General June Weather
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: General June Weather
My 2 cents worth
Keep a close watch on subtropics in the last week of June as the MJO phase is nearby. Medium term modelling has been volatile in the last week and shorter term modelling is starting to throw up an upper cold pool of air cutting off from the westerly belt in the northern Tasman, spawning a cyclonic subtropical gyre towards the end of June.
Polar vortex structure is strong, no sign of a significant weakening at this stage. The surface temperatures on the Antarctic continent are now becoming brutal. Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.
Keep a close watch on subtropics in the last week of June as the MJO phase is nearby. Medium term modelling has been volatile in the last week and shorter term modelling is starting to throw up an upper cold pool of air cutting off from the westerly belt in the northern Tasman, spawning a cyclonic subtropical gyre towards the end of June.
Polar vortex structure is strong, no sign of a significant weakening at this stage. The surface temperatures on the Antarctic continent are now becoming brutal. Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.
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- TonyT
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Re: General June Weather
Longer term outlook is suggesting this will manifest as a large, slow moving or blocked high pressure zone over/around NZ.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 11:26 Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.
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Re: General June Weather
If just west of NZ this high would enhance any cold fronts moving through and if it was directly over New Zealand the high would mean mild days, cold frosty nights and dry weather - is that right Tony?TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 16:52Longer term outlook is suggesting this will manifest as a large, slow moving or blocked high pressure zone over/around NZ.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 11:26 Be prepared for a significant cold snap in July once the polar vortex moves into a weakening phase, propagating the polar jet more equatorward.
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Re: General June Weather
Correct. Expect an overall drier and colder next six weeks, perhaps more southwesterly in the first half (anticyclones to the west), and tending light easterly in the second half (anticyclones blocking east of the South Island).
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Re: General June Weather
Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.
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Re: General June Weather
There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 18:47 Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.
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Re: General June Weather
And I would say thats pretty likely too (first week of July is the most likely time), for the same reason - its what we expect most winters and it would be unusual if it didnt happen, especially in a period when more southerly quarter airflow is expected than usual. Its just that I'm suggesting we won't get a 2-3 week period of continual active fronts, but plenty of dry periods instead.talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 18:47 Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.
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Re: General June Weather
So true. This can tend to be a Canterbury storm centric forum at times!Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 19:12There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 18:47 Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.
- snowchaser01
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Re: General June Weather
That is because a lot of the active posters on here are from Canterbury...?
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Re: General June Weather
On a different note, GFS is showing a significant cold blast for the 22nd... only 4 days away. been in the models for a while now too
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Re: General June Weather
Given the nature of the second storm was all about snow i believe it was targeted around Canterbury. It just never arrived. I digress anyway. Good frosts brewing tonight. Could be coldest night this year in sheffield. Already well below 0.Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 19:12There was a second major winter storm though, just as the subject Tony created suggested, it just wasn’t in Canterbury but the title never suggested that it would be Canterbury?talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 18:47 Time will tell i guess. Given the predictions of a big snow a couple of weeks ago that didnt eventuate and to the overeaction point a thread was even started for a second major storm. im now abit reluctant to say the next 6 weeks will be dry. Could be wrong but from my experience i would expect a decent cold front or 2 in the next 6 weeks that sees snow to low levels. It is winter after all.
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Re: General June Weather
the second storm was actually the Auckland storm on Wednesday 5 june. and the northland tornado
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Re: General June Weather
Down to minus 2 here at the moment so it will be interesting to see what it be at dawn when I go out collect the newspaper. Apart from this WE, it looks quite anticyclonic to finish off this month of June, so more frosts are likely?talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Tue 18/06/2019 22:08 Could be coldest night this year in sheffield. Already well below 0.
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Re: General June Weather
If I was a ski field operator in Canterbury I would be starting to get nervous
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Re: General June Weather
I am starting to see a prolonged and very frosty period from about next Tuesday through to the weekend for the south island, after another cold front clears out on Monday/early Tuesday a pool of cold air will be left over the top of us to which a very large and slow moving high pressure will slowly drift east over from Australia. Going by this mornings temperatures of -3C at the airport I can easily see 3 or 4 mornings in a row next week of around -4C or -5C...
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Re: General June Weather
Was barely a frost at all in Halswell, last the car out last night and only the barest amount of ice on the windscreen, no scraping required.Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 19/06/2019 10:44 I am starting to see a prolonged and very frosty period from about next Tuesday through to the weekend for the south island, after another cold front clears out on Monday/early Tuesday a pool of cold air will be left over the top of us to which a very large and slow moving high pressure will slowly drift east over from Australia. Going by this mornings temperatures of -3C at the airport I can easily see 3 or 4 mornings in a row next week of around -4C or -5C...
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Re: General June Weather
Yes, I would be too, not looking like any reasonable snow fall for the rest of June. What snow was on the higher mountains inland from here a few weeks ago has largely gone.
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Re: General June Weather
Nice in Lyall Bay, Wellington.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: General June Weather
Interesting linear cloud formation this morning. Can confirm it's not fog, it's stratus. Pleased to be West enough to be in the sun for now.
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Re: General June Weather
Thin high cloud thickening aloft here, which at +1.3°C isn't such a cheery prospect.
Lawn still white.
Lawn still white.
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Re: General June Weather
A soft Winter here so far. Possibly some heavy showers/hail in the mix over the north of the country Sunday, upper levels are showing cold on Sunday.
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Re: General June Weather
What was the hazy mist that came through the Waikato today through the middle of the day.
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Re: General June Weather
High cloud over South Island after frosty start = very cold day. Temps in low single figures in some inalnd areas of SI today. Not that cold in Chch, but still a cold day.