Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Tornado Tim
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Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
This month is going to be an interesting month for sure.
Esp the first half of this month, and this upcoming subtropic interaction coming in Wednesday.
Has a look at the 500 hpa Temp prognostics on the ECMWF model, the output is quite remarkable.
Typical Summer time upper air temps over most of the North Island(-10 C to -14), then mid winter ones coming into the South Island with a incoming polar shortwave (-30 C).
Setup's like this usually result in quite squally storms with very strong straight line winds on the leading edge of the cold change, so something to keep an eye out on later this week.
Esp the first half of this month, and this upcoming subtropic interaction coming in Wednesday.
Has a look at the 500 hpa Temp prognostics on the ECMWF model, the output is quite remarkable.
Typical Summer time upper air temps over most of the North Island(-10 C to -14), then mid winter ones coming into the South Island with a incoming polar shortwave (-30 C).
Setup's like this usually result in quite squally storms with very strong straight line winds on the leading edge of the cold change, so something to keep an eye out on later this week.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
There was a few of those temperature differential cold fronts move through Canterbury this summer, quite spectacular and almost lost the trampoline over the neighbours fence in one of them!
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
EC's latest 18Z upgrading with more widespread heavy rainfall across the NI. Atmospheric river is running at 30 to 40mm on Thursday into Friday towards Coromandel and BOP. This map only goes out to Friday morning but you get the picture.
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- David
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
GFS showing almost no rainfall here for the next 7 days. EC showing around 40mm. Hard to tell how much we'll get...
- NZstorm
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
All models agree on a deluge over the Bay of Plenty ranges, upto 250mm there. There are variations in rainfall amounts elsewhere but I think its a safe bet to say most parts of the North Island will catch some heavy rain tomorrow. Looks like some lightning possible upper Northland. And snow levels dropping over the Ruapehu region later tomorrow.
- Richard
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Just a light skiff of snow for the SI by the looks of it.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
GFS, EC and ACCESS-G all showing around 50mm for Auckland tomorrow. Would make it potentially the wettest day of the year so far.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Just seen the BOP radar has gone offline for "urgent maintenance". Bad timing! Hopefully back before tomorrow?
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
met service has a low risk for thunder in upper north island tomorrow but they could change it to moderate tonight.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
MS now have the severe weather watch in place associated with the rainfall, snow and wind. https://www.metservice.com/warnings/sev ... ther-watch
Juicy atmospheric river now developing. It all comes down to where the convergence zone amplifies. Probably 50 to 80mm difference either side of the 100km wide subtropical waterslide during tomorrow. Looking forward to reviewing the 00Z runs this evening.
Juicy atmospheric river now developing. It all comes down to where the convergence zone amplifies. Probably 50 to 80mm difference either side of the 100km wide subtropical waterslide during tomorrow. Looking forward to reviewing the 00Z runs this evening.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
There is going to be some decent flash flooding around Auckland if that UKMet 00Z scenario plays out tomorrow afternoon. Big squeeze zone dropping 80mm to 100mm in a short period of time.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
probably not but much needed rain to fill up the reservoirs that's needed in the auckland area.
JohnGaul
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
true.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 03/07/2019 22:16probably not but much needed rain to fill up the reservoirs that's needed in the auckland area.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
On 11mm so far, Metservice expecting another 60-80mm after 9am
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
12mm already here.
Plenty if moisture appearing in the mid levels NW of Auckland above the convergence line at the moment.
Plenty if moisture appearing in the mid levels NW of Auckland above the convergence line at the moment.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
if that heavy rain does fall it will stop the water crisis thats starting to happen
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Bloody annoying that the BOP radar isn’t working.
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- David
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Was 16C all night. Unusually high for July
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Very warm and humid. We are almost in the clouds. Cloud base about 20m? And rain. Very warm and humid too. Not like it’s a cold cloud base. This tells me conditions are ripe for a downpour.David wrote:Was 16C all night. Unusually high for July
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
S here now, gusting 50kms at the airport. A good 2 hours ahead of when the models had it arriving.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
Also noticed this, the direction change was earlier than I expected. Fairly solid rain here currently, up to 20mm since midnight.
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Re: Subtropic Interaction then Cold Change - 1st to 5th July
It was 16 degrees Celsius. this morning and now its gone down to 13 degrees Celsius. yeah the rain is needed. hopefully its enough to stop the water crisis that they reckon is about to happen
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