General January Weather

[Cyclone Tracy]

NIWA today publicly acknowledged that NZ waters are now are going into a marine heatwave phase and are at the same levels as this time last year, especially to the north and east of the NI. https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 0225342464

IMO, like last year, this will provide significantly more than normal energy for deepening mid latitude cyclones as we approach the equinox. This could go a little extreme once the weather pattern changes in the next few weeks

[TonyT]

NIWA today publicly acknowledged that NZ waters are now are going into a marine heatwave phase and are at the same levels as this time last year, especially to the north and east of the NI. https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 0225342464

IMO, like last year, this will provide significantly more than normal energy for deepening mid latitude cyclones as we approach the equinox. This could go a little extreme once the weather pattern changes in the next few weeks

If the MJO moves into the low pressure and troughing favourable phases (7 & 8 ) then watch out. Kaboom! No sign of 7 & 8 at the moment, but a move into phase 6 in about 2 weeks time is predicted by EC, so first or second week in February could be the time for a party.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

.... or second week in February could be the time for a party.

In time for my 66th

[NZstorm]

Looks like persistent SW winds for Auckland next 7 days, El Nino weather.

[spwill]

The pattern is particularly good for eastern Northland , Kerikeri doing very well for holiday weather.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Need I say, another day of clag with some drizzle, however good for collecting firewood for wintertime use.

[Richard]

It has been a crap summer so far yet sea temperatures are very warm, maybe that's why the high number of clagged in days here in the east SI.

[RWood]

NIWA today publicly acknowledged that NZ waters are now are going into a marine heatwave phase and are at the same levels as this time last year, especially to the north and east of the NI. https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 0225342464

IMO, like last year, this will provide significantly more than normal energy for deepening mid latitude cyclones as we approach the equinox. This could go a little extreme once the weather pattern changes in the next few weeks

If the MJO moves into the low pressure and troughing favourable phases (7 & 8 ) then watch out. Kaboom! No sign of 7 & 8 at the moment, but a move into phase 6 in about 2 weeks time is predicted by EC, so first or second week in February could be the time for a party.

I hope it happens either earlier or later than then - on holiday northern SI in the middle third of the month.

[NZstorm]

Current jet stream pattern. A continous run of bad weather onto the south of NZ.

[spwill]

The west /southwest pattern helps generate a strong ridge over northern NZ this time of year so a good January here.
Locally the southwest breeze keeps the sea breeze convergence out.

[cbm]

Today is certainly the pick of the last 6 days weather here in Western Northland.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[Dean.]

31 here in Ashburton getting warm

[Chris W]

Peaked at 32C here, and the wind is cranking.

I see Milford Sound has had 211mm so far today and is on course for 240m, wow!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

31 here in Ashburton getting warm

Yes we were in Ashburton today, well at Chertsey, as I was checking out some weather books at the Book Barn there. Sure was hot there in the sun.
Had to stop in Tinwald on the way home to get an ice-cream

[Orion]

^

Few spots of rain have started hitting west-facing windows here at present.

[Richard]

That was one of the worse nights of gales for many years, huge brief gusts interspersed with quite calm patches.

[Chris Raine]

Likewise in Southland .You could hear the gusts coming , hitting the side of the house , thumping noises as pieces of garden furniture went for a walk .Not a lot of rain with the front of yesterday 4.5mm and the showers few and far between now in the westerlies

[NZstorm]

That front just passing through here now with showers.

El Nino is forecast to run through to winter so we could see a lot of changeable weather next few months.

[Richard]

That was one of the worse nights of gales for many years, huge brief gusts interspersed with quite calm patches.

I see on the CWS out in the paddock the peak gust was 19m/s = 68kmph at 2m.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Had a few strong westerly gusts overnight but nothing too strong as would you got up Medbury way.
Beautiful fine day down here with lots of lovely lenticular forms, especially late this morning, but sadly when you go an get yout camera they change shape. Some nice 'Flying Saucers' over South Canterbury today.

[Thunder081]

Nice sunset in Levin just now

DSCF8425-r.jpg

[David]

Could be quite a warm end to the month. Some fairly warm 850mb temperatures showing up on GFS.

[spwill]

Camping in the Coromandel this weekend , hopefully the easterly convergence later in the week will get pushed out quickly.

[Chris W]

Could be quite a warm end to the month. Some fairly warm 850mb temperatures showing up on GFS.

Yes, solid warmth with persistent northwesterlies after this week’s cold front. Looking like more tropical activity to the north, but not sure how that will affect things as the subtropical ridge has held strong over NZ lately.

[spwill]

The subtropical easterlies have been shut out this January, Cape Reinga showing only 4mm for the month so far, Kerikeri 5.2mm, Whangarei 8.8mm, not much rain modelled for the rest of January.