NZ Weather Forum

Roll on tomorrow system

I'm not quite sure what the severe convection meteorologists were on about at metservice today. They obviously saw something I didn't because it never looked thundery for today. There risk outlook graph they had today should be applied for tomorrow... if anything I'd say a high risk for the plains tomorrow with a low risk of one or two severe. Large hail a big threat tomorrow

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 21/12/2018 19:18 I'm not quite sure what the severe convection meteorologists were on about at metservice today. They obviously saw something I didn't because it never looked thundery for today. There risk outlook graph they had today should be applied for tomorrow... if anything I'd say a high risk for the plains tomorrow with a low risk of one or two severe. Large hail a big threat tomorrow

Maybe they got today mixed up with tomorrow?
Never looked in the remote sense for thunderstormic activity today here although there were one or 2 lightning stikes in the back country according to the Blitz.
Mostly flat grey cloud and becoming 'claggy' again this afternoon with the rain settling in for a while. I had the radio on the AM band and heard no sferics at all. Maybe it's a situation when nothing happens and then you wake up about 1am in the morning by a loud boom of thunder and you hear a bit of hail go patter patter on the roof?

Todays minimal activity proved one thing that i mentioned this morning that would be the only key player, a slight convergence of winds.
This happened in the high country and foothills because of the topography and opposing winds, on the plains the picture was always NE all day.
Also heat rising and cooling in the valleys.
Yes the activity drifted across from the west with heavy rain aiding a slight upper level movement, but still no surface convergence.

Tomorrow we have all ingrediants including instability numbers southerly vs a good fresh NE, but more importantly the shear which NZstorm talked about a day ago.
Best spot to be will be around mid canterbury, large hail and possibly a tornado.

MS have gone for a moderate TS risk for tomorrow as previously forecasted, so going by today's thunderstorm forecast for Timaru and the Plains, I'm not expecting much, sadly, even though the potential does look good if the, persistent low cloud or 'clagg' clears away around here.

High risk now. As it should be. I'd still have a low risk severe hail though.

Well done to you guys who picked up on the high risk over the last few days, you saw it here first folks.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Sat 22/12/2018 08:28 High risk now. As it should be. I'd still have a low risk severe hail though.

Dont want the hail though Mike

Richard wrote: ↑Sat 22/12/2018 08:41 Well done to you guys who picked up on the high risk over the last few days, you saw it here first folks.

Today has looked the goods for quite a few days now. High preceip type storms with pretty active lightning embedded will make for a tricky chase photography wise. Don't see the large hail threat fortunately or unfortunately if your names Mike

Active sounds good. Yesterdays storm was not overly active, lightning every 30sec to a min apart, could only see its lightning mainly within the cloud so not great viewing but was a good storm for its thunder

Today looks great, hope it comes off.

Starting to look promising SW towards the Lees Valley area

Just starting to see some CU go up inland to the south, and storms firing through north otago south canterbury.
Should be an interesting afternoon for a chase.
Currently 18C NE sea breeze perfect conditions.

Looks like a cell going up around the Hunters Hills area. Lots of fair weather Cu going up here at the moment and it's nice and sunny, no clagg

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 22/12/2018 13:12 Looks like a cell going up around the Hunters Hills area. Lots of fair weather Cu going up here at the moment and it's nice and sunny, no clagg

Can see the tops from here.The Peel Forest area should fire up soon

MetService have added a low risk of severe storms from about Timaru northwards.

Starting to look severe now so might go "Up to the Downs"
Crackling nicely away on the AM band.

Thunder heard here now. Looking very dark towards cave hunter hills area

Been awhile since wev had a set up like this. Clouds going up everywhere. Breezy NE wind.
Thunderstorm playground this afternoon. Heading down to ashburton now to get set up!

Banks Peninsula is covered in cauliflower, clouds inland, storms coming from the south. Merry Christmas!

Metservice just posted a severe thunderstorm watch for the plains, high country and Christchurch.

Things building nicely so far.

Heavy rain and hail here now

Just come back from the Downs. Dark cloud moving north along the 4 Peaks area where i ve heard 4 rumbles of thunder so far. A keen east to SE blowing here now. Hey another rumble as I type

Severe storm to the west, I'm at Rakaia and it looks huge.

Sadly the SE is rolling in low cloud hindering observation of what is happening higher up.
Thunder now being heard to the North to NE instead of where I excpected, the Mt. Peel/ 4 Peaks area.