UK Weather - Autumn 2019

[Simon Culling]

September (and the Autumn season) has begun on a cool note in the UK with winds from a more westerly direction bringing us maritime air. Not much rain here in the south, but the NW has again seen the bulk of any going. The next few days will see a number of fronts cross the country with progressively cooler air behind them maintaining this cool theme. There will be some rain and/or showers, but the south will be predominantly dry.

It will be interesting to see what effect Hurricane Dorian has on the UK weather after it transitions to an extratropical cyclone early next week and moves across the Atlantic. At the moment the most likely path is well to the north of the UK which will help any high pressure ridging to our south and push some warmer air north over the UK.

[Simon Culling]

The cool and showery weather has continued here in the UK, but nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year. The UK maximum temperature on the 5th Sept was just 19.4°C at St James Park and this is the first maximum of <20°C since the 13th of June.

I am in Devon at the moment and it has been a showery few days here with a blustery wind at times, but not particularly cold, although the mercury did drop to 8°C this morning (Sat 7th Sept). The cool theme looks likely to persist over the next few days with a cold night tonight as the NW-N wind drops out - we could see a touch of frost in more northern parts. The final tracks of Hurricane Dorian and TS Gabrielle stills seems to be well north of the UK, but there is quite a spread on the models. It will be interesting to see how this pans out later next week.

The CET for September was 14.5°C (-0.2°C) up to the 5th and the EWR was 7mm up to the 4th, which is 9% of the monthly average of 79mm.

[Simon Culling]

There was quite a widespread ground frost on Sunday (8th Sept) morning with a local air frost in prone spots. The lowest air temperatures I can find are:

-1.6°C at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
-0.9°C at Balmoral
-0.7°C at Cromdale (Speyside) + St Harmon (Powys, Wales)
-0.5°C at RAF Benson (Oxon)

Grass temperatures of as low as -4°C were recorded at both Aboyne + RAF Benson. Frost is not rare in the UK in September especially in the Scottish Glens, but it is not a common occurrence in more southern parts this early in the month.

Today (Monday) is cloudy over the UK with areas of rain and showers and rather cool - I am in Hythe today and we are looking at a max of no higher than about 16°C/17°C at best - if we get any sunshine. As the two ex-tropical systems track NE to the north of the UK later this week, ridging from the south west will strengthen and it will dry out again and warm up.

[Simon Culling]

The remnants of Dorian (now a normal temperate latitude depression) moved well to the north of the UK and only brought wind and rain to NW Scotland. The rest of the UK has been generally cloudy with patchy rain over the last few days, but as the remnants of TS Gabrielle push NE over the north of the UK overnight and into Thursday we will see another feed of warm and muggy air from the SW which will lift temperatures considerably. As a high pressure follows from the Azores and settles over the near continent, much of the UK will have warm and sunny weather to end the week and through the weekend - we could see 27°C reached in the SE.

The tabloid press has been full of stories about a very cold winter to come for the UK and the return of 'the beast from the east'. However, they have got hold of the wrong end of the stick (as usual) and based these scare stories on the work linked below - a legitimate scientific study that suggest a greater likelihood of a negative NAO this winter and an increased chance (and no more than this) of a lower CET for Jan-Feb 2020 than the average. It makes you wonder who writes these stories in this section of the press.

http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/S ... 019%29.pdf

[Simon Culling]

High pressure continues to dominate the weather in the south as low pressure systems pass to the north of Scotland giving them wind and rain - this is not an unusual set-up for the UK. It has also continued to be mild by day, but in the clearer skies of the south, we have seen some cooler nights with the first of the autumnal mists and fogs. The dominance of high pressure in the south will continue for much of the coming week as the Azores high continues to ridge NE over the southern half of the UK. As the ridge will be centred a bit further west from Monday, the resulting NW wind will mean slightly cooler air for all, but it will still be pleasantly warm by day. There are some hints in the models of a change next weekend with the jet stream moving further south and bringing the rain and wind with it, but that is a long way off.

The CET for September was 14.2°C (-0.1°C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 20mm also up to the 13th, which is 26% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

High pressure continues to dominate the weather for the southern half of the UK with frontal systems brushing past Scotland and keeping them cloudy and cool with occasional rain. At 0600GMT today (Weds 18th Sept) a high (1030mb) was centred over the Irish Sea giving most of England + Wales at least another couple of dry sunny days with warm afternoons and cool nights - the days are now much shorter allowing plenty of radiation at night. As the high slowly moves east we will draw in a more southerly flow and it will warm up by the weekend and we could see 25°C reached again - the mercury did hit 26.9°C last Sunday (15th) at St James Park in London. This might be the last of the warm weekends for a while.

The dry weather will continue into the weekend, but the models are firming up on a change of pattern thereafter to a much more mobile regime with cooler and wetter weather much more likely for all of the UK. Autumn proper is likely to arrive and there will also be a number of ex-hurricanes to keep an eye on as their remnants head our way later next week.

[Simon Culling]

It has been dry and sunny over much of the UK in the last few days with afternoon temperatures generally around 19-21°C, so pleasantly warm. There have been some quite chilly nights as well because of these clear skies. However, yesterday (Fri 20th) the SE flow and clear skies spread into Scotland and combined with a fohn effect, produced some decent temperatures in places sheltered from the SE flow by mountain ranges. Highest temperatures were generally in NW Scotland and the Highlands:

25.3°C at Kinlochewe
24.6°C at Aviemore
24.3°C at Altnaharra + Aboyne
23.7°C at Resallach, Achnagart + Fyvie Castle

Slightly warmer air will be advecting northwards today (Sat 21st) and this will bring the highest temperatures to central England (to the NW of London) where we will likely see 25-26°C recorded and as a trough approaches from the SW we will begin to see a breakdown of the warm + settled weather. This trough will introduce showers to the SW of England from Saturday afternoon and open the gate to a run of low pressure systems through next week - more normal autumnal weather. This tweet gives a better explanation of the forecast for this weekend:

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1 ... 0230157312

[Simon Culling]

Saturday + Sunday were warm days across most of the UK for early autumn and the temperatures peaked at 27.4°C at RAF Valley (on Anglesey) on Saturday (21st) and 27.7°C at Weybourne (Norfolk) on Sunday (22nd). However, on Sunday the warmth was restricted to the east as fronts pushed into more western parts of the UK and this marked a change in the weather as the jet stream pushed south as the high pressure moved deeper into Europe and a succession of fronts have crossed the UK since Sunday giving plenty of rain and showers with a few thunderstorms as well. It has also brought much cooler weather with the maximum here in Tiverton only 17°C on Monday with rain on and off all day.

Currently (Tuesday morning) plenty of heavy rain and some thunderstorms are moving east across more southern parts giving some of this area its first substantial rainfall for quite a while with a few places already reporting 30-40mm since midnight. The low pressure system bringing this rain is currently to the west of Eire and contains the remnants of Hurricane Humberto that passed close to Bermuda late last week. The forecast for the rest of the week is for the changeable and cooler weather to continue, but there are some hints in the models of something warmer and drier for the first week of October.

The CET for September was 14.3°C (+0.4°C) up to the 22nd and the EWR was 31mm also up to the 22nd, which is 40% of the monthly average. The latter will rise substantially over the next week.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has become thoroughly wet and miserable in the last few days with a succession of lows coming in off the Atlantic. Most places have seen 20-30mm of rain and there has been a lot more in many places, especially in more southern areas. For the 48 hours ended 0600GMT on Wednesday 25th September the highest totals were:

74mm at Tidworth (Wiltshire - EA gauge)
71mm at Black Lane (near Blandford Forum - Dorset - EA gauge)
68mm at RAF Boscombe Down (Wiltshire)
64mm at Tisbury (Wiltshire - EA gauge)

Even the London sites saw around the 40mm mark (e.g. 48.0mm at St James Park and 36.8mm at Kew Gardens) and there was flooding in places.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49810079

The forecast is not looking much better with plenty of showers through the weekend and into next week. A deepening low will cross the UK on Sunday and this will bring more general rain and this time windy weather. A cooler NW flow will become established early next week, so no sign of any late sunshine and warmth or the fabled 'Indian Summer'.

[Simon Culling]

The very unsettled weather has continued with plenty more rain for most of the UK, although Scotland has seen the best of the weather. Currently, there is a low slap bang over the UK (at 06:00GMT Sunday 29th it was over S Wales at 989mb and moving east) and still slowly deepening, but the wind has not bee the problem it has been the rain which is now falling on rather wet ground. 10-20mm has fallen over much of England + Wales since yesterday afternoon and some sites have seen 50mm+. With a lot more rain to come over the next few days, flooding could become more of an issue.

Looking a little further ahead, the movement of Hurricane Lorenzo out over the Atlantic is causing problems for the forecasters as its predicted motion after the weekend is all over the place. It is currently a Cat 5 Hurricane but will now decline as it moves NE over cooler waters, but after passing close to the Azores on Wednesday, forecast tracks range from Biscay to Iceland. Wherever it goes, it will have an impact on the current pattern and will inject a lot of warmth and moisture into the equation.

https://twitter.com/EssexWeather/status ... 7179532288

[Simon Culling]

The changeable and wet weather has continued and it has generally been very mild for the time of the year, but a cold front has introduced much cooler weather in the last day or so - but at least we are seeing some sunshine this morning (Weds 2nd Oct). Yesterday was another wet day with plenty of showers and thunderstorms over England + Wales with further flooding - the Isle of Man seems to have been particularly badly hit. This little island (just 50km from tip to tip) experienced quite a range in rainfall totals with the main Met Office site at Ronaldsway Airport (on the southern end of the island) receiving jut 9mm in the calendar day, but a number of sites on the northern hills had more than 100mm resulting in the flooding seen in this BBC report:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe ... n-49882291

The path of Hurricane Lorenzo has become much clearer now and there appears to be high confidence that it will track to near Eire and then change direction and move SE across the UK as a rapidly declining feature - it will not be a hurricane by the time it reaches us. It will still bring plenty of wet and windy weather for Thurs/Fri this week. Latest (6am Weds 2nd Oct) guidance from the NHC:

Hurricane Lorenzo 6am 2nd Oct 2019.png

[Simon Culling]

Hurricane Lorenzo followed the script remarkably well as it transitioned to a low pressure system and faded very quickly as it took a right turn to the northwest of Eire and headed south east over Wales + England. It brought strong winds to the west of Eire (gusts up to 110km/hr) and quite a bit of rain, but had little or no impact elsewhere - just some patchy rain and a bit of a breeze. BBC report on the effects in Eire:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49931565

The final CET for September was 14.3°C (+0.7°C) and the final EWR was 124mm which is 158% of the monthly average. Most of this rain fell in the last 10 days of the month.

No change is expected in the next 5 days with the changeable and rather wet weather continuing. It will also remain on the cool side.

[Simon Culling]

The wet weather has continued unabated here in the UK - no more thoughts of drought from now on as I think this may have set the pattern for the coming winter - wet, windy and mild. The rain has been spread over the entire country, although the far east of England, and particularly East Anglia, has unusually seen the most rain. A front stalled over the area last Sunday (6th Oct) with heavy rain for much of the day. The following totals were recorded for the calendar day of the 6th at Environment Agency sites in the counties of Norfolk + Suffolk:

68.4mm at Linstead Parva
64.6mm at Poringland STW
64.4mm at Rdisham (nr Beccles)
48.2mm at Tibenham Airfield (Met O site)

A number of PWS's recorded 70-80mm in and around the town of Lowestoft with local flooding reported quite widely.

The CET for October was 11.6°C (-0.6°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 39mm also up to the 8th, which is 45% of the monthly average of 87mm.

Plenty more rain to come over the next 3-5 days and still on the cool side, although there are tentative signs of some drier weather towards the end of the month! Thinking about turning the heating on!

[Simon Culling]

The rain continues in the UK with all areas affected to some degree. There have not been any exceptional daily totals, but it is one of those 'rain every day' run of weather situations - and not much sunshine to break the monotony. If this continues, and the forecasts for the next 5-7 days don't look good, we could be on for one of our wettest Octobers of recent years, and added to the very wet last 10 days of September, this has certainly been a wet spell. Here in Tiverton it rained for most of the weekend, but it did clear on Sunday afternoon to give us some very welcome sunshine. At least this rainy spell will go a long way to topping up the ground water levels over time - the rivers are certainly flowing a lot faster now.

It has also turned a little cooler, so I am getting near o the point of testing out the new boiler. I try to tough it out as long as possible in the autumn before I turn the central heating on, but we are getting near to that point, especially as the forecasts indicate a further cooling down next weekend. Attached is a photo from a couple of weeks ago that reflects the gloomy and stormy skies here in the UK.

hatchets pond.jpg

[Simon Culling]

Without wishing to sound repetitive, the wet weather continues unabated here in the UK, although at least it is a little on the mild side. The rain and/or showers continue with not much sunshine in-between. As reported above, individual daily totals are not excessive, but we are getting plenty every day and the monthly average has already been reached by mid-month, There is a glimmer of hope in the forecasts after the coming weekend with a good chance of a few dry days early next week, but we will likely have some frosty nights - at least there is the chance of some decent sunny spells. After that, the rains will probably return.

The CET for October was 11.7°C (+0.2°C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 84mm also up to the 16th, which is 96% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

We have finally entered a dry window of weather and after the clearance of some patchy fog this morning, it is now sunny here in Tiverton with just scattered Ac to make it occasionally hazy. The showers petered out over the weekend and it has been much drier and settled for the last couple of days and this should last a couple more. However, some forecasters are getting a bit excited about the prospect of some snow on Friday, albeit over the higher ground in the north. They are expecting a warm front breakaway to develop, but the position of the cold undercut will be crucial to the north of this warm front. The Met Office are more concerned about heavy rain further south over Wales. Snow at the end of October on the high ground of northern England and Scotland (say above 300m) is not rare, but it is not common, and the first snows of winter are always a little exciting.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1 ... 9498432512

The CET for October was 11.2°C (on average) up to the 21st and the EWR was 102mm up to the 20th, which is 117% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

An atmospheric river has become established over the UK today and will continue to deliver rain until well into Saturday with the heaviest of the rain over Wales (and especially the southern mountains - Brecon) and northern England. A SW-NE aligned front has got stuck over the UK and pulses of rain have and will continue to run NE along it for the next 24 hours or so. We could see 100mm+ over quite a wide area of inland upland Wales with 20-40mm over a large part of western and northern England. The snow risk has mostly gone, but there is still currently (9pm on Friday evening) quite a large thermal contrast across the front with the temperature ranging from 17°C in the London area and East Anglia to just 3-4°C over the far north of England. The attached figures shows the expected minimum temperatures overnight into Saturday 26th October.

Minmums 26 0ct 2019.png

We have already seen daily rainfall totals of 40mm+ on the low ground of Wales.

https://twitter.com/MillinMan1/status/1 ... 6307389440

After this front finally clears on Saturday night we will be in a NW flow with much cooler air, but it looks like being dry for 3-5 days with some frost and fog at night.

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed a very wet couple of days with more than 100mm falling on the Welsh mountains and quite a few lower sites on the west side of the UK saw 50mm or more. Here are a selection of the highest totals I can find for the 48 hours to 21:00GMT on Saturday 26th October:

122.4mm at Libanus (Powys, Wales)
95.0mm at Llysdinam (Powys)
72.2mm at Whitechurch (Pembroke, far SW Wales)
68.8mm at Pennerley (Shropshire)
58.6mm at RAF Shawbury (Shropshire)

Here in Tiverton it rained until well into Saturday afternoon, but we had approx. 20mm over the two days.

There was quite a thermal contrast across the cold front on Saturday afternoon as can be seen from this Tweet:

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1 ... 2204783616

The skies cleared overnight and we had a touch of ground frost even here in the centre of Tiverton. Should be a glorious sunny day today albeit much cooler than of late. Hopefully mostly dry for the coming week, although the latest forecasts suggest a return to the rains by the end of the week.

[Simon Culling]

The wet weather continues unabated here in the UK as the hoped for dry interlude did not include the SW of England. Monday was a crisp and sunny day after the overnight frost, but a huge shield of cirrus and altostratus then extended north from ex Hurricane Pablo (which was located to the west of the Bay of Biscay) over much of England and Wales cutting out most of the sunshine - and rain from associated fronts moved into the SW of England on Tuesday and has continued ever since as the fronts stalled. This rain is now (on Friday) beginning to move east into the rest of the UK. Today (Friday 31st Oct) has been foggy with drizzly rain here in Tiverton and rather cool at 10°C, although milder air has moved-in this evening and whilst it is still raining now at midnight, the mercury has nudged up to 13°C.

The forecast for the next five days is not any more encouraging, with the whole of the UK getting drenched as the high pressure to the north of the UK moves away east and low after low approaches from the west. There could be quite a nasty little low on Saturday moving across more southern parts of the UK (low centre currently expected to be 967mb) with some very strong winds near to the south coast, although the uncertainty in the forecast seems to be high at the moment - they only have a day or so to firm up on this.

[Simon Culling]

A developing low did run across England on Saturday (at around 968mb as it crossed south Wales) and then curved N and slowed down near to eastern Scotland. It gave a lot of rain to most of the UK, but also some very strong winds in the south and especially along the south coast. The highest gusts at Met Office sites were:

109mph at Needles Old Battery ( a very exposed site on the west side of the Isle of Wight)
94mph at Seven Stones Lighthouse (near Lands End)
83mph at Plymouth Mountbatten
82mph at RNAS Culdrose
79mph at St Mary's (Isles of Scilly)

Plenty of trees down (they are still generally in leaf) and some structural damage and sadly, one fatality. Interestingly, and there has been a lot of debate about this, the Met Office did not name this storm. BBC report of the storm:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50273590

[Simon Culling]

It must sound like a stuck record, but the unsettled weather continues, with plenty of rain or showers in the last few days - but no repeats of the strong winds, thankfully. On the plus side, all this rain is making up for over two years of below average rainfall in southern parts of the UK and it is falling at a time when it can soak into the aquafers.

The final CET for October was 10.0°C (-0.6°C) which is the first month this year to be genuinely below average. The final EWR was 149mm which is 171% of the monthly average - this now makes five months in a row with above average rainfall, although the summer months show a bias in rainfall totals to more northern parts of England + Wales. The Met Office have provided a good summary of the October weather with the usual maps - all the sunshine and fine weather was in Scotland!

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/11/0 ... g-october/

The forecast for the next few days is a little better for those of us in the south with hopefully a couple of dry days this week - although as the winds have turned into the northerly quarter, it is a little on the cool side in the wind.

[Simon Culling]

Another front crossed the UK on Weds/Thurs and pivoted around the north Midlands giving prolonged heavy rain to much of south and west Yorkshire and parts of Derbyshire + Nottinghamshire with much flooding. Five severe flood warnings were issued by the Environment Agency. The following rainfall totals were recorded in EA gauges for the 24 hours to 24:00GMT on Thurs 7th November:

111.4mm at Swineshaw (Peak District)
85.8mm at Woodhouse Mill (west of Sheffield)
82.4mm at Derwent Reservoir
81.4mm at Dore (east of Sheffield)

A couple of BBC reports give the flavour - with the last couple of months being so wet, the ground was already saturated before the rain came.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50333233

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50343977

The CET for November was 8.6°C (+0.5°C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 40mm, also up to the 6th, which is 43% of the monthly total of 92mm.

[Simon Culling]

As is usual during an election campaign, all of the political parties are cashing-in on the misery of others to score political points and claim 'it would never happen under us'. This has been the unedifying scene today following the recent flooding in south Yorkshire, and particularly in the village of Fishlake. This place is right next to the River Don and protected by embankments as it is only 3-5m above sea level - like many villages in this area, and is vulnerable to breaches in these defences. It is not clear what exactly happened to cause the flooding, but it is anywhere between the building of flood defences further upstream, to a lack of river dredging, to a failure of an embankment etc. There is no easy solution to the problem of so much housing in the UK built right next to the sea or rivers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50384178

The wet weather has continued and will do so for a few more days yet, with further heavy rain due this week- with some snow on high ground. We had quite a few hail showers here in Tiverton yesterday and it was cool with a maximum of just 9°C.

The CET for November was 7.0°C (-0.9°C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 64mm up to the 10th, which is 69% of the monthly average. Gunna be a wet and cold one for sure.

[Simon Culling]

The wet weather has continued as has the flooding, which in many areas is taking its time to subside. Rainfall totals in the last few days have not been too high, but the continued rain has certainly hampered attempts to alleviate the flooding and its effects. It has also turned colder with the rain turning to snow in the SW of England + Wales on Weds/Thurs. We even had a few hours of sleet + wet snow here in Tiverton on Thursday with a midday temperature of just 1°C. Thankfully, the snow did not settle here on the low ground, but up on the hills of Exmoor and Dartmoor and the hills of South Wales there was quite a covering.

https://twitter.com/Cloud9weather1/stat ... 2481567745

Exmoor is a range of hills in north Somerset/Devon ranging in altitude from 300m+ up to 519m.

There is further rain about today, albeit more patchy, but it should be a little drier over the weekend before more rain arrives next week when it should turn milder.

[Simon Culling]

Today (Saturday 16th Nov) in Tiverton has been dry with plenty of sunshine - a rate treat this month - and the mercury nudged 9°C. We should have a couple more dry days, but then it is back to the unsettled weather again, although it is not looking quite as wet as the first half of the month. We are on target for one of the wetter autumns of the last century, but I think we are some way from the record for rainfall. It will be interesting to see the final statistics in a few weeks time.

The colours of autumn have been good this year and surprisingly, many of the trees are still in leaf - despite the unsettled weather we have not had any real windstorms to remove them. I took a walk in the New Forest last weekend when we had a brief dry and sunny afternoon and that was when the attached photos were taken - in a place called Denny Wood Enclosure - where if you are lucky, you can see wild deer.

dle 2.jpg

dle 1.jpg