General August Weather

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Cyclone Tracy
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Re: General August Weather

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David wrote: Fri 16/08/2019 07:32 Anyone in Auckland remember the last time we had a dry day!? Up to 18 consecutive days with precip recorded here. Last few days not as bad but still the odd brief light shower around. And looks set to get wetter again from tomorrow...
Yes, was just noticing that yesterday. Today's my 17th consecutive with 101mm the running total.
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Re: General August Weather

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EC at the end of July hinted at stratospheric warming for mid August. So thought I would take a quick look to see what is going on with actual observed data. Mid latitude to Polar cap warming has developed as of 12 Aug through the stratosphere below Africa and OZ .

Then GFS is displaying a lower stratospheric vortex displacement early next week which seem to be propagating to the upper stratosphere within the vortex if it verifies.

Meanwhile, Antarctica has dropped to around -3c below normal and tropical easterlies have increased in the Pacific. Something is brewing for September in the southern Hemisphere :smile:
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Re: General August Weather

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 16/08/2019 11:07 EC at the end of July hinted at stratospheric warming for mid August. So thought I would take a quick look to see what is going on with actual observed data. Mid latitude to Polar cap warming has developed as of 12 Aug through the stratosphere below Africa and OZ .

Then GFS is displaying a lower stratospheric vortex displacement early next week which seem to be propagating to the upper stratosphere within the vortex if it verifies.

Meanwhile, Antarctica has dropped to around -3c below normal and tropical easterlies have increased in the Pacific. Something is brewing for September in the southern Hemisphere :smile:
I'm guessing a very active end to August and September is what Tony will be alluding to in his next short term outlook...
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Re: General August Weather

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Great some normal volitle spring weather brewing
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Re: General August Weather

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Richard wrote: Fri 16/08/2019 12:12 Great some normal volitle spring weather brewing
You can say that again, this is an abstract from Tony's latest 6 week outlook put on Facebook this afternoon:

This week’s data is probably the stormiest I have seen in the last 18 months or so. Pressures are forecast to be lower than usual over the Southern Ocean, and often over New Zealand as well, with temperatures predominantly colder than normal. Westerly airflows when they occur will be strong, and generally this is looking like a stormy couple of months ahead, with frequent rainfalls, cold outbreaks, and windier than normal weather for the whole country.
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Re: General August Weather

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Bradley wrote: Fri 16/08/2019 14:36
Richard wrote: Fri 16/08/2019 12:12 Great some normal volitle spring weather brewing
You can say that again, this is an abstract from Tony's latest 6 week outlook put on Facebook this afternoon:

This week’s data is probably the stormiest I have seen in the last 18 months or so. Pressures are forecast to be lower than usual over the Southern Ocean, and often over New Zealand as well, with temperatures predominantly colder than normal. Westerly airflows when they occur will be strong, and generally this is looking like a stormy couple of months ahead, with frequent rainfalls, cold outbreaks, and windier than normal weather for the whole country.
I won't go so far as to say this WILL be the stormiest period in quite a few years, but it has the potential to be, and it won't surprise me if someone somewhere makes that comment in a month or two's time. Read the FB post, like, share, if you know people who value this information encourage them to subscribe - unlike some others, I dont get paid by the government to do this work.
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Re: General August Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Thanks for sharing Tony, appreciate you doing that when you don't have to be in that space. I trust all here will treat with due respect accordingly
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Re: General August Weather

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Looking interesting late next week, if the models aren’t over-egging it.

Strong winds through Greta Valley late this afternoon heading south.
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Re: General August Weather

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Yes, because of Global change and Climate warming, I'm predicting as president and founder of the NZ Thunderstorm Society, a very volatile spring with thunderstorms on each southerly change we get. :yum: 0_o
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Re: General August Weather

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Lightning so close it was like a cannon blast!
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Re: General August Weather

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David wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 19:27 Lightning so close it was like a cannon blast!
yeah im here in farm cove. it just shock my house. the thunder gave me a fright. its a dying thunder cell.
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Re: General August Weather

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Distant thunder heard from here, so must of been that same clap.
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Re: General August Weather

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Cyclone Tracy wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 19:33 Distant thunder heard from here, so must of been that same clap.
it gave me a fright. shock the house. set off car alarms.
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Re: General August Weather

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that was the loudest thunder i heard in the past week
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Re: General August Weather

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metservice only added low risk at 5:30pm. they could of done a better job
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Re: General August Weather

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tornado wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 19:37 that was the loudest thunder i heard in the past week
Loudest I heard for quite some time, felt the vibrations through the ground. Seems to have been a single strike event
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Re: General August Weather

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David wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 19:39
tornado wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 19:37 that was the loudest thunder i heard in the past week
Loudest I heard for quite some time, felt the vibrations through the ground. Seems to have been a single strike event
true. but it shoock my house and set off car alarms. at least the single stroke was very close to us. but scary. I reackon met service could of done a better job though. theres been alot of thunder in the past few weeks so storm activity has woken up.
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Re: General August Weather

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The strike was near coromandel. it could of been a cg. dam that was loud tho
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Re: General August Weather

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I reckon that’s what I saw driving home (mentioned in other thread). A single bolt of lightning right across the sky. Was amazing.
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Re: General August Weather

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Cherie wrote: Sat 17/08/2019 20:21 I reckon that’s what I saw driving home (mentioned in other thread). A single bolt of lightning right across the sky. Was amazing.
yeah i thought all the lightning had died out but nope that band of rain decided to do one more. a big one as well with loud thunder.🌩🌩🌩🌩
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Re: General August Weather

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it was overcast most of the day so i wanna know what caused that thunder. looks like more tonight
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Re: General August Weather

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there has been around 4-5 tornadoes hitting new zealands north island this past week i cant believe it
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Re: General August Weather

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Feels like the coldest day of the winter. Only 9C, overcast with patchy very light rain
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Re: General August Weather

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David wrote: Sun 18/08/2019 12:12 Feels like the coldest day of the winter. Only 9C, overcast with patchy very light rain
yeah its been a weried weekend. yesterday when i didnt think there was gonna be lightning. there was lightning. and today its feeling very cold. I think we in for a cold night tonight
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Re: General August Weather

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Definitely the coldest day of the year for Auckland today with max 11C at the airport.

Some thunderstorms possible Wednesday to Friday timeframe western and northern NZ due upper level polar system. Isolated tornadoes. Something to keep an eye on.
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