Second major winter storm of 2019 - June 4-6

[TonyT]

More snow and heavy rain on the way?

I suspect this thread will be needed once we all calm down after the Queens Birthday weekend event.

[Chris W]

Yes, that one looks very interesting depending on the interaction of the aussie low and extremely cold air to the south.

[Razor]

Yes as mentioned elsewhere I've felt that's really one to watch. Remember June 2012?

[snowchaser01]

What a start to winter 2019... most active start I can remember...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

More snow and heavy rain on the way?

I suspect this thread will be needed once we all calm down after the Queens Birthday weekend event.

Calm down?
Haven't got excited yet?

[Richard]

Far out, what a start to a new thread, this comes even before we have got over the excitement of the QB event.

But yes, Im with Razor, the second of the two is looking like having the most impact as its feeding off warm sea waters closer to the NSW coast.

[TonyT]

Far out, what a start to a new thread, this comes even before we have got over the excitement of the QB event.

But yes, Im with Razor, the second of the two is looking like having the most impact as its feeding off warm sea waters closer to the NSW coast.

I'm not sure the jets are going to align to give it some oomph when its moving over us. Might be a weakening system when it arrives, might not. Compared to morrow's system there is more potential in this next one to give us a big dump of rain/snow, but also a greater risk that it might fizzle.

[Richard]

Yes, more likely to have a higher snow level due to a more of a easterly inflow.

[Razor]

Mt Hutt will be well set up for opening weekend in 7 days time

[Bradley]

To say this mornings EC mode run is staggering is an understatement, 60cm of snow forecast for places like Sheffield and Methven next wednesday!!!

[TonyT]

Mt Hutt will be well set up for opening weekend in 7 days time

Yes, funny thing was about 3 weeks ago, before this current storm was over the edge of the day to day models, I was contacted by someone from the ski industry who was very worried that the dry and mild May was going to lead to a very poor winter season, and I told them that the longer range data showed good potential for significant alpine snow in the first week or two of June, and I dont think he really believed me.

[Richard]

And to arrive on the first day of winter too.

Rain turning to snow here now, large flakes too.

[Bradley]

MetService onto next Wednesday’s system nice and early in their severe weather outlook, maybe they have learnt from this system or is next weeks system been more consistent in the models perhaps then this one?

[Chris W]

The UKMO output earlier was suggesting the low would pass by much further north, but the GFS and EC both have it crossing the South Island. UKMO has moved it further south on the latest run.

[Cyclone Tracy]

My 2 cents worth.

We are currently under the influence of a significant ‘meridional flow’ which still has NZ in the target zone next week on the latest GFS Long wave chart. Historically, this next set up has more in common with the June 2006 event than the latest cyclone. The Tasman low, polar trough and jets are in similar locations to June 2006 based on projections. The BoM think so as well …..at the moment

[Bradley]

Latest run of EC still consistently going for 30cm down to 300m for mid Canterbury next Wednesday and 50cm+ for areas above 400m. Remarkable consistently this far out when you think those low pressure systems can be notoriously hard to predict...

[Razor]

Latest run of EC still consistently going for 30cm down to 300m for mid Canterbury next Wednesday and 50cm+ for areas above 400m. Remarkable consistently this far out when you think those low pressure systems can be notoriously hard to predict...

And right on cue latest GFS drags the system further north. We need an "ensemble monitor" lol

[Bradley]

Latest run of EC still consistently going for 30cm down to 300m for mid Canterbury next Wednesday and 50cm+ for areas above 400m. Remarkable consistently this far out when you think those low pressure systems can be notoriously hard to predict...

And right on cue latest GFS drags the system further north. We need an "ensemble monitor" lol

EC has also pulled the plug with the low now crossing over the north island

[talbotmj15]

Based on the latest from all the main models this thread may have been started in haste? Is there any thoughts this may come back as the latest GFS run has the low even further north. MS have backed off along with some others. CWU are going all out?

[Razor]

Based on the latest from all the main models this thread may have been started in haste? Is there any thoughts this may come back as the latest GFS run has the low even further north. MS have backed off along with some others. CWU are going all out?

Looks that way if you are South Island based. Still a decent event for the North Island though. No worry down here, we need a good dryout now anyway

[Chris W]

MetService have backed away in their Outlook reflecting the northward shift. It could change, but for now it looks like we escape a repeat of this weekend. Looks a cold change on Tuesday though.

[NZstorm]

The cold system showing up late Thursday into Friday has snow potential for inland Southland/Otago. This could be useful for the Otago ski fields, which need the snow.

Post has been edited

[snowchaser01]

GFS has a southward trend for this low again... very similar trend to last weeks low. It's a long shot but i have a feeling this low might be a waimak north event...

[Cyclone Tracy]

Strong alignment from all the main control models that this surface low will deepen and move into the NI on Wednesday with pressure in the low to mid 980's hPa.

Upper low is now over NSW with the surface low commencing to circulate off the NSW coast.

[NZstorm]

Simulated radar from the EU model for midday Wednesday. Precip onto upper South Island for sure.