NZ Weather Forum

Running in some good numbers inland on Sunday/Monday for Otago Canterbury Marlborough, Monday is the stronger of the two with an incoming system and strengthening northerly flow.
This will push the instability slightly further east along the inland plain fringes Monday evening, as its inland heating and mild upper air it will only be small hail but high rainfall rates.
Mid week looks good for canterbury and christchurch for a classic thunder/hail set up, upper air is much colder around -28c on the 500mb so heres hoping.
Tuesday afternoon/evening could see an isolated cell or two skirt up the coast to banks penninsula as well.
So interesting times weve had one proper storm chase so far, and im hoping for many more to come.
As John would say for a Fruitful thunderstorm season

That would be great for midweek. A few sunnier days over the weekend then some exciting weather after the cloudy dross of mid to late November!

Inland Canterbury looks in the firing line for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon.. one to watch at least.

That rain band we were expecting seemed to almost completely disintegrate... just 0.2mm here overnight.

David wrote: ↑Sat 01/12/2018 06:50 That rain band we were expecting seemed to almost completely disintegrate... just 0.2mm here overnight.

Yes, just 2mm here. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but I think they are more likely in the west.
Bay of Plenty could see isolated thunderstorms overnight.

Southland seems to have hit the thunderstorm jackpot with afternoon storms progged to continue through to Monday. But thunderstorms look fairly well distributed across the country tomorrow from southern Waikato southward as per GFS.

Not expecting much here now, tomorrow looking mainly fine for Auckland city. Will keep an eye on Waikato tomorrow for possible afternoon thunder.

Some thunder activity western Northland last hr.

Thunderstorms in Southland again. This is the storm which is subject to the current thunderstorm warning

Bit late in starting, but I see quite a few have shot up since the above photo was taken.
Absolutely terrible with boring flat cloud, here all day and hazy. It did clear early afternoon with the temperature shooting up but then boring grey skies again with a light SE.enveloped the sky.
The question now is: "Will it Drzzle tonight?"

Just finished coming back to Invercargill from Dunedin, very dark to the west of Gore.

Pulsy Thundershowers across quite allot of the North Island tomorrow, same process as usual, no cap so showers will likely develop early from 10-11AM onwards, Prevailing NE with a NNE steer, decent amount of CAPE due to high SFC moisture feed and relatively cool upper level temps.

I notice the Kaimai/Coromadal ranges have had upto 150mm last 24hrs. Persistent moist NE.

After yesterdays dull weather in Auckland its good to be back in the sunshine today with 21C already.

Yea pretty messy today. Showers already developing everywhere.


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I don't remember a period where MetService last issued so many Severe Thunderstorm Watches... 2 more today! To go with the previous 4 days(?)

Who's gonna be chasing today?

Thunder081 wrote: ↑Sun 02/12/2018 11:16 Who's gonna be chasing today?

I'm considering it down here...

The line north of Hamilton on the radar might be something to watch.

Rather humid conditions in Auckland today with a dp of 18C, 23C, partly cloudy, a cooling NE breeze.

Another dull day down here but nevermind, our day will come

spwill wrote:The line north of Hamilton on the radar might be something to watch.

That line I just chased and followed it back to my house. Nothing great yet on it. Just the odd rumble. Couldn’t find hail in its core.


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I will chase in Southland if anything substantive develops .Currently fine with the odd bit of TCu on the inland ranges

Lots of thunder this arvo and 13mm so far. This line has fed over us twice now. Might get a third pulse yet.


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This is on the eastern side of northern Tararuas

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Today the instability spreads across much of the inland south island, although more in the high country for canterbury.
Tomorrow could be interesting as we have a moderate northerly flow to kick cell development eastwards in a very unfashion like north to south movement.
Expect storms along the eastern foothills and inland plains, Darfeild Ashburton Timaru might clip an evening cell.
LIs -5c and 1400 cape is more like what you would see in northern australia, typical inland heating does tend to push the numbers up though.
Well worth a late afternoon chase Mt Peel area I reackon.
Tuesday still looking unstable with brief thunder and hail across the plains and city, wednesday looks to be a lunchtime thunder/hail set up on the change line.

Exciting times

Very photogenic cell rolled down the Hutt Valley. Some impressive photos on social media. This from @jordantcarter on Twitter is a beauty.

Me and Rogue are on the chase in the Manawatu

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