Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 19/02/2019 08:39

There is still model variation on what TC Oma will do however severe potential for here looks a lot less now.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/02/2019 13:05

harleyb wrote: ↑Sat 16/02/2019 10:57 Wait for the media to go overboard on it. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. Perhaps it will be "Cyclone Oma-geddon", or "Cyclone Oma-God" or even "Cyclone OMG"... no doubt something overly sensational.

It's sort of started with a headline, I saw today, somewhere saying "Ominous Oma"

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 19/02/2019 13:14

TonyT wrote: ↑Mon 18/02/2019 10:39 Mods please move posts in here as and when appropriate from other threads, and alter title/date as we get nearer to reflect any changes.

Moving done from General Feb thread

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Tue 19/02/2019 13:59

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 19/02/2019 13:05
harleyb wrote: ↑Sat 16/02/2019 10:57 Wait for the media to go overboard on it. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. Perhaps it will be "Cyclone Oma-geddon", or "Cyclone Oma-God" or even "Cyclone OMG"... no doubt something overly sensational.
It's sort of started with a headline, I saw today, somewhere saying "Ominous Oma"

Yes... and I see the NZ Herald is now click-baiting with the lead headline: "Cyclone Oma destruction will be 'devastating'" -- never mind that most models have recently backed away from an ex-Oma coming anywhere near NZ at all.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 19/02/2019 14:14

To be fair on them though these were the words of Metservice.

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harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Tue 19/02/2019 14:31

True, but what I find annoying is the certainty portrayed by the headline to encourage the punters to click on it only to find out that Oma will be devastating "if" it hits NZ, whereas if you take the headline at face value you get the impression that NZ "will be devastated".

But fair enough if you were to take those early model runs as fact... they did have "devastating" written all over them. Now though it is looking much less certain & Oma may well be heading for Qld instead.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 20/02/2019 21:47

EC has seriously downgraded the amount of moisture for Canterbury the last few runs now, 10-15mm now looks more likely for the event

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 20/02/2019 22:47

We might get a bit of rain from these systems but I think,because of global warming , there is going to be an intense high moving in from the west which will stuff everything up for the next few days?

EC have a surface high of 1030hPa which we haven't seen for a while.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 21/02/2019 08:26

Well GFS is certainly down scaling things to not much of anything unusual at all

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Thu 21/02/2019 08:51

Are the models struggling to deal with the strength/endurance of this year's subtropical ridge? I haven't seen this morning's outputs yet, but last night GFS and BOM were both going for a soaking from Chch northwards to around Wellington.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 21/02/2019 09:09

The upper air is cold over Canterbury at the weekend so you should get some reasonable rain. The main rain chance here looks like tomorrow evening and Sunday morning using the GFS.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 21/02/2019 10:19

Perfect holiday weather for us in Marlb/Tasman/Golden Bay 10th-19th. Now it can rain! (but not too heavily).

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 21/02/2019 21:33

Be interesting to see if much rain eventuates tomorrow. Metservice 3 day model shows some decent rain making its way down to here tomorrow evening, GFS on the other hand shows very little.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 22/02/2019 06:56

High for Dunedin on Sunday is 13C.

850mb down to -2C, not unheard of in February.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 22/02/2019 07:25

Had 8.6mm here last few hours already

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 22/02/2019 07:41

The sound of rain on the roof here earlier but only brief. Greylynn showing 0.8 mm. Radar shows heavier showers coming off the Gulf onto east Ak currently.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 22/02/2019 07:56

Steady rain here since just after 7am... 4mm so far…

So nice to get some decent rain again after just 14mm since Xmas...

Edit: Make that 6mm in about 1.5 hrs... hopefully more to come…

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 22/02/2019 12:36

A brief shower here near daybreak otherwise been dry. GFS indicating some patchy rain for the next 24hrs.

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Fri 22/02/2019 12:52

Bit of rain heading for Auckland, peak traffic will be chaos again.

2019-02-22_12-26-56.jpg

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My guess is it will hit Auckland between 1500 and 1600 hours this afternoon.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 23/02/2019 06:56

32mm of mostly nice steady light rain/drizzle here over the last 24 hrs…

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 23/02/2019 07:39

Have had nearly 27mm here

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 23/02/2019 07:46

15mm here.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 23/02/2019 08:29

Lucky buggers. Just on 10mm here. Probably enough to start the rot down of dead grass, basically meaning we are now much shorter on grass given the dry stuff animals could eat is now rotting and they won’t eat it. Also that there wasn’t enough rain to get the grass growing well.

Fingers crossed for more follow up rains.

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spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 23/02/2019 08:32

Around 15mm from light rain for my area.

GFS is pointing to fine sunny conditions for the upper NI right through next week starting later tomorrow.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 23/02/2019 09:21

Almost doubled 2019's total so far with 16mm here

NZ Weather Forum

Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: General February weather

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: General February weather

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

Re: Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th