NZ Weather Forum

Not every year is the same when it comes to the transition from winter to spring, even within a small region of North Canterbury I've noticed some years my area starts to show signs of spring earlier than areas south of here, today heading down to CHCH which I normally do weekly I noticed our Weeping Willows have a hint of green here which the same variety isn't showing of down on the plains, you would think being inland springs would be later to arrive, but no, being inland away from the influence of the cold sea temps plus being influenced over the last few days by westerly winds seem to the cause. But not every year is like this, some years the trees come out about the same time, but never where bud burst is later here.

GraemeWi wrote: ↑Fri 09/08/2019 15:36 Got the edge of a convergence zone or similar here in Albany, have just watched a fc struggling to form

https://youtu.be/HXynp-3dMxc

wow. i wonder what causes funnels and tornadoes to always form there

Richard wrote:Not every year is the same when it comes to the transition from winter to spring, even within a small region of North Canterbury I've noticed some years my area starts to show signs of spring earlier than areas south of here, today heading down to CHCH which I normally do weekly I noticed our Weeping Willows have a hint of green here which the same variety isn't showing of down on the plains, you would think being inland springs would be later to arrive, but no, being inland away from the influence of the cold sea temps plus being influenced over the last few days by westerly winds seem to the cause. But not every year is like this, some years the trees come out about the same time, but never where bud burst is later here.

I do find it amazing that my in-laws in taihape (cold) seem to have their willows have green on them a good couple weeks before any around here in Waikato. I can never understand that one.


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with the aair being unstable in auckland over the next few days we hopefully may get a thunderstorm or two

The jet streak looks like it will be dipping over Northland in the early afternoon as the occluded front arrives. Might be a rumble or 2 today for the Upper NI.

The cyclonic Tasman gyre near Tasmania matured overnight, shedding multiple vortexes, sending out a Von Karman vortex street towards the SI

In regards to the willows-

Perhaps it is related to the trees needing a certain amount hours below a temperature before bud break can happen. Hence the trees in colder climates reach this sooner than the trees in the warmer climates.

jamie wrote: ↑Fri 09/08/2019 20:09 I do find it amazing that my in-laws in taihape (cold) seem to have their willows have green on them a good couple weeks before any around here in Waikato. I can never understand that one.

I'm sure now that the likes of the Weeping willow are influenced by weather and not daylight hours, it shows in that every year is different, the last two years the WW have been early but last year they all budded up the same time here and the Rangiora/CHCH areas

Ash wrote: ↑Sat 10/08/2019 10:20 In regards to the willows-

Perhaps it is related to the trees needing a certain amount hours below a temperature before bud break can happen. Hence the trees in colder climates reach this sooner than the trees in the warmer climates.

opps me not read you post properly

In the case of the Willows around here its a run of warmer nights than have triggered bud burst earlier

yesterday was weried it was sunny at first then cloudy. the temperature got up to 18 degree celcius. then when the storm came the temp went down to 13.

Delayed flying up to Auckland, shame I'll miss the severe TS going over right now!

Chris W wrote: ↑Sun 11/08/2019 20:28 Delayed flying up to Auckland, shame I'll miss the severe TS going over right now!

thats the reason why you delayed. the storm

GFS going all out for an intense cold outbreak for Saturday with 850hpa temps of -8C right up to north Canterbury, EC nowhere near as keen with 850hpa temps only around the -3C mark - I personally think GFS is overcooking the event which it seems to be doing alot of with events more then 3 days out...

Metservice now has this system on Saturday on their radar in their severe weather outlook:

Behind the front, much colder air should spread up eastern parts of the South Island during Saturday, while moist air aloft continues to stream down from the northwest. This could bring snow to quite low levels, and at this stage there is low confidence of significant widespread snowfall meeting warning criteria from Southland to Canterbury.

One to watch, good idea from MS to get ahead of it just in case GFS is right.

Looks like an inland event again, not much moisture in the ChCh hood?

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 14/08/2019 09:10 Looks like an inland event again, not much moisture in the ChCh hood?

Not much moisture over night Saturday/Sunday but golly the 850hpa temps EC is putting out in this mornings model run is impressive with -8C for a time over Canterbury on Sunday morning!

This is getting interesting from Metservice on their severe weather outlook...

Behind the front, much colder air should spread up eastern parts of the South Island during Saturday, while moist air aloft continues to stream down from the northwest. This could bring snow to quite low levels, and at this stage there is low confidence of significant widespread snowfall meeting warning criteria from Southland to Marlborough, and late Saturday in Wairarapa too.

7-10 day oscillation in tropical Pacific ocean temperatures at the surface can be seen in the daily ENSO 3.4 index. Might be tied to tropical (easterly) instability waves.

Everything seems quite neutral but some American agencies are starting to get all excited with the ocean indicator of an early summer La Nina.

I saw NIWA addressing this today too...

GFS showing the temperature falling to 9C by 9am Sunday in Auckland and remaining below 10 for the remainder of the day with a little precip. Pretty cold day by our standards

Razor wrote: ↑Thu 15/08/2019 15:14 Niwa.jpgI saw NIWA addressing this today too...

I wrote extensively on this and the outlook for summer in the material sent to clients this week. I will post on the Blue Skies FB page this weekend as its got some pretty major stuff in it.

Its not really a typical Modoki (if such a thing exists), as it doesnt have the characteristic cooler SSTs in the far western Pacific. I'd pick we are heading towards a weak Nina for the summer.

Beautiful inversion layer over Kaikõura tonight, after a beautiful and quite warm-feeling day. Very calm, no real wind except an occasional very light breeze.

Anyone in Auckland remember the last time we had a dry day!? Up to 18 consecutive days with precip recorded here. Last few days not as bad but still the odd brief light shower around. And looks set to get wetter again from tomorrow...

David wrote: ↑Fri 16/08/2019 07:32 Anyone in Auckland remember the last time we had a dry day!? Up to 18 consecutive days with precip recorded here. Last few days not as bad but still the odd brief light shower around. And looks set to get wetter again from tomorrow...

its been very wet this month alright.