UK Weather - Spring 2019

[Simon Culling]

I have been in France for the last near 2 weeks, so I have missed the start to the UK weather for Spring 2019. A quick look through the forums suggests it has been on the mild side but rather wet and windy. Two further named storms have occurred (Freya on 3rd/4th March + currently we have Gareth for 12th/13th March), but the worst effects seem to have been for more northern parts of the UK.

The changeable weather has led to difficult snow conditions on the Scottish mountains and sadly there were three fatalities yesterday following an avalanche on Ben Nevis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-47543471

The CET for March was 7.2°C (+2.1°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 59mm up to the 11th, which is 80% of the monthly average of 74mm.

[Simon Culling]

The very unsettled weather has continued unabated and today (Sat 16th March) has been no exception. It has been very windy (frequent gusts to 50mph) with occasional drizzle or rain here in Hythe - the only saving grace is that it is still mild at 11°C this afternoon. The depression concerned, which has not been named, was over Northern Ireland at 06:00 this morning at 985mb, but it is developing quite rapidly and moving quickly east and will be approaching southern Scandinavia by midnight at around 965mb. Most of the precipitation has been in the west and north so far, with snow over many parts of Scotland this morning, but it will move east tonight to give all areas a drenching. It is certainly making up for the generally dry winter!

Looking ahead, as the current low moves away, high pressure will build from the SW and the weather will be much calmer next week, especially in more southern parts. The Met Office are going for 18°C in the south by Friday.

[Simon Culling]

A big change in the weather is underway with a shift from the very unsettled weather to much more settled conditions, especially for the southern half of the UK. High pressure is building in from the SW and will sit to the south of the UK for much of the week and into the weekend bringing dry albeit rather cloudy weather. It will also remain on the mild side.

Northern Ireland has had its wettest March on record (since 1910) with a total of 151.8mm up to the 17th. The old record was not quoted, but for the full month I think it was 147mm in 1992.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 0545331200

The CET for March was 7.4°C (+2.1°C) up to the 18th and the EWR was 92mm up to the 17th, which is 124% of the monthly average. It should be noted that this rainfall figure is skewed towards the NW of England + Wales as per the map in the link.

[Simon Culling]

As per the forecast, the taps were turned off at the end of last weekend and it has been generally dry this week as high pressure to the SW has persisted and driven the frontal systems further north - the NW of Scotland and Ireland have not escaped the rain. It has been mostly cloudy for much of the country, but the cloud has broken in the last few days in central and eastern England and this has given these areas some warm days. Right on the east coast, the climate site at Whitby (famous as the place that inspired Bram Stoker to write his novel, Dracula) recorded 19.7°C on Wednesday and 19.3°C on Thursday (21st March).

The high pressure is expected to persist to our south for quite some time and the ensembles suggest little or no rain for the rest of March in the southern half of the UK.

[Orion]

^ - as Samuel Pepys wrote in his Diary for March 18, 1665/66: "very fine fair dry weather, but all cry out for lack of rain" -

but, as the proverb says, "a peck of March dust is worth a king's ransom"

[Simon Culling]

Orion, thanks for the quote from Mr Pepys - he wrote a wonderful diary in London in the seventeenth century. For those not aware of his writings, his diary can be read here:

https://www.pepysdiary.com/

The cloud mostly cleared over the weekend and we have a few days of pleasant sunshine - quite warm days (around 12°C/14°C) with a nip of frost overnight. This pattern will continue through the rest of the week with the temperatures rising a little later on before what looks like a significant cooldown by the end of next weekend. I am having a new roof fitted to my house purchase in Tiverton, Devon next week, so I am hoping for no rain!

The CET for March was 7.9°C (+2.4°C) up to the 25th and the EWR was 94mm up to the 24th, which is 127% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The settled and increasingly warm weather persisted all week over much of the UK (away from more north westerly parts) with sunny days and clear nights, with some local frost and fog. Daytime highs for the last three days were:

Weds 27th March - 16.6°C at Cardiff Bute Park
Thurs 28th March - 16.8°C at Fyvie Castle (NE Scotland)
Fri 29th March - 19.0°C at Sheffield (Weston Park)

It has continued warm and sunny into the weekend and we may just see a 20°C recorded in and around London today. However, a dry cold front will move SE through the general high pressure tonight to give a much cooler and fresher day on Sunday and this will herald a much cooler and more unsettled spell for next week with even a few wintry showers in the far north. Just as I am about to have my new house re-roofed!

[Simon Culling]

Saturday (30th March) was indeed a lovely warm day for early spring - here in Hythe it was sunny all day (with just a few Cu) and the mercury hit 17°C. The highest temperatures were recorded in the London area:

20.1°C at Battersea Heliport
19.8°C at Kew Gardens
19.5°C at St James Park + RAF Northolt
19.4°C at RHS Wisley
19.2°C at Charlwood

Sunday was quite a bit cooler, especially further north in Scotland, with some wintry showers to higher ground. This colder air will progressively move south this week behind a number of fronts and we will see plenty of 'April showers', some of which will contain hail, sleet and snow and the odd rumble of thunder. This is typical April weather for the UK at this time of the year. The good news is that now the clocks have gone forward an hour the evenings will be much longer.

[Simon Culling]

The mild weather hung on in the south on Monday with a maximum of 16.9°C at Gosport Fleetlands, which is not too far from me here in Hythe - it was a lovely blue sky day with only a light breeze. However, temperatures on Tuesday (2nd April) were at least 5°C lower over the UK and we had plenty of showers with hail and some thunder and a little snow to the high ground.

We have the rather unusual situation of a low pressure system moving from east to west today (Weds) rather than the usual west to east. It is currently (06:00GMT, Weds 3rd April) at 996mb and just off the east coast of Scotland, but it is forecast to be over south Wales by 12:00GMT on Thursday and have lowered to 986mb. After this, it will dumbbell to our SW as high pressure builds to the north of the UK. This will gives us a cold couple of days with plenty of wintry showers and a little frost at night, but as a more south easterly flow develops on Friday it will dry out and slowly warm up.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I see, (not the wrong posting) but in this morning's Timaru Herald it said, snow for London with a maximum of 9C from zero. Is that correct?

[Simon Culling]

Hello John, the forecast of snow in London is not necessarily wrong. April can bring cold air from the Arctic (as is the case this year) with steep lapse rates. This combined with stronger daytime heating gives plenty of showers of rain and hail during which the temperature will often drop 5°C or more and this will give some wet snow in the showers. Hence a day of snow in London - but nothing will be visible on the ground - we would much more likely see temporary coverings of hail.

The last few days have been cold and showery over the UK with plenty of hail and wet snow showers. In the SW it rained all day yesterday (Fri 5th April) and it was rather cold at just 7°C, and this stopped work on my new roof. It will be drier and warmer over the weekend, but we will pick up a cooler easterly next week.

The final CET for March was 7.8°C (+2.1°C) and the final EWR was 95mm, which is 128% of the monthly average. All bar 1mm of this fell in the first 16 days. More details on March can be found in this blog entry by the Met Office - it was warmer, wetter and sunnier than average - an unusual combination:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/04/0 ... wet-march/

[Simon Culling]

Some quite warm air was advected north westwards into parts of the SE of England from Europe yesterday and where the cloud broke (in a swathe from East Anglia to NW England) temperatures up to 19°C/20°C were recorded. This helped initiate a few home grown thunderstorms in the Midlands late in the afternoon and into the evening on the northern edge of a front just to the south west of this sunny area - under the cloud and drizzle on this front the temperature was around 9°C/10°C. Not a 'plume' event, but more initiated by local convergence and surface heating tapping into the mid-level instability and moisture near to the weak warm front.

We will see quite a change in the weather this week as high pressure builds over Scandinavia and the front over us is pushed away to the SW with a fetch of eat/north east winds coming all the way from Russia. It will get colder day by day from today (Tuesday 9th April), but at least we will see some sunshine. it will be rather chilly by the weekend with daytime temperatures struggling to break 10°C in many places and frost overnight.

The CET for April was 7.1°C (+0.6°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 23mm also up to the 7th, which is 37% of the monthly average of 62mm.

[Simon Culling]

It has been a little cooler in the last few days with some quite sharp frosts at night, but the days have been mostly sunny and with the sun much stronger now, it has felt pleasant. The temperature fell to -6.8°C at Braemar on Wednesday morning (10th April) and to -4.4°C this morning (Saturday) at Woburn in the English Midlands. These are not unusual for mid-April and remind the gardeners amongst us that delicate plants should either be protected or not planted out until well into May.

The coldest of the air will pass SW over the SE of England today (Saturday) and will bring a few showers of rain and graupel and a little sleet is not out of the question. After this air drifts away, we will see a low in the centre of the Atlantic attempt (and probably fail) to push fronts into the UK against the Scandinavian blocking high and this will begin to veer the wind from NE to SE by mid-week and bring much warmer air into the country. We could be looking at 20°C by the Easter weekend and perhaps a few thundery showers.

[Simon Culling]

It was quite chilly over the weekend in a fresh NE breeze and there were a few wintry showers in the SE of England but also plenty of sunshine for most. Most of the showers were of graupel, but sleet and wet snow was observed over the South Downs and Chiltern hills. There were also some sharp frosts with the mercury falling to -5.3°C at both Woburn and South Newington in the heart of southern England on Sunday morning.

The blocking high over Scandinavia has persisted, but an almost stationery front stalled over Eire at the weekend and this has given 100m+ of rain in a few places in the last two days or so. Some rain just edged into Cornwall + Devon, but only the very far SW tip received anything worthwhile. This rain over Eire will persist for much of Monday (15th April).

As previously mentioned, we will be drawing up a south easterly feed from today and the temperatures will slowly rise during the week - should be a reasonable amount of sunshine as well. It could be a nice Easter weekend with some sunshine and temperatures of 20/22°C in the SE.

The CET for April was 6.9°C (on average) up to the 14th and the EWR was 27mm up to the 13th, which is 44% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has definitely warmed up in the last few days and the first of 4 or 5 days of fine and warm weather started on Thursday 18th April. I was in Tiverton, Devon, and it was sunny all day yesterday, although with plenty of cirrus and cirrostratus (faint halo around the sun at times), the sunshine was quite hazy for most of the day. The mercury hit 21°C in the town, but it was even warmer further east and especially near to the south coast. The highest temperatures I can find for the 18th were:

23.3°C at Wiggonholt (W Sussex)
22.6°C at Otterbourne (Hampshire)
22.4°C at Herstmonceux (E Sussex)
21.8°C at Shoreham Airport + London Heathrow Airport.

It will get a little warmer over the Easter weekend and we should see at least 25°C somewhere on Saturday with plenty of sunshine over most of the UK - the far NW may see some cloud and a little rain at times.

[Simon Culling]

Good Friday was also dry and sunny over most of the UK (just the far NW had some cloud and a little rain), and the temperature reached 24.2°C at both Gosport Fleetlands (Hants) and Ringmer (E Sussex). Saturday (20th April) saw a repeat of this weather pattern and it was a little warmer again - highest recorded temperatures were:

25.5°C at Gosport Fleetlands
25.0°C at Bournemouth Hurn Airport
24.9°C at Wiggonholt (W Sussex)
24.8°C at St James Park

Up to 13.8 hours of sunshine were recorded on this day - at East Malling (Kent).

The fine weather will continue through Easter Sunday + Monday with just a little rain in the far NW. With the blocking high persisting (just!) over Scandinavia, the flow remains generally easterly, but this will veer more to the SE or S from the middle of the coming week as a deep upper trough becomes established just to the west of the UK. This will certainly cool things down and we will see an increasing risk of showers from Wednesday - possibly some thunder as we transition to the cooler regime.

[Simon Culling]

Easter Sunday + Monday were warm and sunny over most of the UK, with even Scotland joining in. The maximum on Sunday was 24.6°C at both London Heathrow + RHS Wisley (Surrey) and for Monday it was a little higher at 25.0°C at all of London Heathrow, RAF Northolt, RHS Wisley + Chertsey Abbey Mead (Middlesex). There was more medium and high cloud on Monday and this gave a few showers in the far SW of England and into Eire and the sky did look a bit thundery here in Hythe with some AcCast.

Today (Tues 23rd April) will be the last of the warm days, although there is still quite a lot of Ac + Cirrus again. Inland in southern England we will see 23°C/24°C reached, but the weather will cool off quickly from tomorrow as bands of rain and showers sweep NE around a low which will become rather anchored to our SW. We will see daytime temperatures back down to 10-13°C by the weekend, with some snow over the mountains in the north.

The CET for April was 8.7°C (+1.3°C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 29mm also up to the 21st, which is 47% of the monthly total. The former will fall and the latter will rise this week.

[Simon Culling]

It has been much cooler and very showery over the last few days, with quite a few thunderstorms in the Midlands and northern England on Wednesday + Thursday. I was in Wellington (in Somerset) on the Thursday and we had a sharp shower just before lunch with hail close to 1cm in diameter. They made quite a noise on the factory roof and windows. Some of the storms further north were very photogenic with some beautiful shelf clouds seen and photographed, particularly in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. This linked tweet gives an idea:

https://twitter.com/Will__Armitage/stat ... 7749009410

A developing low has rather caught out the various met services in the last couple of days and affected the British Isle on Friday/Saturday and was named Storm Hannah by Met Eireann - they issued a red wind warning for the far SW of Ireland for gusts to 150km/hr late on Friday. It has been very windy here in the south, although nothing really damaging. The fresh westerly wind is continuing through Saturday afternoon, but the storm is now filling as it moves away into the Benelux countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48076132

[Simon Culling]

Friday night and into Saturday morning was rather windy in the west and over Eire as storm Hannah moved east across the UK. The highest wind gusts were actually in Wales rather than Eire:

82mph at Aberdaron
78mph at Capel Curig + Pembrey Sands
77mph at the Mumbles Lighthouse
76mph at Mace Head (Co Galway, Eire)
74mph at Shannon Airport (co Clare, Eire)

The weather quietened down on Sunday and today (Mon 29th April) it is now warmer and we have sunshine at times - it should reach 15°C/16°C in much of the south of England. However, after a warmer couple of days, the weather now looks to be turning unsettled again after mid-week with a cold northerly to start the May Bank Holiday weekend. Night frosts will be a problem for the gardeners.

The CET for April was 9.4°C (+1.7°C) up to the 27th and the EWR was 45mm also up to the 27th, which is 73% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The colder weather has slowly arrived from the north over the last day or so and reached the south this evening (Fri 3rd May - with snow showers falling in Scotland to low levels during Friday. The maximum temperature at Cassley (NW Highland) was just 5.9°C. Prior to this, it was still quite warm and dry in the south with 18/19°C reached on both Wednesday and Thursday.

The cold plunge of Arctic air will give us a cold weekend with still some wintry showers in the north and east and frost at night. That said, more central and western areas will only see a few showers and there will be plenty of sunshine - but the wind will have an edge.

April was a month of two halves, will a cool first half giving way to a warm second one. It was also quite a sunny month and rather dry. See the links below - the first one gives a good graphical representation.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/11 ... 1271394304

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/05/0 ... onclusion/

[RWood]

Love that graph! Elegant and informative.

[Simon Culling]

I agree, Rupert. Sometimes the Met Office excel themselves!

It has remained on the cool side, but generally dry over the Bank Holiday weekend with the showers falling over the northern half of the UK - and still some snow to higher ground. There was a very sharp frost this morning (Tues 7th May) in Scotland with a minimum of -6.2°C at Kinbrace in Sutherland.

According to the Met Office, this Bank Holiday Monday was the coldest on record since the holiday was introduced back in 1978. The highest temperature in the UK yesterday was just 13.8°C at Plymouth in the far SW and I think the old record was 14.5°C from 1982, when it fell on the 3rd of May. This is one of those rather pointless statistics as the date of this holiday can vary between the 1st and the 7th of the month! However, it was rather nippy for the time of year.

[Simon Culling]

Plenty of rain and showers over the UK in the last few days with thunderstorms on each of the last four days, plus a few funnel clouds today, Saturday 11th May. I was in Devon for much of this week and we had a real drenching on Wednesday (8th May) with shower after shower - North Wyke recorded 37mm on this day. It has also been on the cool side and we had a slight frost on Friday morning in Tiverton, even in the centre of town.

After a few more showers tomorrow, the weather will settle down into the new week as high pressure yet again begins to dominate the weather. A high will intensify as it moves slowly NE across the UK and will build further over southern Scandinavia to give us an easterly flow. There will probably be quite a lot of cloud, especially later in the week, but western areas should be sunny and warm particularly in Scotland. May often brings the best weather the Scots get in the whole year.

The final CET for April was 9.1°C (+1.2°C) and the final EWR was just 46mm, which is 75% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The anticyclone has been just off the east coast of the UK today and seems to have peaked around 1042/1043mb which is very high for the time of year - see synoptic map below for 1200GMT on Monday 13th May courtesy of the Met Office. The highest hourly pressure reading I can find was 1041.7mb at Weybourne on the north Norfolk coast and this is very close to the May record for the British Isles of 1042.4mb recorded at Cork Airport (Eire) on 12/5/2012. The high is a clear one at the moment and most of the UK will be sunny until midweek and a little warmer than average, but as the easterly picks up later in the week the sky will fill with Sc and it will cool off.

The CET for May was 9.1°C (-1.3°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 29mm up to the 11th which is 44% of the monthly average of 65mm.

[Simon Culling]

The sun shone for much of last week and it was quite warm over the UK - the best weather being in north western Scotland where the highest temperature of the year was equalled when 25.8°C was recorded at Kinlochewe on Wednesday (15th May), equally the mark set at Treknow (Cornwall) on 19th April. The weather turned abruptly overnight into Friday as a lot of cloud spread west from the Continent and with it some patchy rain + drizzle. It was quite wet at times when I was driving back from Tiverton to Hythe yesterday evening, but the rain (and low St) came in pulses with some lovely wave patterns visible in the high base Sc sheet above during the breaks in the rain. It was also a lot cooler.

The weather will be a bit showery this weekend with the chance of the odd storm as we have a rather stagnant easterly to south easterly flow over the UK with a flabby low pressure over the near Continent. High pressure should rebuild from the NW as we enter the new week, but it is a messy picture with quite a lot of cloud and average temperatures. It is likely to be mostly dry and this will not help the developing moisture deficit.