UK Weather - Winter 2018/19

[Simon Culling]

It turned quite a bit colder yesterday (Weds 16th Jan) behind a south easterly moving cold front that brought the first general rain to much of England + Wales for about 23 days and has introduced an arctic airmass to all of the UK. Snow showers have followed the rain into Scotland and parts of eastern England giving a covering to a few places. Here in Hythe, it is rather chilly today (Thurs 17th) at 4*C late morning but at least it is dry and the sun is shining.

We have now moved into a colder spell of weather where we are generally going to be on the cold side of the jet stream, but the day to day synoptics look very complicated. There will be a series of south east moving lows (sliders, as they are often referred to) over the next few days and predicting where and if any snow will fall will be difficult. Next week, many of the model runs are now suggesting an easterly flow as the last of these lows sinks south of the UK with a build of pressure to the north. It will get much colder if this happens.

The CET for January was 5.7*C (+2.2*C) up to the 16th and this will fall away now. The EWR was 2mm up to the 14th and this will rise, albeit probably slowly. Current model runs still suggest a dry January.

[Simon Culling]

With a generally NW flow now established over our part of the world, it has been on the cold side but still mostly cloudy here in Hythe. We have had further showery rain in central and western parts with some snow in the north (and not just on the hills), and quite sharp frosts in more eastern parts. The lowest temperature of the winter (so far) was recorded at Braemar with -10.8*C on Friday (18th Jan) and the lowest for England was recorded this morning (Sunday 20th) with -7.2*C at Santon Downham (Norfolk), but here in Hythe we have not had a hint of frost because it has remained cloudy - at least this saves on the heating bills!!

The easterly flow has disappeared from the model output and we are now looking at a couple of reloads of the NW air this week which will have originated in eastern Canada - but been warmed considerably as it crosses the Atlantic. A more active front moving SE across the UK Mon/Tues will give some snow, but these situations are very difficult to predict as they will always be marginal with effectively cold air on both sides of the front and only a short draw of warmer surface air ahead of it. The rest of the week looks cold and showery with most of the wintery showers in the west. At least we might see more sunshine than recent weeks.

[Simon Culling]

The cold front overnight Mon/Tues produced a little snow on its back edge, but this was confined to the high ground in the north - this shows just how marginal these cases can be. Tuesday (22nd Jan) was a cold and blustery day with plenty of wintry showers, and a small feature ran eastwards across southern parts giving a period of wet snow to many places and a surprise covering to many, even in the London area. Over the higher ground to the north of London (the Chiltern hills) a decent covering was recorded with a 9cm depth reported at High Wycombe. The usual travel chaos unsued.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46967689

Here in Hythe we only managed a few blobs of sleet late in the afternoon, but we had a frost overnight into Wednesday with those lovely swirly patterns of frost on the car - they looked like ferns.

[Simon Culling]

After a couple of sharp frosts on Weds + Thurs nights the weather has temporarily turned a lot milder with the temperature reaching 13.9*C at both Swanage + Cardiff Bute Park yesterday (Fri 25th Jan) as a transient warm sector crossed the country. Today, Saturday 26th, a deepening low (currently 985mb) just to the NW of Eire, is moving slowly E/SE and will be just into the North Sea by midday Sunday (at around 975mb) and this will drag down a strong northerly wind behind it to return the UK to the colder regime on the north side of the jet stream. Most of any snow will be on the hills, but it will certainly feel a lot colder in the wind.

Next week is looking very complicated synoptically as a series of lows move around the UK. The weather will stay on the cold side and there looks to be the chance of much more widespread snow on both Tuesday and Thursday, but the four main models cannot agree on any detail. A lot could change very quickly as the snow events look marginal for sea level but a degree or two either way on the temperature can make a huge difference. Quite a challenge for the forecasters this week.

The CET for January was 4.8*C (+1.1*C) up to the 25th and the EWR was just 25mm up to the 24th, which is 28% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Sunday and Monday were predominantly sunny over the UK but on the chilly side in the W/NW breeze, but today (Tues 29th Jan) has been a cloudy day with a band of rain, sleet and snow moving east across the country. No snow here in Hythe (we did manage a little sleet!), but inland areas of southern England have seen a cm or two this evening. As this all clears away overnight, it will freeze hard as quite a sharp frost is in prospect and driving will be fun in the morning.

There has been a subtle shift south in the expectations for the band of precipitation arriving on Thursday after two frosty nights giving a resident cold airmass over the UK. Expectations now appear to be a little further south and this gives me in Hythe a slim chance of some settling snow Thursday evening before the milder air temporarily arrives, but this is another tricky marginal case, so the forecast may change. If I still lived in Milton Keynes I would be expecting up to 10cm from this system.

I went for a walk in the New Forest on Sunday and it was quite pleasant in the shelter of the trees, but it was a bit nippy in the breeze. Attached are a couple of photos:

[Simon Culling]

Last night (Weds 30th into Thurs 31st Jan) was a cold one over the entire UK with the lowest temperatures of the winter (so far) being recorded in all four countries of the Union:

Scotland, -14.4°C was recorded at Braemar
N Ireland, -8.5°C was recorded at Magilligan
Wales, -9.3°C was recorded at Sennybridge
England, -10.7°C was recorded at RAF Topcliffe

The Braemar temperature is the lowest in the UK since -15.6°C was recorded at Holbeach (Lincolnshire) on 11th February 2012.

The figures in the BBC report are a bit out of date as some of these minimums did not occur until after 09:00:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47027762

The band of rain/snow is now spreading into SW England and will turn increasingly to snow as it moves across southern England + Wales and warnings have been upgraded to 10-15cm on higher ground. I am not expecting too much here in Hythe on the coast as we will get a feed off the English Channel which will lift the temperature initially. This morning, the temperature fell to -5°C with a very pretty frost, but it has already risen to 4°C by 11:30 and the breeze is picking up.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

There was a mention of heavy snow in various parts of the UK this evening on the TV One news.
Motorways jammed and other cold weather related features to the wintry conditions there.

[Simon Culling]

The band of rain/snow I referred to in my last post spread slowly east and north over most of southern England on Thursday afternoon and evening giving a general covering away from the south coast and an abrupt and heavy fall on its back edge over the far west - Cornwall, and particularly the higher ground around Bodmin Moor. The snow band persisted in the same place (central southern England + parts of the West Country) overnight into Friday and intensified in what we used to call Wessex (Bristol/Glos/Wilts/Hants) and gave persistent snow for much of the day here with up to 25cm in places. The intensity of the snow caught people out, as despite the temperature being around 0°C, it settled very quickly and caused quite a lot of traffic issues. A separate heavier area of snow caused similar problems in SE England on Friday evening. A couple of news stories give a flavour of the event, which was very altitude sensitive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47094341

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47071846

Here in Hythe, very close to the south coast, we had a sprinkling of snow on Thursday evening but only sleet and wet snow on Friday and the landscape remained green.

[Simon Culling]

The enhanced snow on Friday 1st February was caused by a small mid/upper level low that provided enough ascent to keep the precipitation going. As mentioned above, the greatest snow depths were in the Wessex area and the highest reliable figure I have seen is 27cm at a site just to the south of the city of Bath (now in the county of Somerset).

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 3319671808

Further explanation and images in the thread on the UKww weather forum:

EDIT: The link to a UK forum I originally placed in this post was unfortunately to a 'protected' thread that is not generally available to view. The nub of the argument centred around this blog entry and whether the bands of snow could be attributed to CSI or not - they did not all agree!

https://stratusdeck.co.uk/blog/conditio ... sting-snow

[Simon Culling]

The cold spell ended yesterday as much milder air (and more frontal systems have spread into the UK off the Atlantic, but not before the lowest temperatures of the winter so far were recorded in most of the UK countries in the last few days:

Scotland, -15.4°C at Braemar (on 1st Feb}
England, -11.7°C at Chillingham Barns (Northumberland, on 3rd Feb)
Wales, -9.6°C at St Harmon (Powys, on 31st Jan)

We even broke -10°C in southern England on the morning of 3rd February when -10.3°C was recorded at RAF Benson and -9.9°C at RAF Odiham over a decent snow cover.

The cold weather has receded way back into Europe and the UK will be under the influence of Atlantic systems this week and into next with a couple of quite potent storms expected this weekend. One of these systems will likely become Storm Erik.

The final CET for January was 4.0°C (+0.1°C) and the final EWR was 47mm which is just 51% of the monthly average. The latter figure does not show how dry some areas were - especially NE England and parts of southern and eastern England. SE Scotland was also very dry:

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1092484064374939649

[Simon Culling]

it has been much milder in the last few days with plenty of wind and rain. I drove back from Tiverton (in Devon) to Hythe (in Hampshire) yesterday and the last 30 miles (around 4pm) was through constant heavy driving rain with massive puddles on the roads and clouds of spray from passing traffic. It was not much fun. The main depression was indeed christened Erik and has given two windy days for the UK + Eire but it should die down this evening. The snow has just about gone now but I did see a few patches by the side of the road yesterday on the high hills of Wiltshire (about 220-250m amsl) on the A303 trunk road.

Another low is likely to curve west across England tomorrow (Sunday) giving more rain and wind to more southern parts and we could see some snow on its northern edge if it develops as it crosses the UK and draws in more cold air from the north. As it moves away, we will see another build of pressure from the SW with a high taking up residence over the Channel and northern France that may well persist for the rest of next week. If the high centre is a little further east than expected we could get a couple of springlike days by the end of the week.

The CET for February was 3.8°C (-0.6°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 29mm up to the 7th, which is 44% of the monthly average of 65mm.

[Simon Culling]

Sunday started showery here in Hythe but brightened up after lunch and we had a decent amount of sunshine in the afternoon and a max of 8°C. The weather will now settle down as pressure builds from the south and the high centre moves into Europe and persists for most of the coming week. Towards the end of the week it will draw a south westerly feed across the UK and it could become spring like by Thurs/Fri with the mercury reaching at least 15°C in favoured spots.

The infrared satellite picture in the attached tweet gives the view at 0600GMT this morning (Monday 11th Feb) and I have attached the corresponding synoptic map and the two together give a good analysis of the current weather picture and the prospects for the next few days.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1 ... 7926132736

[Simon Culling]

The high pressure has taken up residence over central Europe and we have had a couple of mild sunny days here in the UK - although as fronts flirt with the far NW, it has been cloudier in Scotland. A low level subsidence inversion is giving some areas more favourable temperatures, and the S/SE winds means that the fohn effect is being felt most noticeably out west - western Wales and Scotland. Thursday (14th Feb) was the warmest Valentines Day since 1998 (when 19°C was recorded at a few sites) with a high of 16.1°C at Bala in north Wales and this was closely followed by 15.9°C at Gogerddan on the west Wales coast.

Here in Hythe it has been sunny and mild for the last few days, but with the wind (only light) off the still cold English Channel (SST's approx. 9-11°C), maximum temperatures have been restricted to 10/11°C. This morning (Fri 15th) started foggy and cold (1°C), but this has now (11am) lifted and the sun is beaming down. This is good weather for the time of the year and should continue into the weekend.

The attached tweet gives a good explanation of the current inversion over much of the UK:

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 8467606528

[Simon Culling]

Friday (15th February) was even milder with most of the UK bathed in spring sunshine. The first daffodil flowers were out a couple of weeks ago, and looked lovely in the sunshine. Highest temperatures were in spots favoured by local fohn conditions (shelter from the S/SE breeze), but it was generally 'warm' in most places. The highest maximums were:

17.5°C at Rhyl (on the north Wales coast)
17.1°C at Prestatyn (also on the north Wales coast)
16.8°C at Bala
16.1°C at RAF Chivenor (north Cornwall coast)
16.0°C at Gogerddan
15.9°C at Trawscoed (west Wales)

It has been a little cooler this weekend, but only a little, and the mild theme looks to continue. The models are hinting at 850mb temperatures approaching 15°C Thurs/Fri this coming week. If this happens, we could see a temperature on the ground near 20°C!!!

The CET for February was 5.3°C (+1.5°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 46mm up to the 15th, which is a surprising 70% of the monthly average. Little, if any, rain in the 7-day forecast.

[Orion]

^ I'd been seeing comments on a couple of non-weather-related forums that it had been "warm" in parts of the UK - interesting to see the actual temps.

[Simon Culling]

Indeed Orion, it has been very mild here in the UK. On Sunday (17th Feb), the mercury reached 16°C in and around the London area in the sunshine, but it has cooled a little since then as a weak front has moved east across the country during Monday. That said, temperatures are still above average.

A very deep low (approx. 935mb) is expected to develop in mid-Atlantic in the next day or so and as it moves north towards Greenland and secondary lows develop further to its SE and also curve north to the west of the UK, very warm air will be dragged northwards from south of the Azores, and this will give the UK another very mild spell later this week (from Thursday to Saturday). Some forecasts suggest (if we get plenty of sunshine) that the UK February temperature record could be challenged on Friday. The current record is the 19.7°C recorded at Greenwich Observatory on 13th February 1998.

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday and Thursday this week have been very warm for the time of year in most parts of the UK with blue skies and sunshine for many. Some more western and southern coastal areas have been plagued by low cloud and fog so have not joined in the warmth, but overall it has been exceptionally warm. The record maximum for Scotland for the month of February was broken on Thursday (21st Feb) when Aboyne (Aberdeenshire) recorded a high of 18.3°C which beat the old record of 17.9°C measured at nearby Aberdeen way back in 1897.

The warm weather has continued today (Fri 22nd) with 18°C again being reached - this time in west Wales. However, here in Hythe on the south coast, it has remained misty/foggy and only 8°C. Can't win them all.

The CET for February was 6.2°C (+2.6°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 49mm up to the 20th, which is 75% of the monthly average. It looks like remaining very mild (and dry) for the rest of the month.

[Simon Culling]

The exceptionally mild weather has continued as high pressure persists nearby over western Europe and the lows remain towards the centre of the Atlantic - maintaining the southerly flow over the UK. Following the new Scottish record for February on Thursday, we have today seen a new record for Wales and we are getting close to the UK record for the month. The highs for the last few days were:

Friday 22nd Feb - 18.1°C at Gogerddan (west Wales)
Saturday 23rd Feb - 17.8°C at Kew Gardens
Sunday 24th Feb - 19.1°C at Gogerdden (again!)

Much of the UK enjoyed a sunny weekend, although there was a little rain in Scotland on Saturday. Here in Hythe it was a beautiful couple of days with gin clear skies but we have been cooler with the wind coming off the English Channel - although we did reach 15°C on Sunday. The warm and settled weather should continue until midweek, and despite some frost at night, the days will continue to be very mild and we should see 18°C or so somewhere on both Monday + Tuesday. Later in the week it will gradually turn cooler and more unsettled as the high retreats further into Europe.

[Simon Culling]

Repeating my last post - this exceptional spell of weather has continued with the UK February record temperature being broken on both Monday + Tuesday this week. On Monday, 20.6°C was recorded at Trawscoed in west Wales, only for this to be beaten again today with 21.2°C at Kew Gardens in London. These two smashed the old record of 19.7°C which was recorded at Greenwich Observatory on 13/2/1998.

We should have another fine day on Wednesday, but then it will begin to become more unsettled and cooler.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 9617797122

[Simon Culling]

The exceptionally mild weather continued into Wednesday with the days high being 19.2°C at London Heathrow Airport. Much of the UK was sunny and warm again, but overnight into Thursday (28th Feb) the wind flow has shifted to the W/SW and we are now looking to the Atlantic for our weather. We actually saw some showery rain today in Hythe, although with a maximum of 13°C, it was still 4°C above average - everyone was complaining how cold it now felt!!

The weather looks quite disturbed going forward with a succession of low pressure systems crossing the country over the coming weekend and into next week. The temperature will continue to fall slowly to near average by early next week, but nothing really cold has appeared in the model output so far.

[Simon Culling]

February turned out to be one of the warmest in the CET series, which dates back to 1659. The final CET for the month was 6.7°C to give an anomaly of +3.0°C. This makes it the 15th equal warmest in the series, and if it were not for the cold first 10 days, it would likely have been the warmest. The warmest February in the CET series is 1779 which had a mean of 7.9°C.

The final EWR for February was 55mm which is 84% of the monthly average. The bulk of this rain (and snow) fell in the first 10 days.

A few more statistics can be found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... statistics

[Simon Culling]

The Met Office have produced a summary report on the exceptional warm spell towards the end of February when the all-time daily maximum record was exceeded by 1.5°C. The most interesting statistic in the report is that 10 stations with 100+ years of records broke their February high and over 200 stations also set February records - although some have relatively short data records.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... mspell.pdf