts of the NI and SI in some ways. Another cut off low making the mince meat of the models on the mesoscale level

As always your input is appreciated CT. Just wondering if you have an opinion on the impacts down here?

Almost impossible to know SC on a regional level, as that main Tasman cyclone is cut off from the normal westerly flow, its pin the tail on the donkey sort of stuff. The next unknown is when the 2nd surface low NW of the NI will start to circulate from the rogue 2nd upper cyclonic vortex. This will create a fujiwhara effect when it happens. Forecasting nightmare for rainfall totals

[snowchaser01]

As always your input is appreciated CT. Just wondering if you have an opinion on the impacts down here?

Almost impossible to know SC on a regional level, as that main Tasman cyclone is cut off from the normal westerly flow, its pin the tail on the donkey sort of stuff. The next unknown is when the 2nd surface low NW of the NI will start to circulate from the rogue 2nd upper cyclonic vortex. This will create a fujiwhara effect when it happens. Forecasting nightmare for rainfall totals

Cheers, and yes proving a nightmare to predict. Popcorn time!

[RODALCO]

The three day forecast was spot on. Rain supposed to start at 0400 hours and so it did. Initially I wasn't to happy as I had two bags with cement outside, uncovered (pretty silly). Later today around 1300 hours during the dry period I drilled the two piles for a concrete slab and used the cement. At the moment dry in Titirangi with low hanging clouds. It looks like there is more crap weather for Auckland on its way later tonight/early morning.

[NZstorm]

It looks like there is more crap weather for Auckland on its way later tonight/early morning.

Front atleast does clear away early and Sunday and Mondays weather could be quite reasonable for Auckland with high's 23C.

I recorded 25mm today.

[cbm]

The area of rain is certainly well aligned with Auckland and Northland, presume by chance. Hoping that lot will miss here, well past point of needing any more rain for the garden.

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You are kidding right? We could still have 50mm more and not be at the point of not needing any more. Ground is so dry!


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Maybe have had more rain being 40km South or I'm speaking just from a townie viewpoint not a farmer. But my soil is nicely moist from surface as far as care to dig. No dry layers at all. It rained Wednesday evening here for quite some time think it was quite localised.

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[jamie]

Wow our soil is not wet like that at all


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[David]

I recorded 25mm today.

24mm here. Close to what GFS was predicting. I see GFS predicting a similar amount tomorrow, and again on Tuesday.

Interesting the forecast high was way off today... Metservice had 22C - hasn't risen above 17.0C here today (and that was at 3:30am this morning)

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting the forecast high was way off today... Metservice had 22C - hasn't risen above 17.0C here today (and that was at 3:30am this morning)

You get that down here.
Been overcast all day here with intermittent rain, not like yesterday's downpour.
Feel sorry for the people at the Orari races and the Waimate A & P show, which always seems to be affected by wet weather. 6.7mm here so far, today, and the soil here is wet, as you dig down. No wonder, as we have had nearly 200mm of rain so far this month and according to this morning's Timaru Herald, it is supposed to rain every day until December the 2nd

[NZstorm]

I recorded 25mm today.

24mm here. Close to what GFS was predicting. I see GFS predicting a similar amount tomorrow, and again on Tuesday.

Interesting the forecast high was way off today... Metservice had 22C - hasn't risen above 17.0C here today (and that was at 3:30am this morning)

Both Auckland Airport and Ardmore Airport showing a high of 19C this afternoon. Unfortunately the clearance came in later than expected. Looks like Kerikeri was the warmest town in NZ today with 22C.

[snowchaser01]

Just come up round summit road for a look. Howling easterlies with steady rain. Can see the clouds flying across the road infront of me. Will post a video later.

[Razor]

Just come up round summit road for a look. Howling easterlies with steady rain. Can see the clouds flying across the road infront of me. Will post a video later.

Been watching the radar. Odd setup going on, dry as a bone here less than 1km from you

[Chris W]

Tipping down again now, seems to just be the central and eastern areas of town plus the peninsula getting rain at the moment. It has been quite windy all evening.

Edit - bordering torrential now.

[Chris Raine]

Great weather in Southland .Warm with an easterly breeze .No sign of any rain for the next five days

[Bradley]

Wow EC now only forecasting 30mm in Christchurch for the event, been basically on a downward trajectory rainfall wise the last 3-4 days

[snowchaser01]

Wow EC now only forecasting 30mm in Christchurch for the event, been basically on a downward trajectory rainfall wise the last 3-4 days

GFS going for about 70mm now.

[TonyT]

Wow EC now only forecasting 30mm in Christchurch for the event, been basically on a downward trajectory rainfall wise the last 3-4 days

Almost all the predictions of this event for the last week have been modelling a rain shadow area west of Banks Peninsula which the models often use to reduce forecast totals for Christchurch city (probably correctly based on past similar events). The extent to which the city is under this rain shadow area or not is a big factor in these fluctuating predicted rainfall totals. You dont need to go too far from central Chch on the latest EC run and you are back into the 50mm+ zone which has been more consistently covering most of the Plains.

[Razor]

I'm recalling that event a couple of years back when Rangiora etc. got over 100mm in short order, meanwhile in Chch we nearly missed it all

I'm also recalling this time last year when we were deep into a 50 day dry spell

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks likely now it might become a drizzly event, except few a few showers moving SE ward from the west, as long as it dosen't downpour like yesterday, here.

[Thunder081]

Here's the Tasman Sea Storm engine room

[David]

Very little eventuated up north overnight it appears. And not a lot of rainfall to come on the radar...