North Queensland floods

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 01/02/2019 14:50

A deepening monsoonal low near the Gulf of Carpentaria in western Qld is pushing a vigorous northwest flow into a stationary convergence zone off the Far North / North Queensland coasts. Models went wild on rainfall totals 4 days ago which seems to be now playing out.

Rivers and major dams are now being watched like never before in region due to likelihood of much heavier rain to come in the next 4 days. Here are the current rainfall totals up to 9am 1st February which in isolation can be expected with a powerful monsoon trough….but it is the projected synoptic situation which is quite alarming for North Queensland. If EC and the UKM are anywhere near correct for the next 144 hours, this is a major disaster unfolding for North Queensland.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 01/02/2019 16:08

Ross Dam on the outskirts of Townsville has reached a record level of 41 metres and rising. Stage 2 of dam release strategy has now been implemented which will most likely mean home inundation for certain areas around Townsville near the Ross River. All dam gates will be opened at 42.50 metres with stage 3. Stage 5 is the highest level, which would most likely mean Dam failure (around 48m).

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 01/02/2019 20:40

Mid level moisture is increasing north of the monsoon trough on the latest water vapour image and will feed into the convergence zone overnight and into tomorrow around North Queensland. The BoM's 7 day Townsville forecast is surreal and is now reflecting rainfall totals from todays EC and UK 12z runs. I can't recall ever seeing a BoM forecast like this before.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 01/02/2019 21:21

That is impressive alright, but I see a gradual easing out as the week goes, next three days though looks major.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 02/02/2019 09:01

Is the Himawari-8 play up atm ?

not seeing many frames this morning and less than yesterday.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 02/02/2019 10:16

Richard wrote: ↑Sat 02/02/2019 09:01 Is the Himawari-8 play up atm ? not seeing many frames this morning and less than yesterday.

On the BoM I think it is playing up. Here is the first delight snap at 10am NZT.

Some serious north west monsoonal flow into the coral sea this morning with deep convection around the Cape York peninsula. Water ways are under siege this morning in the catchments around Townsville. Another 200 to 400mm in the last 24 hours in those areas. Interesting 24 hours ahead as the convergence zone will continue to be reinvigorated.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 02/02/2019 10:22

Ross River dam is now at 193% water storage capacity (100% is when it starts to spill). Around 330% = full flood capacity before a likely dam failure. Those dam engineers would be earning their money at the moment.

The dam level is now unprecedented on the chart.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 02/02/2019 11:26

The station called "Woolshed" is getting hammered. Had 160mm in 4 hours this morning. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 5293.shtml

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 02/02/2019 20:53

Interesting times ahead getting worse by the hour....spent 7 years living in Cairns experienced a couple of huge monsoon events mostly when the southeast winds caused by southern highs collided with the south moving monsoon troughs

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 03/02/2019 11:42

Convergence zone has shifted slightly south with the monsoon trough currently near Townsville. Another 150 to 320mm has dumped in the last 24 hours up to 11am NZT , 3 Feb, Ingham north of Townsville had 506mm. Several sites around Townsville are well over a metre of rain for the event so far. High tide this morning would be complicating flooding for Townsville suburbs with the Ross river in a major flood mode.

Ross river dam is currently at 217 % storage capacity and holding with gates close to fully opened. Full flood capacity is around 360 to 370%. My understanding is that if this level is reached (unlikely), they will use explosives to collapse a southern area of the dam and flood another valley to save Townsville.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 03/02/2019 12:19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-03/ ... Q4iFizAA_U

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 03/02/2019 16:34

Intensifying convergence over the Ross River Dam catchment has triggered a serious warning from the BoM. I'm seeing 130 to 200mm being observed in the last 4 hours and its not moving.

Text from the BoM.

DQ21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Transmitters serving the area ROSS RIVER DAM CATCHMENT are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin Forecast District.
Issued at 12:43 pm Sunday, 3 February 2019.
INTENSE RAINFALL BEING OBSERVED OVER ROSS RIVER DAM CATCHMENT - SERIOUS SITUATION

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 03/02/2019 17:15

A gauge on the south side of the Ross River Dam has had nearly 300mm in 5 hours

Military are now door knocking suburbs in Townsville along the Ross River as all flood gates on the dam will need to be fully opened. The Dam is now spiking to 236% storage capacity (5% rise in the last hour). More development in the middle levels of the troposphere in the Coral sea is now underway to the north of Townsville.

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Sun 03/02/2019 17:52

Saw this on Twitter, Townsville rain gauge

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 03/02/2019 20:01

Major plumes of moisture now showing in the mid levels in the troposphere north of Townsville with a NE flow off the Coral sea pushing into the monsoon trough.

A history making decision has just been made by the Townsville city council and Queensland government. The flood gates will be fully opened at 11.30pm NZT tonight to avoid a Ross river dam failure. This decision will devastate low lying suburbs of Townsville by tomorrow morning.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 04/02/2019 10:56

The monsoon low in NW Queensland has barely moved, so the monsoon trough is still just north of Townsville. The BoM yesterday based their forecast on EC which had the trough moving south but unfortunately for Townsville, EC got it wrong…. The trough remained stationary and widespread 150 to 400mm converged into the Townsville region again. Unless the trough moves south, I can see another coral sea feed convergence zone developing again today around the same region or a little more south. To put some icing on the cake, a monsoonal ocean eddy has also developed in Coral sea off Townsville, which are notorious for generating high winds, water spouts and tornadoes....and now croc’s are also coming into the town streets as they become confused on where the river and creek edges are.

20,000 homes have now been evacuated in Townsville and are going under. Ross River dam, automatically opened the flood gates at 8.07pm local time last night as the height of the water reach 43m ASL. Dam levels have stabilised since but watch this space. The Ross River will peak in Townsville between 2pm (NZT) and 2am (NZT) but could be sustained for longer if more heavy rain commences. This will most likely be one of the great flood disasters in Australian history.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 04/02/2019 13:05

Big few hours for Townsville coming up. A new rain band is incoming and the risk for the city is if it gets caught in the convergence band, back fills, redevelops and stalls. Townsville needs this rainband and convergence zone to keep moving south .

Cantab03 · Unread post by **Cantab03** » Mon 04/02/2019 13:49

Looking at the current radar, it would seem that the band is going to get south of Townsville first....bit of luck finally on their side I would say.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 04/02/2019 13:55

Words not needed for this footage.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 05/02/2019 11:14

Woolshed inland from Townsville now up to 1850mm for the event

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 07/02/2019 10:36

Some notable mentions for rainfall over the last 11 days to 7am AEST this morning around North Queensland.

Paluma 2406mm
Paluma Alert 2299mm
Upper Bluewater 2235mm
Woolshed 1988mm

(Townsville 1273mm)

Also NW Queensland have copped it as well. Basically an inland ocean. This could also produce a 'Brown Ocean Effect' if a tropical cyclone passes over this area in the next few weeks.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 03/04/2019 14:33

2 months on and parts of the Townsville still have tough times ahead due to this rainfall event.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-02/ ... y_u7sCZvuk

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