First Major Winter Storm of 2019

[mikestormchaser]

I would of been going a low to moderate risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury today
Only givin the temperatures have been so warm for time of year.
So a storm could well be on the cards along the change

I wondered, with frigid air aloft but thought maybe the surface temperatures were still too low? MS have a low risk from Chch northwards.

Surface temps would still be quite warm though givin the spring like conditions we have had. Esp this week.
Today would be a high risk day if we were in summer. But definitely warrants a low risk.
As for snow, for me it might lower to 400m on BP with showers/ hail in the city. Nothing looks exciting yet other then just your usual wintry blast and snow on the alps

[Cyclone Tracy]

2 cents worth

Latest sat snap is showing some circulation off the SI west coast, as the surface low develops. I’ve studied the latest model runs and put the projected surface low positions at 6am tomorrow morning. The American’s (both GFS and New GFS) are now following the UK with the cyclone centred between Christchurch and Kaikoura just off the coast . Both the UK and New GFS have the pressure around 978 hPa. The temp difference between sea surface and 850 hPa on the backend of the system at 6am is around 13 to 15c which is a prime ‘ocean effect’ environment. This will have more energy than your vanilla flavoured snow event.

The UK and GFS scenario will be talked about a while if it verifies. If the others verify, not so much

[snowchaser01]

2 cents worth

Latest sat snap is showing some circulation off the SI west coast, as the surface low develops. I’ve studied the latest model runs and put the projected surface low positions at 6am tomorrow morning. The American’s (both GFS and New GFS) are now following the UK with the cyclone centred between Christchurch and Kaikoura just off the coast . Both the UK and New GFS have the pressure around 978 hPa. The temp difference between sea surface and 850 hPa on the backend of the system at 6am is around 13 to 15c which is a prime ‘ocean effect’ environment. This will have more energy than your vanilla flavoured snow event.

The UK and GFS scenario will be talked about a while if it verifies. If the others verify, not so much

I'm picking a location near GFS modelling!!

[talbotmj15]

Seeing lake effect snow and how that all plays out if the ingredients for this align and the low sits 50km off the coast then theres no reason snow doesn't get to sea level along with blizzard winds. These are notorious for being very localized. Personally i cant say ive seen a full sea effect system in NZ? Ive seen warm sea enhancement in systems in NZ but not a full on one which is still a big if.

[TonyT]

2 cents worth

Latest sat snap is showing some circulation off the SI west coast, as the surface low develops. I’ve studied the latest model runs and put the projected surface low positions at 6am tomorrow morning. The American’s (both GFS and New GFS) are now following the UK with the cyclone centred between Christchurch and Kaikoura just off the coast . Both the UK and New GFS have the pressure around 978 hPa. The temp difference between sea surface and 850 hPa on the backend of the system at 6am is around 13 to 15c which is a prime ‘ocean effect’ environment. This will have more energy than your vanilla flavoured snow event.

The UK and GFS scenario will be talked about a while if it verifies. If the others verify, not so much

Its a kind of high stakes pin the tail on the donkey game, isn't it? Do I recall correctly the paper published eons ago which showed that when surface low pressure centres cross the Southern Alps they reform on the downwind side displaced to the north? I hope I have that correct. If so, then the UK modelled centre position would be least likely to my eyes based on the current likely depression centre's movement off the West Coast, and the more northern positions off Kaikoura or even closer to Wellington could come into play. No one seems to have mentioned destructive gales for Kaikoura or Wellington tomorrow, but, well, I have now.

[Growler]

Colmbo St, Chch, 1 June 2019

074197bc86ea6e753836f0bc92c07b13.jpg

[snowchaser01]

Literally is a waiting game now... observe and report as the low crosses peeps!

[Growler]

I'll be hunkered down in Rolleston all weekend, ,might go play in Springfield or higher tomorrow, have Canyonero, will travel.

[MoorfNZ]

Watching and waiting in Waddington, nr Sheffield (300m asl)...

[einzack]

I'm just hoping everything is (mostly) over by Sunday morning otherwise the Christchurch Marathon is going to be a whole new level of miserable....

[Razor]

I'm just hoping everything is (mostly) over by Sunday morning otherwise the Christchurch Marathon is going to be a whole new level of miserable....

Should be ok, but it will be brass monkeys cold and maybe the odd shower still clipping the city. At an educated guess

[BeaconHill]

2 cents worth


… based on the current likely depression centre's movement off the West Coast, and the more northern positions off Kaikoura or even closer to Wellington could come into play. No one seems to have mentioned destructive gales for Kaikoura or Wellington tomorrow, but, well, I have now.

Windy.png

Certainly looks like Saturday night into Sunday is going to be wild in Wellington. At least the ground is reasonably dry, so less likelihood of whole trees coming down on powerlines etc like happened in the last really major storm almost 6 years ago (blew down my whole front fence!).
Major news outlets don't mention much apart from "Gales were also on the cards for many, with a strong wind watch issued for Wellington.. . . . . NZTA also had strong wind warnings in place for Remutaka Hill."

[snowchaser01]

Boy o boy, there is some very heavy rain in that bad just off the west coast currently!!

[Chris W]

I'm just hoping everything is (mostly) over by Sunday morning otherwise the Christchurch Marathon is going to be a whole new level of miserable....

Should be ok, but it will be brass monkeys cold and maybe the odd shower still clipping the city. At an educated guess

I've done the half and the 10k, -3 to start both times! You warm up quickly though

[snow101]

Latest GFS has a ramp up in Moisture and the low centre further south closer to Chirstchurch area!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Overcast, cold and calm day here with 3.5mm of drizzly rain so far.
As Richard Thompson said in his song The Storm Won't Come "No leaf is stirred, no dust is blown, there is no storm so I will make my own".
Well it seems to be like that at the moment here.

[Storm Struck]

I just like to sit these events out now, the hype up to the event is a real drainer especially if you get wrapped up in belief.
But thats todays technology intermixing social media and catching the readers eye.
Once an over excited weather buff, now a casual sit back ill see it when it happens type .
I will say though you can never trust a deep low to cross without some sort of surprise.
I remember a deep low crossed the south island in April one year, snow was forecast to 300-400m we had heavy rain sleet and snow to sea level at night for about half an hour as the low moved off.
I dont know the numbers, but i know its on here somewhere the posts.

[tich]

I remember way back to 1995, when a mild late autumn came to an abrupt at the beginning of June, with a storm bringing heavy snow to low levels in North Canterbury. (though not around Chch) Vehicles were stuck in snow on the highway south of Kaikoura (Hundalees Hill), while the day before I was travelling that route in sunny weather.

[einzack]

Should be ok, but it will be brass monkeys cold and maybe the odd shower still clipping the city. At an educated guess

I've done the half and the 10k, -3 to start both times! You warm up quickly though

Been there done that a few times before as well. I don't mind the cold, its the wind and rain that'll be the pain in the ass.

[Razor]

Metservice computer very bullish now saying 50-60mm before dawn?

[snowchaser01]

Metservice computer very bullish now saying 50-60mm before dawn?

Also got it easing quite quickly during the morning. To be honest i see it hanging around a tad longer than that.

[Richard]

Moderate steady rain here now which should start getting heavier soon, dont expect snow here at 243m, not that I really want the horrible stuff.

[Chris W]

Rain approaching Chch, looks light to the north but more peppy to the south. The skies looked leaden on the way home, would be surprised if we don’t get a decent amount of rain, whether or not we see flakes.

[TonyT]

0Z ECMWF run has the low centre doing an interesting switchback tomorrow morning. At midnight its 984 over Kaikoura, at 6am its deepened to 981 and moved southeast, to lie equally southeast of Kaikoura and northeast of Banks Peninsula, then at midday its still at 981 and moved northwards to lie equally south of Cape Palliser and east of Cape Campbell, then by 6pm its east of Cape Palliser at 980ha. Tricky donkey!

[Razor]

Hokitika region must be taking a real hammering right now