Hurricane Dorian

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Cyclone Tracy
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Hurricane Dorian

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Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Razor »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:10 Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Razor wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:23
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Wed 28/08/2019 15:10 Currently Tropical storm Dorian is nearing Puerto Rico. Almost all models now have Dorian becoming a hurricane south east of Florida this weekend. Intensity of projections are ranging from cat 1 to cat 4 (U.S scale) with a direct hit on Florida becoming likely on Monday NZT. More to come …
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Forecasts for Dorian are ramping up all the time. NOAA now going for 100kt+ by Sunday/Monday as it nears the east Florida coast.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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American hurricane model HWRF simulating Dorian to be a 'donut of destruction' coming into Florida's east coast Sunday U.S time (Monday morning NZT). HWRF 12z has produced an annular tropical cyclone with pressure in the 930's, cat 4 U.S scale.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Hurricane Dorian still expected to be a Cat 4 storm when it hits the Florida coast. Yesterday, there was more of a recurve north in the predicted tracks, but this is still possible. Lots of good maps and charts on this recent tweet:

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/1167151318986891269
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Category 6 blog on Weather Underground is always a good read during hurricane events https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Categ ... t-4-Sunday
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The good old ridge throwing a lot of uncertainty on models over the last 36 hours. In times of uncertainty I always like have a close look at the master of picking the strength of the ridge, the UKMO ensemble :smile:

One interesting part of the UK suite is the main model tracking towards Miami and into the gulf. Still early days though, so lots of uncertainty remains.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Sustained winds up to 150mph now, not far off category 5
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Latest Hurricane Hunter flight mission got a 941 hPa, around 130 knots, 7 knots off cat 5.

Next 24 hours now becomes fascinating on the models. Americans on the east coast know all too well about the unpredictable left and right turns. At the moment Florida escapes a demolition job according to majority of the models but some models are still eyeing off Miami. Icon for 2 runs in a row weakens the block for a northern Miami onslaught.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Next flight mission has just scored a 148 knot near surface winds on either side of the eyewall with pressure around 936 hPa. It seems Dorian has unofficially made the top shelf and is a cat 5. Next National Hurricane center update soon will be interesting.

American hurricane models like the German model Icon, are taking Dorian into Florida. Battle of the models well and truly underway.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Very even structure within the eyewall on the latest recon relating to wind speeds. Dorian is starting to move up a gear. Low shear and simmering waters below. Turning into an absolute beast.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Bahamas will get smashed, looks like Florida escapes.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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NZstorm wrote: Sun 01/09/2019 19:18 Bahamas will get smashed, looks like Florida escapes.
Yep for sure, Bahamas will be devastated. They probably realised it when i-cyclone arrived yesterday and booked into a hotel in Treasure Cay :smile:

It's the multi billion dollar question, Florida …..
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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As at 11am EST (or 3pm GMT) on 1st September, Hurricane Dorien is rated as a Category 5 hurricane with estimated mean wind speeds of 155kts (180mph). It is approaching the Abaco Islands (of the Bahamas) at this time.

This is not good news for northern parts of the Bahamas. The re-curvature north still persists and it may not now make landfall in Florida. Not an easy one for the forecasters.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Yes, a very strong cat 5 now. Latest fly over mission is bringing in 909 hPa and 160 knots winds. 20 knots above the cat 5 threshold. Becoming one the great Atlantic canes. Only the American hurricane model HWRF picked up this scale of this intensification a few days ago.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Some tragic video appearing, some of the stuff in the eye shows cars thrown and messed up like an EF4 tornado had got them.
https://twitter.com/p0sitivechange/stat ... 673085441?
Note NWS warning people not to go out in the eye, which is where these videos and photo's are being taken. Round 2 from a different direction is now game on :(
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Sustained winds of 185mph (295km/h) estimated at landfall in the Bahamas. With gusts of 220mph (350km/h)!

https://t.co/O9hrotTTbS
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Dorian in the last 9 hours has just produced a cycle of 'rapid intensification' or RI. What is so astonishing is that the base started at winds of 130 knots..... now 160 knots :crazy:

There are now signs of a eyewall replacement cycle underway on radar.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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The 'stadium effect' from the cockpit. Taken by Garret Black, Hurricane Hunter over the Bahamas .
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Latest HWRF 18Z run again defies the global models and slams a cat 4 into central Florida. It seems HWFR has Dorian building a ridge and it's own environment, which takes the steering towards Florida.

Reviewing the GEFS, EC and UK ensembles 12Z runs, only around 20 and of 106 models has a Florida landfall. NHC has a nightmare forecasting scenario where the best performed model so far is taking a different path to the main global models....for the moment.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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U.S city lights and the 2nd most powerful recorded cane to ever exist in the Atlantic knocking on the door.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

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Dorian is still riding the Grand Bahama. Most models had the turn already starting. Currently travelling west at 6.42pm NZT
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Unread post by Simon Culling »

This blog by Levi Cowan is worth following. Some good vide discussions posted usually at least once a day. Worth watching.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... /#comments
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