A factor that perhaps many people aren’t considering that may well help in the chances of this trough producing more moisture then the models are currently predicting is the warmer then normal SST’s around NZ at the moment. This warmed up the last cold snap that came through which raised the snow level but conversely it also brought more precipitation then forecast - perhaps this could be the difference between 0mm on Sunday and Monday for Christchurch and 5-10mm...TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:17Tomorrow is probably the most difficult day to predict that I have experienced in the last, dont know how many years. Better to just stay quiet and let others make fools of themselves I think!snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 17:23 Tony, you've been quiet the last few days... haha
what are your thoughts currently?
Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
SW change set to arrive at midnight tonight. Id say possible heavy showers and hail. Maybe a flash out east/sea.
I to sit on the fence with tomorrow..keeping watch on that developing low to the north of chch. But hey.. what do i know about trying to call snow
Not really my strongest area.
But here's hoping!!
I to sit on the fence with tomorrow..keeping watch on that developing low to the north of chch. But hey.. what do i know about trying to call snow
Not really my strongest area.
But here's hoping!!
Mike
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
If there is any it wont be much. I just feel like there is one more twist in what this is going to deliver....
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Probably wake up to another cold fine day here in Geraldine with this system missing the area.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
A dairy farmer friend of mine (another retired Morris dancer) from Methven reported some "Thundersnow" many years ago when it was snowing heavily around his farm near Methven.
A great white flash, he told me, in the cloud and it looked fantastic with the cloud lit up with the snow falling.
He was surprised as he didn't expect such a thing to happen.
I told him it was probably a result of a pocket of warm air in in the freezing cold cold air moving northward from the south.
JohnGaul
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Flat broke mate.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:22Haha.. where is the fun in that you must have a 2 cents worth?
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
I guess time will tell, but you're right that it is proving difficult to predict.TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 19:43Flat broke mate.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 18:22
Haha.. where is the fun in that you must have a 2 cents worth?
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
quick 2 cents worth for Southland. Current water vapour image and position of the 520 thickness line indicates to me it will be sleeting and snowing in Invercargill around midnight.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
The GLM sensor aboard the new GOES-17 picking up a bit of lightning tonight over Westland with the cold front:
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Very sporadic there, Will.Willoughby wrote: ↑Sat 03/08/2019 21:22 The GLM sensor aboard the new GOES-17 picking up a bit of lightning tonight over Westland with the cold front:
61208170(1).gif
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
I had a look at Muriwai for the high swells - apparently 5m at 10am this morning. I've seen the swells bigger on previous events. Photogenic between the showers!
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Snowing to 200 metres here, only lightly at this stage though.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Sleety showers now Temp 3.1C.11.4 mm out of front this arvo
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Thunder and lightning, with very heavy rain in Westport currently!! Its really come through with a hiss and a roar here in the last 10mins.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Nothing to see here in our hood, just a lovely sunny and relatively mild winter's day for outdoors fun. More of the same coming tomorrow
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Just had a period of heavy snow here, about 4cm's on the ground.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
The SST have been above normal for a long time but now its gone below over at least half the Tasman
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Some sporadic lightning through Foveaux Straight overnight. A strike on Bluff at 5.56am.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
A little bit of sporadic lightning on the front out to west of North Island this morning. The surface dewpoint in Auckland is 11C which is just moist enough for a thunder risk here this morning.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
i hope so. metservice has changed from low risk to moderate. from auckland. i hope if there is thunder in auckland today. hopefully it will be more widespread then the storms on wednesday night
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Pretty wet morning here, 9mm already with heavy showers.
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Hmm, GFS this morning is indicating the little trough to cross quite a lot further south... while EC still has it way north. I know it's unusual to look at models during an event but it's a large change. I have to say, the radar supports what GFS is saying, and it looks like moisture may move through chch briefly mid afternoon...
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Re: Very cold polar outbreak August 3rd-5th
Just received this photo of the snow from family in Gore, looking out to the Hokonui Hills.
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