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Re: General November Weather
Posted: Wed 28/11/2018 19:53
by talbotmj15
Interesting looking ahead GFS seems to be picking up a very deep depression getting down into the low 930s hpa up off the North Queensland coast. Certainly one to watch as it could develop into the first Cyclone of the season. At around the same time a very big low pressure system moves up and across the bight of Australia. Will be interested to see how this all plays out. Still a week away and given recent inconsistencies it will probably fall apart.
General December Weather
Posted: Wed 28/11/2018 22:20
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Looks likely this recent 'clagg' weather over us here in South Canterbury may clear as more anticyclones set to move in over, from the first week of December...
...but then there could be some "'rodents up your sleeve", ie Southerly changes, etc ?
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Wed 28/11/2018 23:28
by TonyT
talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Wed 28/11/2018 19:53
Interesting looking ahead GFS seems to be picking up a very deep depression getting down into the low 930s hpa up off the North Queensland coast. Certainly one to watch as it could develop into the first Cyclone of the season. At around the same time a very big low pressure system moves up and across the bight of Australia. Will be interested to see how this all plays out. Still a week away and given recent inconsistencies it will probably fall apart.
Solar equatorial coronal hole will be earth facing in a few days time, and these often seem to precede TC formation by about a week when surface conditions are right, so I suspect you are on to something. Plus add in CT's hints of action in the tropics early December and I think we might have a winner here.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 29/11/2018 12:18
by Razor
So a continuation of the lottery we've had in November? Its been harder to pick than a broken nose lately
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 29/11/2018 14:42
by David
Metservice talking about heavy rain and gales in the upper NI on Dec 1st. Not seeing anything particularly noteworthy in either GFS or ECMWF however...
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Sat 01/12/2018 12:23
by Cyclone Tracy
Watching this one closely. EC ensemble is fairly conservative 3 to 4 weeks out and considering the current tropical wave near the equator, Christmas to New Year is starting to look a little volatile for NZ.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Sun 02/12/2018 16:17
by NZstorm
Looks like Milford Sound may have todays Maximum with 26C.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Mon 03/12/2018 12:05
by Razor
13 of the last 14 days have received precipitation here of some sort. And 21 of the last 30.
Quite an amazing contrast to last years 50 day dry spell.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Mon 03/12/2018 12:32
by melja
Very la Nina
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Re: General December Weather
Posted: Tue 04/12/2018 08:45
by Razor
Fascinating battle in our skies this morning. Blazing warm sunshine above, patch easterly clag to east and north and nice looking CB developments to the west. And large raindrops on the windscreen from that clear blue sky above on the drive into town
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Tue 04/12/2018 14:18
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Horray!
At last a fine and sunny day with the NW kicking in and hitting 26C.
One or 2 Cu around but a generally fine and sunny day with heaps of blue sky which haven't been around since the 17th of last month.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Tue 04/12/2018 18:16
by Richard
Been a while since there's being strong NW winds, quite nice after so many days of gloom. 23 the high
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Tue 04/12/2018 22:41
by Razor
We got to 29 here. Awesomeness
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 04:44
by melja
18mm last evening I'm Rangiora.
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Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 05:46
by Richard
14 in total here
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 07:14
by NZstorm
Looks warm to hot for inland parts of the country over the weekend and on Monday some 30C readings on the cards for inland North Island.
Cooler distured SW flow could be on the way for the middle of the month.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 09:53
by cbm
NZstorm wrote: ↑Thu 06/12/2018 07:14
Looks warm to hot for inland parts of the country over the weekend and on Monday some 30C readings on the cards for inland North Island.
Cooler distured SW flow could be on the way for the middle of the month.
See that on the GFS but the EC has other ideas
Dec15_model_disparity.jpg
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 10:48
by Cyclone Tracy
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 64,-63.881
Low stratospheric polar vortex is breaking up as solar radiation increases. This is a normal seasonal cycle that starts dissolving the break off vortexes into the polar jet below. One interesting feature is that wind speeds are still quite high (120 to 140 km/h) in places which is most likely caused by the planetary waves propagating from the below troposphere.
Hard to pinpoint where (Maybe SE OZ to the Tasman) but IMO a large upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex is going to cut off into the mid latitudes. This is potentially what EC has been picking up on around December 16th to 24th in the Tasman. With the SST’s continuing to rise with this strong ridge moving in this weekend, warmer seas, a significant upper cold pool and moisture leaking down from the tropics is an explosive mix. Back to the popcorn
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 11:35
by TonyT
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 06/12/2018 10:48
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 64,-63.881
Low stratospheric polar vortex is breaking up as solar radiation increases. This is a normal seasonal cycle that starts dissolving the break off vortexes into the polar jet below. One interesting feature is that wind speeds are still quite high (120 to 140 km/h) in places which is most likely caused by the planetary waves propagating from the below troposphere.
Hard to pinpoint where (Maybe SE OZ to the Tasman) but IMO a large upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex is going to cut off into the mid latitudes. This is potentially what EC has been picking up on around December 16th to 24th in the Tasman. With the SST’s continuing to rise with this strong ridge moving in this weekend, warmer seas, a significant upper cold pool and moisture leaking down from the tropics is an explosive mix. Back to the popcorn
I agree, but I think the timing will be a little later (impacts on NZ), around the end of the month.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 20:25
by RODALCO
Very nice structure, seen from Taharoto Rd Takapuna looking North. No activity on Blitz.
IMG_3417.JPG
Time 20:00 hours.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Thu 06/12/2018 20:42
by David
Took a couple of pics on my evening walk. Some nice Cumulus around. First is looking east towards Beachlands area at 7:30pm, second is looking north at 8pm.
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Fri 07/12/2018 08:17
by TonyT
Wow!
If this comes off then we are sure in for an interesting summer. Get the umbrellas ready and the storm chasing vehicles fuelled up. And popcorn, must have popcorn handy.
[This is the latest ECMWF prediction of 500mb height anomalies for the December to February period. The intense blue colour over NZ shows significantly lower than normal predicted heights (equivalent to lower surface pressure and/or cold). It also suggests easterly anomalies, with higher than usual heights/pressure in the southern Pacific.]
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Fri 07/12/2018 08:28
by spwill
I like interesting weather but lets hope it is settled over the Xmas /New year 10 day period.
Eastern parts of Auckland should get quite warm this weekend, mid twenties for the likes of Orewa
Re: General December Weather
Posted: Fri 07/12/2018 08:58
by jamie
That’s interesting Tony, and is that a big shift from what you were seeing a month ago?
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Re: General December Weather
Posted: Fri 07/12/2018 09:41
by TonyT
jamie wrote: ↑Fri 07/12/2018 08:58
That’s interesting Tony, and is that a big shift from what you were seeing a month ago?
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Its a shift but if you've been following my thoughts on this summer then its really just a step further in the same direction I was already suggesting. If it comes off it would be a big shift for those expecting a classic EN summer.