Deep Low to Impact NZ... AGAIN (24th to 28th Nov)

[David]

Distant thunder heard here, looks like S/SE Auckland from the radar

[melja]

Nothing happening in kaikoura, cloudy and dry as far as 130pm.
SH 1 south of kaikoura closing at 6pm for some reason, not sure why as no water anywhere.

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[Chris W]

Overnight tonight through Wednesday looks very wet for Kaikõura, so they're likely getting ahead of that.

[Chris Raine]

Drying out in Southland with a fresh to strong easterly and temps in the low 20's .Good for gardening and lawn mowing .No sign of any substantive rain here until end of next week may be

[Thunder081]

All the rain in the lower North Island so far the Tararuas and Rimutakas are blocking a lot of that easterly rain.

[spwill]

Non thunderstorm showers here around the middle of the day( photo) otherwise partly cloudy and a little on the humid side.

I see last hr the Whangarei area has had thunderstorms, the city showing 33.2mm on the 4pm MS reading

[Twister]

Quite an energized thunderstorm to the north and West of Mangawhai right now...

[GraemeWi]

IMG_2346a.JPG

Quite a nice anvil off to the north - not sure if it the Whangarei one or something closer that isn't showing on the radar

[NZstorm]

Can see that cb to north too. Radar showing hail core heading toward Leigh.

[David]

PWS near Whangarei shows >100mm rain this afternoon https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... =INTLHORA4

[snowchaser01]

Certainly looking wet for much of Canterbury tomorrow afternoon. Mostly north of Christchurch...but the city could see 50mm I'd say... more the further north you go.

[David]

A cell blew up south of here this evening. Here's a pic I took on my evening walk.

[Richard]

This weather system has completely bamboozled the computer models, like so many before, only had 14mm so far and may not break the 20mm mark.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. I've given up on this topic now as the only weather to expect from this system is overcast and boring days for the rest of the week

Roll on the next trough

[Dean.]

Yes a lot of whoohaa over a little rain really

[spwill]

A cell blew up south of here this evening. Here's a pic I took on my evening walk.

Photo I took on my evening walk

[melja]

No rain over night again, only 3mm of drizzle yesterday.
If you were to read FB we should be underwater by now.

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[Chris Raine]

The models show the rain is coming your way melja tomorrow

[Richard]

The models show the rain is coming your way melja tomorrow

Is and will are two words that all the TV3 weather presenters deliberately use instead of 'could, may' etc, why i dont know.

[03Stormchaser]

While the heavy rain is still forcasted, we should have already had 30-50mm based on model runs and forecasts, not the 10mm were sitting on.

[03Stormchaser]

Also over 80mm this month compared to the 1mm in November 2017!

[NZstorm]

Tomorrow Wednesday looks potentially a very thundery day for Waitomo through to Bay of Plenty.
GFS showing lifted index values of -5.

[jamie]

Tomorrow Wednesday looks potentially a very thundery day for Waitomo through to Bay of Plenty.
GFS showing lifted index values of -5.

Those major days seem to often blow out early


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[melja]

The forecast says rain today with some heavy falls this afternoon for chch but clouds are breaking and it's sunny in Woolston currently.

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[Tornado Tim]

Those major days seem to often blow out early

Yes, the lack of a cap can really hinder a setup where stuff initiates early then the cold outflow and cloud remnants hinder any decent remaining dtsh.

Also with the setup tomorrow winds are variable and light with height which means a cell collapse will be quick.