Extreme Heat to End January and Feb

[03Stormchaser]

Thought it might be best to have a separate thread for the upcoming possible heat wave from Sunday 27th January. I throw any credibility I have out there and say we may top 40C

[NZstorm]

Met Service are forecasting 35C for Blenheim on Monday. I agree temperatures could end up higher than that next week in some spots.

[Bradley]

Thought it might be best to have a separate thread for the upcoming possible heat wave from Sunday 27th January. I throw any credibility I have out there and say we may top 40C

EC going for top maximums of 28C for Christchurch next week lol

[03Stormchaser]

Thought it might be best to have a separate thread for the upcoming possible heat wave from Sunday 27th January. I throw any credibility I have out there and say we may top 40C

EC going for top maximums of 28C for Christchurch next week lol

There is more than one location in New Zealand! I wasnt referring to Christchurch when I said 'we' but meant NZ. Christchurch will be hotter than 28C

[Bradley]

EC going for top maximums of 28C for Christchurch next week lol

There is more than one location in New Zealand! I wasnt referring to Christchurch when I said 'we' but meant NZ. Christchurch will be hotter than 28C

I was laughing at EC's forecast of 28C, 850hpa temps 4-5C hotter then today with no cloud cover and we are already at 31C in Christchurch today so mid 30's could be very possible for Christchurch...

[Richard]

And looking at mid next week winds could well be light over most of the country, that could spell high heat for inland areas also. Been quite a few summers now without a stationary high pressure over or slightly to the NE of the NI which bakes the inland SI areas

[Chris W]

I'm cautiously looking at whether we in Chch and other eastern areas get to the high thirties, but from what I've seen I think at least 35C is likely. Watch me be wrong though, it has happened before!

[TonyT]

Thought it might be best to have a separate thread for the upcoming possible heat wave from Sunday 27th January. I throw any credibility I have out there and say we may top 40C

EC going for top maximums of 28C for Christchurch next week lol

Dont be so harsh and take it literally. Its a global model with resolution limitations, and none of these broader scale models handle our fohn temperatures well. Its guidance, not a forecast. People who work with this data regularly know how to interpret it and use the guidance to shape the predicted reality.

[cbm]

The Waikato forecast keeps getting warmer. This won't be pleasant if it pans out. These temperatures are occurring without any foehn effect wind. Had a "feels like" of 33.5 or so at the peak of the Jan 2018 sequence of similar temperatures.

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[jamie]

Yea looks a hot spell. Just went and got myself a better fan!

Will have to sit in the pool with beers all afternoon I think.


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[Cyclone Tracy]

On Saturday evening the BoM's Access R model is modelling 26c to 27c @850 hPa over the Tasman off NSW & Victoria. I don't ever recall seeing such temperatures over parts of the southern Tasman before Maybe 8th Feb 2009? The Tasman will cool it off but this is a serious piece of warm atmosphere coming towards NZ.

The heat mass responsible just produced a 49.5c at a South Australian BoM site today. Victoria goes for the record books tomorrow.

[cbm]

Yea looks a hot spell. Just went and got myself a better fan!

Will have to sit in the pool with beers all afternoon I think.


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Looked into evaporate coolers but don't think will work very well at the expected 50-60% RH at those temperatures.
Today's 24C/12DP was very pleasant - perfect for a quick lunchtime walk, the calm before the storm.
been digging in Clifo , Ruakura's all time max 34.7 was in December 1935. Looks like two summers in a row 34/35 and 35/36 temperatures soared then went back to normal. Wonder what was going on at the time.

[Chris W]

On Saturday evening the BoM's Access R model is modelling 26c to 27c @850 hPa over the Tasman off NSW & Victoria. I don't ever recall seeing such temperatures over parts of the southern Tasman before Maybe 8th Feb 2009? The Tasman will cool it off but this is a serious piece of warm atmosphere coming towards NZ.

The heat mass responsible just produced a 49.5c at a South Australian BoM site today. Victoria goes for the record books tomorrow.

The very warm Tasman won’t cool it as much as it would in any year other than this or last year. It’s going to be very interesting to see what we do end up with.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I don't think it will be as hot as the February 2011 heatwave when it got to 40.3C at Levels on, Waitangi Day, Sunday the 6th of February. If it was 40.3C at Timaru airport, it would of been much hotter here in Geraldine
I remember MetService in their weather page for Timaru that day, with regards to the amount of clothing to be worn, they said "nothing"
Other hot temperatures recorded were:
Oamaru 36.4C
Ashburton and Christchurch Airport (not Riccarton? ) 35.9C
West Melton,(me) 35.8C.
Dunedin 35.2C.

There would of been other "hot-spots" but the above is from the list I had in my weather diary for that day.

[Richard]

The bulk of the coming heat wave will be inland away from the coast by the look of it, the MetS have my area with 6 days in a row over 31deg

[midgrove]

I agree that the high temps will be inland, the Northwest flow is not strong enough to reach the coast so I cant see why MS are forecasting low to mid 30s for Blenheim. In this type of situation heat lows develop inland and suck in the sea breeze which would cool east coast areas

[David]

GFS showing 37C for inland Canterbury on 1st Feb.

[Richard]

I agree that the high temps will be inland, the Northwest flow is not strong enough to reach the coast so I cant see why MS are forecasting low to mid 30s for Blenheim. In this type of situation heat lows develop inland and suck in the sea breeze which would cool east coast areas

Blemheim does seem to be influenced more by light NW flows than say Christchurch

[melja]

About a 100km long valley leading down from the high country to the NW of Blenheim makes it very easy for the wind to reach the coast, not to mention the proximity to cook strait.

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[Chris W]

MetService are going with the sea breeze being a factor for Chch at least over the weekend, but once the NW becomes strong enough inland/touches down at the surface then we'll heat up. So a warm weekend for the city but hotter on Monday.

[David]

GFS model has Taupo getting to 35C on Tuesday afternoon. Will be an interesting week coming up.

Had a few more comfortable days here today and yesterday with 23/24C. Wonder if we'll break the 30 mark next week here.

[cbm]

It has me still on 32 at 6pm on that day, yikes.

[Chris W]

The norwester seems to have been ramped up in the models today, and moved further north. MetService now have 30C for Chch on Sunday and 33C on Monday and also Friday next week. Severe gales for Otago and inland Canterbury on Sunday-Monday.

[Richard]

And those gale will keep the temps down slightly for us inland till they ease off Tuesday, that's when the grill will be turn up

[Bradley]

It looks like a great day for the beer festival in Hagley Park today with temps in the low 20’s most of the day, cloud clearing in the morning though so will have to make sure I bring a hat and slap on the sunscreen In terms of next week I can’t see anything other then one of the hottest 5-6 day periods Christchurch has had on record, every day with 850hpa temps of 18C+ and Friday showing signs of 850hpa temps of 20-22C for the majority of the east coast of the South Island which could easily translate into inland sheltered areas reaching close to 40C

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