Severe weather (ex TC, very cold S, deep troughs etc) Feb 23rd to 26th

[einzack]

Next weekend:

[Dean.]

Next weekend:

What Tony has been seeing for a few days now

[harleyb]

Next weekend:

Watch the media jump all over this in the next few days irrespective of how it actually pans out. Will it be a "Weather bomb" or a "Stormageddon" or ...?

[Richard]

Next weekend:

Yes starting to look promising alright, but its too early yet to get excited

gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2019021418z.fcst-201902230700z.mslp.nz.0...png

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes starting to look promising alright, but its too early yet to get excited

Ex TC Ona.
I wouldn't get excited over it but it could be a good rain maker for places that need it.
Hopefully, it won't do erosion damage on the West Coast like last year's ex TCs did.

[NZstorm]

Seems like there will be cyclogenesis over the country end of next week but whether its the product on an exTC or the polar jet, we'll have to see.

[spwill]

There is still wide model variation for later next week.

[harleyb]

There is still wide model variation for later next week.

Yes quite a spread but starting to show more of a bias towards the northern North Island by around Saturday. Still very early days yet.

Even if this doesn't come to pass doesn't it look amazing as a model projection at this point. You don't see this very often.

Wait for the media to go overboard on it. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. Perhaps it will be "Cyclone Oma-geddon", or "Cyclone Oma-God" or even "Cyclone OMG"... no doubt something overly sensational.

[Ash]

Starting to look more and more like a wild ride next weekend.

[Thunder081]

There is still wide model variation for later next week.

Wait for the media to go overboard on it. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. Perhaps it will be "Cyclone Oma-geddon", or "Cyclone Oma-God" or even "Cyclone OMG"... no doubt something overly sensational.

Haha I'm also surprised that the media haven't latched onto it yet.

[Chris W]

Wait for it to make a beeline for Oma-rama and have the Mahnamahna song on in the background of news broadcasts about it.

[Ash]

Next Sat GFS still predicting a cyclone (?) Impacting NI. 956 central pressure after crossing the NI off the east coast.

[NZstorm]

Looking like the exTC won't make it to NZ and a significant polar jet stream coming through next weekend.
Will feel like autumn for a few days.

[spwill]

Will keep an eye on next weekend. The pattern of the Summer so far has largely kept the tropics out. Westerly pattern and ridging have been dominant over our region and currently a negative SAM phase.

[Richard]

Models are still flipping about, now GFS has the ex cyclone crossing the NI, hope it stays on this track which will give the country a good much needed drinking.

[harleyb]

I know this is only a model run, but it's just so spectacular.... I have never seen anything like it

[spwill]

Still have that model variation on where the tropical system will move later in the week but looking wet for most parts of NZ this weekend, very stormy conditions if the GFS is correct.

[Razor]

I recall GFS doing a far better job than EC with ex TC's impacting NZ during last summer. Watching with much interest!

[TonyT]

For discussion of TC Oma over and near NZ once it becomes ex-tropical, plus the very cold southerly outbreaks expected by most models around the same time, plus possible major low pressure/depression/cyclogenesis around NZ in that time frame. Mods please move posts in here as and when appropriate from other threads, and alter title/date as we get nearer to reflect any changes.

[Storm Struck]

Yes those surface models do seem to get the complex systems bang on, compared to the typical southern lows.
If it does pull through we are looking at 100+mm for the city and much more further inland, as is the case with E-SE flows there will be sheltering for the city but i feel the general angle this comes in on wont make too much difference.
In terms of wind it will with just strong gusty winds, kaikoura coastline on the other hand .

In the meantime a good cold shortwave due through Friday PM could see thunderstorms and hail through canterbury marlborough and snow around 1000m. First one to watch i feel.

[Chris W]

BOM Access-R has Oma staying away within the length of its current run, but a polar-subtropical system developing to her southeast over NZ later in the run instead. Whatever way it looks like from about Chch northwards will get pretty wet in a few days' time.

Edit - that said, Metvuw going beyond that timeframe does finally have Oma approaching us and showing the dramatic outputs others have posted in this and the TC thread.

[JP.]

Myself and 10 friends have a commercial fishing charter booked in the Marlborough sounds (leaving Havelock) booked this weekend. Hoping to not have to be trapped below deck all weekend...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

For discussion of TC Oma over and near NZ once it becomes ex-tropical, plus the very cold southerly outbreaks expected by most models around the same time, plus possible major low pressure/depression/cyclogenesis around NZ in that time frame. Mods please move posts in here as and when appropriate from other threads, and alter title/date as we get nearer to reflect any changes.

I agree. This could be a major topic/discussion for February, which deserves it's own topic.

[jamie]

At this current point in time, I get the feeling a clash of cold and warm air occurring over the country is looking less and less likely. Seems the GFS and EC are very very slowly coming into line with each other?


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[Razor]

Yes latest GFS certainly has that wee plot twist. Decent low still forming independantly tho