Widespread T-Storms 11-16 Dec

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 13/12/2018 18:28

They took their time. This storm was reaching warning criteria an hour ago.

I’m back home now. Thinking back those strong inflow winds I noticed should have told me this storm was exploding. Still can’t believe how many cg it threw out. I counted 3 positive strikes that landed miles from the storm. Well over 20 other cg strikes.

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GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Thu 13/12/2018 18:33

Lots of surface flooding in the Kelvin Grove area of Palmerston North, from severe warned thunderstorms around 5pm. Saw the warning at work, when I was just leaving, but 40 mins later it had been removed from MetService site.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Thu 13/12/2018 18:59

Have emailed Blizortung in recent weeks .They say they have had trouble with their servers especially their app

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Thu 13/12/2018 19:00

Had an adjacent thunderstorm north of Thornbury at 1800 . At least one strike on their app

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 13/12/2018 19:11

......and all we get around here is bloody 'clagg"

but mind you there were some bright spots this afternoon.
Get rid of the high pressure under us, allowing the low to weakon or dissipate, so we can get rid of this 'Stale" weather, that has penetrated this area all week

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 13/12/2018 19:38

Auckland missing the action today but we may catch an elevated storm overnight Friday if not an afternoon convergence storm tomorrow.

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Thu 13/12/2018 20:02

Chased in the Manawatu today and it was good, footage wise... meh. Saw 3 CGs and heard lots of thunder. There's a lot I need to learn but there's one thing that is SO annoying and others have this issue is the public radar. You have to zoom in on it and take a couple of minutes to work out where the storm is. It would be so useful if the radar was overlayed onto Google maps and I have previously tried to do this but it was too hard (I'm a beginner in programming and image processing). I might make a thread about this cause if that could be done it would be very useful.

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 13/12/2018 20:17

Thunder081 wrote: ↑Thu 13/12/2018 20:02 Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk

Good idea.

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 13/12/2018 20:51

NZstorm wrote: ↑Thu 13/12/2018 19:38 Auckland missing the action today but we may catch an elevated storm overnight Friday if not an afternoon convergence storm tomorrow.

Hopefully so, today is the 7th day without rain, so could definitely do with some

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Thu 13/12/2018 20:54

An article on Stuff regarding the surface flooding in Palmy, this afternoon:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standa ... ston-north

The article talks about 9.7mm of raining falling at the airport, which is a couple of kilometres away from Kelvin Grove. However, I drove through Kelvin Grove just after 5:45pm and it was like there was a localised area where the rain must have been torrential. I had to drive through 3 separate areas of flooding in the Kelvin Grove area that were within about a kilometre of each other.

I found the following personal weather station, in Kelvin Grove, which must have been in the path of the intense rain, as it shows 54.6mm falling in just over an hour. The weather station is a Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus (Wireless), which I would think would be reasonably accurate:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... IPALMERS35

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 13/12/2018 21:35

A very late convergence line has/is developing to my east. Almost a repeat of this evenings storm.

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jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 13/12/2018 21:50

And there it is....thunder. Nice to hear and watch from bed (bed looks of east facing window).

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spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 14/12/2018 06:09

They were nice cloud tops to the south of here late yesterday.
I plan to get out for a chase today after 2pm, possibly head down to North Waikato.
GFS is putting out some good instability numbers over Waikato this afternoon/evening.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 14/12/2018 06:43

Phone pic of distant thunderstorm over Waikato late yesterday afternoon. Taken from Glendowie, east Auckland where I was working.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/12/2018 07:50

Hopefully today is as good as yesterday. Reports of rainfall from under that cell yesterday are all 50+mm in under an hour. Doesn’t surprise me one bit.

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jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/12/2018 08:33

Very warm sunny morning here. Already have cu towers to my north. Hope it doesn’t go off too early.

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Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 14/12/2018 08:46

Blimey! Chase day today i think, Jamie what you up to mate?

The combination of another warm humid day and generally light winds are expected to allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over many parts of New Zealand today.

In the North Island, there is a high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening about inland areas from Northland to the Tararua ranges and Wairarapa (including Auckland), and also about coast parts of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa (however a few of the thunderstorms may develop before midday). A surrounding low risk covers all remaining North Island areas. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain and hail. Some of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe, producing localised downpours of 25-40m/hr (or more), hail possibly larger than 20mm diameter, and maybe strong wind gusts of 60-80km/hr in a few places.

In the South Island, there is a moderate risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms about inland areas from Marlborough and Nelson down to North and Central Otago, and possibly also the Fiordland mountains. A low risk of thunderstorms covers many other areas except eastern Canterbury, southern Southland and Stewart Island. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain and small hail. A few of the thunderstorms could also be severe about inland parts of Nelson, western Marlborough, Buller, and North Westland with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr.

Severe Thunderstorms Watches have been issued for many parts of the North Island and northern South Island. Severe Thunderstorms can bring intense localised downpours causing surface and/or flash flooding, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous. Large hail can cause damage to crops, orchards, vineyards and glass-houses.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 14/12/2018 08:57

ECMWF which is usually very conservative on CAPE, is pulling out all the punches early this afternoon, havent seen this much CAPE by that model predicted in ages!

Decent SFC Convergence probably will kick in properly post 1 PM, with a clearly marked zones going by the models, this this similar to the same setup as yesterday.

Difference here is that we have upper level temps about 2 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon, that means lapse rates will be stronger (and should in theory have even more electrical activity as a result)

Cross finger things dont get going too early, we want as much DTSH as possible.

Risk of flash floods today as storms will be slow moving and will have a tendancy to dump a heck of allot of rain in a short space in time.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 14/12/2018 09:24

I knew first thing that today was going to be a risk as the low cloud we've had a lot of lately had cleared mostly away. Can't get over how much of NZ is under a moderate or more risk

Rogue · Unread post by **Rogue** » Fri 14/12/2018 09:26

Thanks Tim, where do you access those ECMWF images?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/12/2018 09:30

Tim I’ll be milking as per usual but can start early like I did yesterday or start late.

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Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 14/12/2018 09:36

Rogue wrote: ↑Fri 14/12/2018 09:26 Thanks Tim, where do you access those ECMWF images?

I use: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/layers/

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 14/12/2018 11:32

NE breeze seems to be prevailing over AKL at the moment. Hopefully we can still get some PM convergence

shovelopikis · Unread post by **shovelopikis** » Fri 14/12/2018 11:36

Very loud rumbles every few mins...not much cloud cover still and clouds are not very heavy yet...going to be an interesting afternoon.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/12/2018 13:04

CB tops now visible here. Early start!

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Widespread T-Storms 11-16 Dec

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