General June Weather

[tornado]

cloudy day here today. a bit of light drizzly rain at 10am this morning. sunrise was lovely before clagg came.

[David]

sunrise was lovely before clagg came.

Indeed, was nice enough I paused to take a photo before getting on the ferry

[tornado]

yeah then in came clouds with a drizzly shower 10 this morning

[NZstorm]

Looks like a cloudy week ahead with showers about which at least keeps our overnight temperatures up. I don't like frosty weather.

[Richard]

Same, I'm not a fan of frosty weather either, that's why I'm quite liking the winters of the last 5-6 years thanks to this climate change.

[David]

GFS showing around 19C here Friday afternoon. My June record is 19.3C.

[Cyclone Tracy]

For those you who like to look at models, major changes are going into global production feeds on Wednesday and Thursday this week NZ time.

EC will be upgraded on the 12 June 12Z run to version 46 r1 and GFS will be replaced by FV3-GFS on 13 June 12Z. Officially the new American model will be called GFS Version 15.1 but it will be a next generation model with a state of the art dynamic core (Finite-Volume on a cubed-sphere). The resolution will seem higher with sharper edges on precipitation (especially storms) and frontal boundaries. Here are the latest NOAA accuracy figures from 11 May to June 10 up to 120 hours for the northern and southern hemisphere. It shows that FV3-GFS has now comfortably passed GFS into 3rd place just behind the UK and EC in the NH. CMC still beats its into 3rd place in the SH.

[snowchaser01]

Looks pretty chilly down here around about the 17th... not much moisture though but maybe a few showers with snow above 500m

[cbm]

Hamilton forecast for next week - computer generated.
The overnight lows will get colder than that, if models of high pressure centred on NI are correct. That is almost right on the shortest day.
Would think that even a computer generated forecast should be more accurate.

temps.JPG

[spwill]

Yes, the frosts make a return next week.

Showers for Auckland today, mainly fine here tomorrow.

[Cyclone Tracy]

2 cents worth for the rest of June.

Nothing abnormal associated with the polar vortex for the moment but GFS and EC are aligning on a strong MJO pulse entering tropics above OZ in the next 7 days. Enhanced convection in the tropics is likely to increase moisture into atmospheric rivers that stream above the Tasman. If the MJO pulse verifies, cut off lows and deluges could be on the menu in the last 10 days of the month, especially the NI and the east coast of Australia. Medium term model output might become quite volatile in the next few days.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

This could result in claggy days down here, like today and yesterday, with no wintry weather coming along to top the snow that fell over QBW.

[tornado]

auckland getting the clagg too. we under low pressure. at the moment

[snowchaser01]

2 cents worth for the rest of June.

Nothing abnormal associated with the polar vortex for the moment but GFS and EC are aligning on a strong MJO pulse entering tropics above OZ in the next 7 days. Enhanced convection in the tropics is likely to increase moisture into atmospheric rivers that stream above the Tasman. If the MJO pulse verifies, cut off lows and deluges could be on the menu in the last 10 days of the month, especially the NI and the east coast of Australia. Medium term model output might become quite volatile in the next few days.

Right on cue.... GFS plotting a rather concerning picture for central NZ for about the 20th of June.... big southerly undercutting a deep low sitting over the upper south/lower north....

[Bradley]

2 cents worth for the rest of June.

Nothing abnormal associated with the polar vortex for the moment but GFS and EC are aligning on a strong MJO pulse entering tropics above OZ in the next 7 days. Enhanced convection in the tropics is likely to increase moisture into atmospheric rivers that stream above the Tasman. If the MJO pulse verifies, cut off lows and deluges could be on the menu in the last 10 days of the month, especially the NI and the east coast of Australia. Medium term model output might become quite volatile in the next few days.

Right on cue.... GFS plotting a rather concerning picture for central NZ for about the 20th of June.... big southerly undercutting a deep low sitting over the upper south/lower north....

EC going for mid teens for that same period for Canterbury lol. Who will win out?

[snowchaser01]

Right on cue.... GFS plotting a rather concerning picture for central NZ for about the 20th of June.... big southerly undercutting a deep low sitting over the upper south/lower north....

EC going for mid teens for that same period for Canterbury lol. Who will win out?

All about low positioning once again... GFS has it central NZ EC has it off coast of fiordland.

[Razor]

Medium term model output might become quite volatile in the next few days.

You called it sir...I certainly wouldn't be making any bold predictions on social media in the next few days...

[Chris W]

Yep GFS has stayed keen on an event around the 18th-22nd, but EC is having none of it. I think by the end of weekend they should start to coalesce on the truth, maybe...

GFS does seem to suggest a cut-off/subtropical low to the north of NZ later in the current run but it's so far out at the moment.

[snowchaser01]

Medium term model output might become quite volatile in the next few days.

You called it sir...I certainly wouldn't be making any bold predictions on social media in the next few days...

I certainly won't be making any... can't speak for other pages though. Staying well back on this one until atleast Sunday.

[TonyT]

Yep GFS has stayed keen on an event around the 18th-22nd, but EC is having none of it. I think by the end of weekend they should start to coalesce on the truth, maybe...

GFS does seem to suggest a cut-off/subtropical low to the north of NZ later in the current run but it's so far out at the moment.

Ah, the truth. That mysterious and elusive element of weather forecasting!

Actually GFS and ECMWF guidance for late next week is very similar in terms of spatial pattern and evolution. Its just the north/south location of the systems which differs between the models, plus the timing. Long range data has been suggesting unsettled weeks in the third week of June and the first week of July for some time now, possibly this is going to end up as one longer unsettled period centred on the end of the month.

[David]

Showers for Auckland today, mainly fine here tomorrow.

[Orion]

Low cloud/fog has approached from the east over the past hour, now quite misty here.

[tornado]

a few showers. and fog too. those sbower cloouds looked impresssive

[David]

Heaviest fog I've seen for some time here this morning. Ferry no doubt delayed

[tornado]

fog has again delayed flights at auckland airport.