Easter weather

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TonyT
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Easter weather

Unread post by TonyT »

A placeholder thread in case things turn interesting over Easter.

Currently most model runs of most models (including the ensembles) are showing high pressures (anticyclone) over New Zealand through the Easter period = settled weather. However, there have been a few runs going strongly in the opposite direction with low pressure systems forecast to develop in the eastern Tasman on Friday and move over the country in the weekend with areas of heavy rain and strong winds. Current 12Z ECMWF run has over 100mm accumulation for parts of Canterbury for example, but previous one-off runs from various models have put 50mm+ accumulations in other parts of the country also.
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Re: Easter weather

Unread post by tornado »

funny enough weatherwatch.nz is calling the coming high a easter egg huh
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Re: Easter weather

Unread post by TonyT »

tornado wrote: Sun 14/04/2019 11:41 funny enough weatherwatch.nz is calling the coming high a easter egg huh
When you're a weather forecaster, every cloud has a chocolate lining. :crazy:
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Re: Easter weather

Unread post by tornado »

weatherwatch also thinks a cold front could come on easter weekend
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Re: Easter weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

TonyT wrote: Sun 14/04/2019 11:34 A placeholder thread in case things turn interesting over Easter.

Currently most model runs of most models (including the ensembles) are showing high pressures (anticyclone) over New Zealand through the Easter period = settled weather. However, there have been a few runs going strongly in the opposite direction with low pressure systems forecast to develop in the eastern Tasman on Friday and move over the country in the weekend with areas of heavy rain and strong winds. Current 12Z ECMWF run has over 100mm accumulation for parts of Canterbury for example, but previous one-off runs from various models have put 50mm+ accumulations in other parts of the country also.
In other words, a "Dirty high" ?
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Re: Easter weather

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The Easter special synoptics are coming together nicely :smile: Upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex on EC 00Z run today continues the trend. Cuts off cleanly from the westerly belt at 500 hPa on Easter Sunday morning. Tropical depression remnants to then add an atmospheric river above a developing surface low around Easter Monday from the North. These set ups can escalate quite quickly with the supporting interacting jets. SST’s to add some spice to the mix.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a potential for thunderstorms crossing NZ over Easter break. A nice looking cold pool moving north and these tend to be good lightning producers if the moisture is there. Looking like Otago/Canterbury get the first bit of the apple late Saturday/early Sunday.

gfs output for 12Z Saturday.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Thunderstorms/hail on Saturday for Southland to Timaru east of Alexandra on current GFS.


Looks like the fine weather holds here in Auckland until early afternoon Sunday, a good run of lovely weather lately.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Been looking at Saturday for storms. MetService don't have an outlook for it yet but they are mentioning heavy showers with hail. Looks a potential NE vs SW with cold upper air so we'll see. I'm in Dunedin for the weekend.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Thunderstorm outlook for Saturday from Metservice has a low risk of thunderstorms for Otago and Southland. Intermittent light rain now falling in Southland
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by tornado »

easter sunday and easter monday. possible thunderstorms for auckland hopfully
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Don't think there will be thunderstorms but the upper level is looking quite active compared to what it is, at the surface. :-k
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by David »

Another nice day, 7C min - 20C max.

Found this herald weather section cutout from 14 years ago while going through my old weather notes today... used to love the temperature colour coded weather maps! Not sure why I have the map for this date, the situation doesn't look particularly noteworthy.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Grey Lynn recorded 22C as did Ardmore Airport today.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Very colourful pre-sunrise sky here at the moment :-k
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like eastern Southland/southeast Otago is the hot spot for possible thunder today.

Some wet weather on the way. EU Rainfall total next 72 hours.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Richard »

So nice to get up a NW wind this morning, though its only brief. That chart showing a useful fall of rain. Planting daffodils in the sheep paddock these last few days, still bone 20cm deep.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

NZstorm wrote: Sat 20/04/2019 07:41 Looking like eastern Southland/southeast Otago is the hot spot for possible thunder today.

Some wet weather on the way. EU Rainfall total next 72 hours.
Just a tad further north would be ace.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by spwill »

The upper level cold pool comes onto the North Island Monday.

Another lovely sunny day here today, sheltered Grey Lynn showing 23C currently
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by David »

Yep, was a beautiful morning, high cloud has thickened up now. Photos from Cossey Dam, Hunua Ranges this morning. Water level running a little on the low side after the dry start to the year, quite a bit below the spillway.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

Overcast but mostly dry day out at Aramoana and in Dunedin, not looking at all like a storm.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Chris W wrote: Sat 20/04/2019 15:52 Overcast but mostly dry day out at Aramoana and in Dunedin, not looking at all like a storm.
Quite happens in situations like this. Low risk of thunderstorms, they say, but no-way. Just the usual clagg and low cloud rolls in with a freshoning of a breeze. Might be a bit of rain from the previous weather scenario off the mountains to the west, after the surface level front roll through.
As regards to storms,with the qualified scenarios that meterorologists use to forecast the weather, the physics/mathmathical equations that evolve into forecasting, do predict ideas with the use of computers to produce an analasys which do not nessessarily produce an end result, which is seen by people like me despite their academic work.
Not complaining about the professionals but there is an element that the ameteur weather observer can observe. Sorry for burbling on. As I have said before, it is only a RISK, for thunderstorms, so a likely thunderstorms event does not have to happen. :smile:
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by tornado »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Sat 20/04/2019 19:12
Chris W wrote: Sat 20/04/2019 15:52 Overcast but mostly dry day out at Aramoana and in Dunedin, not looking at all like a storm.
Quite happens in situations like this. Low risk of thunderstorms, they say, but no-way. Just the usual clagg and low cloud rolls in with a freshoning of a breeze. Might be a bit of rain from the previous weather scenario off the mountains to the west, after the surface level front roll through.
As regards to storms,with the qualified scenarios that meterorologists use to forecast the weather, the physics/mathmathical equations that evolve into forecasting, do predict ideas with the use of computers to produce an analasys which do not nessessarily produce an end result, which is seen by people like me despite their academic work.
Not complaining about the professionals but there is an element that the ameteur weather observer can observe. Sorry for burbling on. As I have said before, it is only a RISK, for thunderstorms, so a likely thunderstorms event does not have to happen. :smile:

you know once auckland had a no risk but suddenly thunderstorms ramdomly hit unexpectly.
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

With regards to my earlier postings, I see that the Blitz has recorded a few strikes off the coast of Oamaru, this evening, which I picked up on the AM radio as well. :smile:
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Re: General April Weather

Unread post by Chris W »

It did look pretty dark out to sea last night and this morning, but there was little rain in the city itself.
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