NZ Weather Forum

The 34mm over night left water standing in paddocks. Fair to say ground is close to saturation. Something we haven’t had since first week September.


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55mm from 9.30pm to 6am. Got through that ok, now worried about the next lot, although it's not looking too bad for here at this stage. I expect someone is really going to cop it.

A PWS near Waihi is reading 160mm since midnight, with 48mm falling in 30 minutes early this morning

Not a happy xmas for these poor folk https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12181907

Very wet, lots of rain during the night and this morning, it looks that there is more rain to come. Dry at the moment out West in Titirangi.

Based off current wind obs and radar intensity, GFS 18Z is the only model pinpointing the surface trough at midday compared to the 12z runs. Whangarei currently showing an easterly and Cape Reinga a northerly with obs in between north easterlies. GFS has the intense convergence later this afternoon more west nearer to Auckland than other models. Will be interesting to watch the surface observations in the next few hours.

Friends in Kaitaia are getting pummeled. Major water logging up there

There does seem to have been substantially less than expected for most parts of Northland & Auckland. I see Kerikeri and Whangarei only have around 30mm for the event so far.

Been a very gentle light rain here all day.

We are just under 50mm since midnight, plus 25mm from last night. We had two significant deluges about 1:30am and 4am with rainfall rates of 44mm/hr and 53mm/hr. I know if I go out and tie the trampoline down it will stop any further wind and rain from occurring.

A slow soaking 28mm so far here, misses to the east and west. Front in the Tasman now starting the atmospheric squeeze towards the trough and warm front across the central NI which will start heading towards the SI. GFS has nailed the synoptics compared to the others so far today but rainfall tonight is now the best question...radar starting to close in around Northland and the Gulf, plenty of radar watching to come

Yes looks like some heavier stuff moving down this evening, Whangarei now showing 12mm in the last hour.

We are now at 79mm since midnight, 105mm for the event. Solid rain at 30mm/hr. The local river will be in a good flood soon with that rate

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Would love one of CT’s detailed analysis right now. Satellite image is impressive and I’m keen to know if it will play out tonight as expected.


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Just had another 22mm in no time, now clocked 50mm and moving up. Rain rate currently between 15 to 30 mm/h. It's all squeezing together nicely. Large volumes of mid level of moisture heading towards the Bay of Plenty region, that needs to be closely watched on radar as it approaches. Good convection now occurring with the wrap around low in the Tasman and TT's are over 50 out there. Might be some beefy cells coming off that low tomorrow. Here is my 2 cents worth Jamie

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 24/12/2018 22:37 Just had another 22mm in no time, now clocked 50mm and moving up. Rain rate currently between 15 to 30 mm/h. It's all squeezing together nicely. Large volumes of mid level of moisture heading towards the Bay of Plenty region, that needs to be closely watched on radar as it approaches. Good convection now occurring with the wrap around low in the Tasman and TT's are over 50 out there. Might be some beefy cells coming off that low tomorrow. Here is my 2 cents worth Jamie

Oh joy, hopefully will stay below 30mm/hr as ground is saturated and that'll be all it needs for us to be in trouble. That'll be quite an unwanted Xmas pressy. Darn infill housing etc has turned this place into a new floodplain. 88 mm so far in the last 25 odd hours.

Collected an extra 34mm here since 9pm. Event total is now 87mm, and just ticked over 200mm for the month

After quite a few near misses, last nights intense band got things ticking along to 66mm here.

37mm yesterday and 24mm since midnight. 179mm month to date so far, wettest Dec for some time i would think.

134mm for the event so far in Swanson, a local river flooded to 5.5m which is just 50cm off its record.

Edit - breakdown
Night of 23rd - 25.7mm
24th - 92.2mm
25th - 4.6mm so far.

Dark out to the west with the rainbands just off the west coast - hopefully it will stay dry long enough to kick the kids outside

Merry Christmas all forum people. The centre of the low looks impressive on the radar. Probably lucky it's out to sea as would not like to be stuck under that nearly stationary rain band NE of its centre. The station I admin is up to 259mm for Dec now. This is on flat ground at ~60m ASL, well inland. It was bull's eye under some thunderstorms earlier in the month.

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cbm wrote:Merry Christmas all forum people. The centre of the low looks impressive on the radar. Probably lucky it's out to sea as would not like to be stuck under that nearly stationary rain band NE of its centre. The station I admin is up to 259mm for Dec now. This is on flat ground at ~60m ASL, well inland. It was bull's eye under some thunderstorms earlier in the month.

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Yea sure has been a wet one. 267mm here.


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I believe Feb 1958 of the famous 1958 Waikato floods is still the wettest month of all observations at Ruakura unless July 1998 beat it. 325mm. So are in getting in that ballpark now.
http://www.localweather.net.nz/smf/1955 ... 1958/8199/

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Decent rain over a wide area in the last 24 hours.

I just tracked the low over the last 6 hours. Has only moved 68km NNE from 6am to midday. Centred 160km SW of Auckland at around 992 hPa. 1002 hPa and falling here which is lower than models had projected at this time. With the lower pressure, the northern side is going to get quite breezy this afternoon around Northland. Trough is now on the west coast of Auckland, showers are going to have quite a punch on the east side of it.

Well Christmas Day itself has certainly turned out better than it looked several days ago
Rain has held off longer than I thought, looks like it may be back within the hour...

Just briefly clocked rainfall rate of 160 mm/h under a downpour. Showers have a bit in them