Front and upper low 7 - 9 March

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 07/03/2019 20:08

I thought this one might as well have its own thread with some reasonable potential in certain areas of the SI and NI. Tonight, the front is currently moving through parts of the SI. Some prefrontal showers in parts of the NI. Overnight into Friday is the main day.

All the best, hope you get good drop.

UKMet 0703 00Z 72hr rainfall projection.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Thu 07/03/2019 20:52

metservice is saying thunderstorm risk for auckland. hope no tornadoes happen

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 07/03/2019 21:00

40mm would be excellent... held off watering anything today in the hopes that tomorrow won't be a fizzer

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Thu 07/03/2019 21:24

Raining in Ashburton now, and wind round to SW.

BeaconHill · Unread post by **BeaconHill** » Thu 07/03/2019 21:47

Wellington rain radar picking up the arch cloud above Chch?

0FD79DFE-ACF0-41F9-849D-EFF172BF53FF.jpeg

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 07/03/2019 21:49

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Thu 07/03/2019 21:47 Wellington rain radar picking up the arch cloud above Chch?

0FD79DFE-ACF0-41F9-849D-EFF172BF53FF.jpeg

Yes, not raining here yet.

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Thu 07/03/2019 22:33

It rained from the arch cloud around 7-8pm, moderately heavy for a short time. Looks like a decent amount of rain overnight, our first in a while.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Thu 07/03/2019 22:36

We could really use some useful rain up here. So long as rainfall rate stays below 35m/hr, bring it. As where we live is on a flood plane these days, anything 40mm/hr and above is not welcome. I'm not holding my breath, but some useful rainfall would be appreciated (even though the hedge will go nuts, and I hate having to deal with it's growth).

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 08/03/2019 08:59

Didn't get below 20C here last night.

I see some west Auckland areas got a little heavy rain yesterday arvo from the odd convective cell, including 30mm in the hour to 5:20pm at this inland Karekare PWS (36mm total).

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 08/03/2019 09:00

Heavy rain warning and moderate T-storm risk still in force for eastern Bay of Plenty today.

MS also maintaining their moderate risk of T-storms this arvo for Northland, Auckland, the Hauraki Gulf, Coromandel and northern Waikato. Been a while…

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Friday 8 Mar 2019
Issued at: 8:46am Friday 8 Mar 2019

A slow-moving trough lies over the eastern Bay of Plenty. A front is expected to move over the North Island today, bringing rain to most places.

There is a generally low risk of thunderstorms associated with the trough and front, affecting Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay during the day, and northwest Nelson, the Marlborough Sounds, Taranaki, Waitomo, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland and Northland this morning and afternoon.

For Northland, Auckland and northern Waikato, the risk of thunderstorms is moderate during the afternoon. These thunderstorms could bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour.

About eastern Bay of Plenty and inland Gisborne, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and small hail. There is a low risk that some of these thunderstorms become severe with downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour.

No other areas of thunderstorms or severe convection are expected.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map for Mar 8.png

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/03/2019 09:07

I see Nelson has picked up 25mm this morning, that will be welcomed with open arms I imagine

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 08/03/2019 09:53

Had 10.6mm so far

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 08/03/2019 10:10

Reports of some flooding in Wellington - 22mm there in the last 2 hrs…

Also 24mm in New Plymouth and a little windy this morning…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily- ... w-plymouth

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 08/03/2019 10:37

Good to see some really dry areas getting a nice drop. I'm sitting on 36.6mm YTD, I'm hoping this rain band can maintain its energy and double that total but 20mm might be more realistic.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 08/03/2019 11:37

Nev wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 10:10 Reports of some flooding in Wellington - 22mm there in the last 2 hrs…

Yes. Really chucking it down for most of the morning.
I'm at Belmont in the Hutt valley at the moment.

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Fri 08/03/2019 11:44

Good temperature drop with front see Auckland airport now 16.9 after 23 just before. My station still on 24.4, won't be for long.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 08/03/2019 12:24

Unusual for Auckland to get a temperature drop like that, some patchy rain arrived here with a very brief
gusty wind change.

Perhaps some thunder early tomorrow afternoon North Auckland.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 08/03/2019 12:36

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 11:37
Nev wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 10:10 Reports of some flooding in Wellington - 22mm there in the last 2 hrs…
Yes. Really chucking it down for most of the morning.
I'm at Belmont in the Hutt valley at the moment.

So you've made it rain … at last I can postpone watering, perhaps for the season.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 08/03/2019 13:11

MS's Wainuiomata site has recorded over 90mm so far today, 79mm of which fell in just 4 hrs.
Lower Hutt over 50mm…

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/03/2019 13:21

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 10:37 20mm might be more realistic.

Even that is looking unlikely now

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 08/03/2019 13:36

David wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 13:21
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 10:37 20mm might be more realistic.
Even that is looking unlikely now

I still have hope

There is still plenty of moisture in the mid levels NW of Auckland that is not on the radar. Hopefully it squeezes down to the surface in the next few hours. Time will tell.

Great falls down south.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Fri 08/03/2019 15:02

15mm so far in Swanson today, plus the 5.3mm yesterday... looks like I will be mowing the lawns again sometime soon!

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Fri 08/03/2019 15:55

The line seems to have stalled or even going West again, didn't see that in the modelling. That's useful for some more Western areas like Raglan that were extra dry. Up to 16mm on mine, going to pass 20 eaisly.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 08/03/2019 17:14

Made it to 20mm in Howick, looks to be starting to clear now

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 08/03/2019 17:16

Nev wrote: ↑Fri 08/03/2019 13:11 MS's Wainuiomata site has recorded over 90mm so far today, 79mm of which fell in just 4 hrs.
Lower Hutt over 50mm…

Typical Wellington story - first decent rain in ages and the usual things happen. Doesn't take much to cause a slip or two. I wouldn't want to count the number of unstable looking banks and slopes bordering our roads.

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Front and upper low 7 - 9 March

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