Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

Should be a interesting couple of days coming up, mainly for us mainlanders Friday, top of the North Island as well Saturday.


Valid to: Midnight Friday 21 Dec 2018

Issued at: 11:16am Thursday 20 Dec 2018

A trough is expected to cross the South Island during Friday afternoon and evening, while a font moves onto the North Island in the evening.

For the South Island, showers are expected with the passage of the trough, and about Central Otago, Dunedin, North Otago, Canterbury south of about Christchurch, the ranges of North Canterbury, Marlborough and eastern Nelson, there is a moderate risk some of the showers could become thundery. These thunderstorms if they occur could mostly bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm and hail. However about eastern parts of Central Otago, Dunedin, North Otago and Canterbury south of about Christchurch, there is also a risk some of these thunderstorms may become SEVERE bring localised heavy rain greater than 25mm per hour and hail greater than 20mm in diameter.

A lower risk of thunderstorms covers much of the remainder of the South Island.

For the North Island, there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening about the ranges of Gisborne, northern Hawkes Bay, Taihape and inland areas of Taranaki and Wanganui. However the low risk of thunderstorms extends to all western areas of the North Island from Waikato to Wellington in the evening.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Richard on Thu 20/12/2018 16:25, edited 3 times in total.
User avatar
Thunder081
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 140 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 20th and 21st Dec

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Thread title needs to say NI as well because boyah! there was a cool looking thunderstorm near Levin at about 12pm. It's always nice when the storms come to you
DSCF8317-r.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 21th, both islands 22st Dec

Unread post by melja »

Today's the 20th tho lol

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

wre1991
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue 20/11/2018 13:27
Location: Waihi
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 22 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 21th, both islands 22st Dec

Unread post by wre1991 »

Waihi just now
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
wre1991
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue 20/11/2018 13:27
Location: Waihi
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 22 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 21th, both islands 22st Dec

Unread post by wre1991 »

Moving away from Waihi looking towards Tauranga
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 21th, both islands 22st Dec

Unread post by Richard »

wre1991 wrote: Thu 20/12/2018 15:18 Waihi just now
That looks really heavy 8-o
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

This evenings update now has increased risk for the east of the North Island
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: Mainly SI storms 21th, both islands 22st Dec

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Richard wrote: Thu 20/12/2018 16:25
wre1991 wrote: Thu 20/12/2018 15:18 Waihi just now
That looks really heavy 8-o
Wasn't too bad. I was packing up a Mobile Dental Unit at Katikati Primary. I do concede I hid under it for a bit about 3pm and did take a couple of photo's and some video. Was very short lived.
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: General December Weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Tomorrow looking like the best set up all season. Will definitely be chasing if things stay the way they look.
Severe hail possibility for me
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

There is an elevated thunderstorm set over the north of the country tomorrow night. Have to see how it looks on the skew-t tomorrow.
Chris W
Posts: 1444
Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
Location: Lyttelton
Has thanked: 947 times
Been thanked: 362 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Chris W »

The moderate risk has been extended and a low risk of severe storms added for today:
Screenshot_20181221-090802_Chrome.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Im not sold on the great risk today, models show a lack of instability numbers over canterbury.
The only trigger is the NE vs southerly later on, no cold upper air a slight bit of shear but thats it.
Tomorrow on the other hand is definatly a high risk with a good chance of severe storms, hail 25+mm diamter and good shear over a wide area will mean plenty of funnels to be seen and maybe a tornado too.
Fresh ENE down to Ashburton up against an incoming southerly, lots of moisture -4c LIs 900 cape shes all go for a chase. \:D/
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

At this stage the MS are not in line with you Jase.
thunderstormOutlookImage.png
Cloud starting to build out to the west from here.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Not sure what MS thinking with the outlook, tomorrow the better day for canterbury
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by melja »

Some good boil ups visible now well to the west.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Razor »

Thick high cloud here in ChCh now, hard to believe there will be any fun today
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

Anything could happen when considering there's a developing rotation over the SI.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Just came back from Temuka after collecting the Xmas ham :yum:
Lots of boring looking SC cloud cover and not looking anything at the least thunderstormic here although looking very dark and with thick cloud westward and now coming onto light rain here.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Calm and now coming onto proper rain from the west.
The 'Clagg' setting in again. [-X
JohnGaul
NZThS
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by melja »

Red appearing on radar in many spots

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

Just had thunder to the NW
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

Starting to see the lightning now as its getting closer
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

Some of the IC lightning has been close to over head with the earthing happening to the north, that's eased and in comes the rain
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by melja »

Heavy rain here, like we need anymore!

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Stormy period 20th, 21st and 22nd Dec

Unread post by Richard »

melja wrote: Fri 21/12/2018 17:44 Heavy rain here, like we need anymore!

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
And lots more to come over the next few hours too.

Today is the second time this spring/summer that storms have developed on days that have been totally uncharacteristic, to have ended the day with a storm after a mainly cloudy day is not normal for around here, even till about 4.00 pm it didn't look like it was going to turn electrical. Now the rain, MS had .2 mm for here on there rainfall accumulation chart, but we may end up around 20mm the way its pouring down.
Locked