Rugby World Cup Weather - Japan 2019

[Razor]

As a matter of vast national security it is of great urgency that we are across potential issues over the next two months in Japan. Any local knowledge here?
Looks like its kicking off with a major typhoon...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/a ... ign=nzh_fb

[tornado]

As a matter of vast national security it is of great urgency that we are across potential issues over the next two months in Japan. Any local knowledge here?
Looks like its kicking off with a major typhoon...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/a ... ign=nzh_fb

i hope not. i want the all blacks to win ahgain this year

[Cyclone Tracy]

It is surprising that the World cup wasn't scheduled a month later for Japan. In my opinion, once you get into mid October, mid latitude wind shear starts to shred Typhoon's that get as far north as Japan. So the danger should lessen as the world cup goes on.

[Willoughby]

I disagree, I think it's a great time climate-wise to hold the event. Typhoons are a still a rare occurrence hitting the mainland (nothing like the Philippines or Okinawa...). Japan cools down a lot during October and should be nice and comfortable for tourists.

Climate graphs for Tokyo:

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Osaka isn't really that much different:

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From: https://weatherspark.com/compare/m/10/1 ... in-October

[Cyclone Tracy]

Early days and can't be taken serious yet but JMA are going to earn their cash if invest 95W starts spinning harder. A few members on GEFS and EC have it riding the ridge towards Japan around kick off.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I hate commercialized rugby so I dont care what happens.

[tornado]

I hate commercialized rugby so I dont care what happens.

i love it I hope it weakens in time so all the tourist can tour and watch the games. I really want the all blacks to win again this year how ever with the best players gone i dont think thats gonna happen.

[Razor]

GFS seems to bring a significant weather system right across Japan for opening week. Could be mucky! Watching with interest.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It would be nice to see Greece beats the All blacks or Iceland

[RWood]

I hate commercialized rugby so I dont care what happens.

i love it I hope it weakens in time so all the tourist can tour and watch the games. I really want the all blacks to win again this year how ever with the best players gone i dont think thats gonna happen.

Best players gone? Hardly. One promising young guy injured, replaced by another.

[RWood]

It would be nice to see Greece beats the All blacks or Iceland

Haven't seen those 2 countries on the list …

[Cyclone Tracy]

GFS seems to bring a significant weather system right across Japan for opening week. Could be mucky! Watching with interest.

Yes, rugby officials would be quite concerned at todays 00Z runs for GFS and Icon. Both are typhoon strength with significant outer rainbands. They would have a Saturday and Sunday affect if they verify. Upcoming UK and EC runs will be watched closely. Still well over 100 hours out, so plenty of time for change

[spwill]

Yes, looking like wet weather rugby for the All Blacks game on Saturday evening at this stage.

[Willoughby]

Mod note: Please if you're not interested about the weather in Japan and/or rugby during this event, please don't spoil the topic for others who are interested. Simply leave the thread alone. Thank you.

[Simon Culling]

Hopefully the weather will not interfere with the Rugby. England's first game is an evening kick off (7:15pm local time) on Sunday 22nd against Tonga in the northern city of Sapporo. It is in a covered stadium so the weather is not so much of a concern - except for the fans. The current forecast is for a dry day with sunny intervals and a maximum of 20°C and a light southerly breeze. At kick-off the forecast is for cloudy skies and 16°C, but rain is expected late in the evening and overnight. let's see how much this changes.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 95W has just popped a hot tower to the SW of the circulation with cloud tops around -100C. It's attempting to organise.

Models are split on the movement after 48 hours. Depends who you believe for what the impact will be on the world cup but some North American models are suggesting that multiple games would be cancelled, some others send it near Taiwan. Still too early to say but an interesting 48 hours ahead

Invest 95W 1709.jpg

[Razor]

Invest 95W has just popped a hot tower to the SW of the circulation with cloud tops around -100C. It's attempting to organise.

Models are split on the movement after 48 hours. Depends who you believe for what the impact will be on the world cup but some North American models are suggesting that multiple games would be cancelled, some others send it near Taiwan. Still too early to say but an interesting 48 hours ahead

Invest 95W 1709.jpg

Yikes, squeaky bum time for the tournament officials, not to mention the locals of Japan or Taiwan, etc...GFS has twin systems latest run?

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yikes, squeaky bum time for the tournament officials, not to mention the locals of Japan or Taiwan, etc...GFS has twin systems latest run?

Yep, GFS has 2 circulations which consolidate under a fujiwhara effect into a decent tropical storm with very heavy rainbands. Some models are going typhoon strength. High uncertainty after 48 hours IMO but there would be some very nervous tournament officials.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Main models starting to align on a tropical storm up to a strong typhoon impacting Japan in some way. JMA would be starting to cautiously brief officials after the 00Z runs I would imagine. GFS output is currently the worst model for match impacts. UK has a proper typhoon hitting SW Japan and South Korea.

JTWC now upgrading 95W to a 'orange circle' formation alert.

JTWC 1709.jpg

[Razor]

Boom

typhoon world cup.jpg

[Cyclone Tracy]

Yes, the North American models are painting a rather robust strike on Japan. The main hurricane model HWRF run 18z is showing a well defined eyewall and 957 hPa just off the SW of Japan on Saturday evening. EC and the UK main models are still steering the storm/typhoon further west towards Sth Korea. The nasty side of the system is on the SE ands NE quadrants which is not good for the tournament.

[tornado]

which is not good for the tournament.

I aggree. excpeccially for all the tourist and the teams. unlucky.

[Razor]

Japanese Metservice certainly not turning a blind eye...

ext weather.jpg

[Simon Culling]

The first game (Japan v Russia) starts at 10:45GMT (or 22:45 NZ time) on Friday 20th September at the Tokyo Stadium in the capital, Tokyo. The current forecast for the Friday evening KO time is for drizzly rain and a temperature of 21°C with a light easterly breeze. A bit warm for some teams and I wonder if this 'warmth' might count against the European sides who are more used to playing in winter when it is cold.

[spwill]

I think a hot humid night would have disadvantaged the All Blacks coming out of NZ Winter.
Damp conditions looking likely for the All Black game on Saturday night but may not be too bad with the main system still to the SW.