Rugby World Cup Weather - Japan 2019

[Cyclone Tracy]

JTWC issues it's first map for Tropical depression 18W. JTWC have it as a tropical storm (Japan Met would have Severe Tropical storm) strength as it moves in on south west Japan and Sth Korea on Sunday. Plenty can change still, especially in this part of the world.

TD18 W warning 1.jpg

[Razor]

Hopefully the models hold true and have the worst of the system to sea between Japan and China, although it looks like northern Japan could be in for a hit. To my mind the England v Tonga game at the Sapporo Dome could be under some threat of disruption.

Of course as we know, things change with just minor adjustments with such storm paths

[Cyclone Tracy]

JMA now grades Tapah as a severe tropical storm. JTWC are projecting Tapah reaches Typhoon strength (on their scale) tomorrow evening with tropical storm force winds hitting the main Island on Monday.

The slow down and track of the system will mean little impact on the weekend tournament matches at this stage. One sudden right turn would obviously change all of that quite quickly.

TS Tapah 2109 JMA.jpg

TS Tapah 2109 JTWC.jpg

[tornado]

I wonder hows the weather overthere at the moment new zealand (all blacks) just beat south africa yesss!!!

it was 23 all blacks -13 south africa aka the springboks.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tapah has wobbled more right with a weaker ridge overnight than forecast. The main island of Japan is now expected to receive more tropical storm force winds.

Current timing of track would mean that the Wales v Georgia tomorrow match would only see rain impacts of the system around Tokyo, as Tokyo is on the south side of the Island. If Tapah moves right again, this would change.

TS Tapah 2209 JMA.jpg

TS Tapah 2209 JTWC.jpg

[Razor]

Looks like the tournament dodged a significant bullet with this system. Phew!

[Simon Culling]

The forecast for England's first game on Sunday was OK although it was a little cooler at kick-off time than expected when the local airport was reporting partly cloudy skies and 13°C. The rain did not arrive until Monday morning and gave a cool and wet day with a maximum of just 14°C.

It looks like being a lot warmer for their second game on Thursday evening when England play the USA in Kobe. The current forecast is for a sunny and humid day with a maximum of 28°C and not much cooler at kick-off time when it is expected to be 25°C with a light NE breeze.

Wales are currently playing Georgia at the Toyota Stadium in Nagoya and the humid weather (25°C at kick-off time) does not seem to be affecting them.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Main EC control has projected a typhoon for 3 runs in a row to affect the Japan region mid next next week. Today's 25 Sept 12z run put a significant typhoon impacting south west Japan from Wednesday evening into Thursday. The All Blacks play Canada in this region on Wednesday evening. Still too early to take seriously but quite interesting.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 91W has an unusual good agreement this far out amongst the GEFS ensemble members, similar to EC's. It will be interesting to see the UK ensemble once it runs.

Edit: UK 2509 12Z run put a 936 hPa Typhoon in the same region next Wednesday.

[Simon Culling]

Close to kick-off for England v USA at the Kobe City Misaki Park Stadium. The latest METAR from Kobe City Airport (just before kick-off) is:

RJBE 261000Z 26005KT 9999 FEW030 BKN130 24/18 Q1023

Quite warm and humid. I am not sure yet if the stadium roof is open.

EDIT: Reports from the stadium say the roof is closed and the touchline temperature is 26°C. Bit warm.

[Willoughby]

EDIT: Reports from the stadium say the roof is closed and the touchline temperature is 26°C. Bit warm.

Having no breeze there for the players would make it that much warmer also.

Longer range it looks like the much higher than normal temperatures across northeast Asia could finally be thwarted by a long wave trough into the day 7-9 range and subsequent cold front, giving some relief to the tropical open-gate conditions over Japan that has continued.

[Cyclone Tracy]

JTWC latest track map for tropical depression 19W. Typhoon strength around Japan this track map.

[Simon Culling]

England's next game is against Argentina on Saturday 5th October (at 5pm local time) at the Ajinomoto Stadium in Chofu, Tokyo, which is an open air stadium. The current forecast is for a near 100% chance of showers or thunderstorms and a kick-off temperature of 27°C.

This could be a tough game against the, let's say, physical Argentines.

[Willoughby]

All the games over the weekend looked stifling, including tonight with zero wind under the roof in the Samoa Scotland game. That's what makes it so much worse.

We get windless conditions quite often inland of here at night during the summer and it makes you lose control if you're not careful.

28/22 in Kobe during tonight's game.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Typhoon WITAG now passed Taiwan, interacting with China while riding the ridge towards South Korea. World Cup match tomorrow night between the All Blacks and Canada will most likely get an outer rainband but no direct impact on its current course. Forecast 10 to 40mm, Max 27 to Min 22c. Longer term could see tropical storm forces winds over northern Japan later in the week.

Even though its a little ugly and lop sided, always nice to see a tropical system on sunrise

Typhoon MITAG 0110.jpg

[Razor]

The roof is closed tonight and clearly the heat and humidity is affecting the game. Dropped ball all over the show

[Simon Culling]

Getting close to kick-off for the England v Argentina game which is finally in an open air stadium. However, it is very warm in Tokyo today and the nearest airport to the stadium is Haneda where the latest METAR shows a dew point of 19°C.

RJTT 050700Z 13007KT 9999 FEW030 SCT/// 28/19 Q1008 NOSIG RMK 1CU030 A2978

The weather should remain dry for the duration of the game, but thunderstorms are in the forecast for later in the evening. The 10-day forecasts are now showing a gradual cool down nationwide to more comfortable temperatures for the players.

[Razor]

Getting close to kick-off for the England v Argentina game which is finally in an open air stadium. However, it is very warm in Tokyo today and the nearest airport to the stadium is Haneda where the latest METAR shows a dew point of 19°C.

RJTT 050700Z 13007KT 9999 FEW030 SCT/// 28/19 Q1008 NOSIG RMK 1CU030 A2978

The weather should remain dry for the duration of the game, but thunderstorms are in the forecast for later in the evening. The 10-day forecasts are now showing a gradual cool down nationwide to more comfortable temperatures for the players.

It's raining high tackles against England

[Cyclone Tracy]

5 to 10 knot vertical wind shear, 29 to 30c sea surface temperatures means that Tropical storm HAGIBIS is becoming likely to reach Super Typhoon status in less than 100 hours. Waters around the southern side of Japan's main island are currently around 26 to 27c. UkMet on the 12Z run produced a 895 hPa monster moving into the outer Japanese islands in 144 hours.

TS HAGIBIS.jpg

[Simon Culling]

Hagibis might affect the SW tip of Japan towards next weekend. The group decider between France and England is to be played next Saturday (12th October) at the Nissan Stadium in Yokohama. The current forecast for kick-off time (5pm local) is for a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a temperature of 23°C and a gentle east breeze. Still very warm for the major teams.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The 2 big global models for TC's are projecting Hagibis to go into the big league on Thursday. UK was the first to below 900 hPa yesterday with EC now following. This will be earth's most powerful tropical system of 2019 if they verify. Rapid Intensification seems assured with the environment.

Interesting to look at the famous 1979 Typhoon Tip with it's path and dates, quite similar. October generally means more hostile wind shear for any Typhoon heading into mainland Japan.

EC UK 0610 12.jpg

[Razor]

Excuse the vernacular....but faaaaaaaar out!!!!!

Japan super typhoon.jpg

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hagibis is absolutely exploding in the west Pacific. From a Storm to nearly a super Typhoon in 3 hours. The deadly pinhole eye has appeared. Latest JTWC is eyeing off Japan with a near 100 knot Typhoon in 5 days.

ST Hagibis.jpg

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hagibis has now dropped 53 hPa in 6 hours with an outbreak of eyewall lightning. Now has the super Typhoon status, 930 hPa and falling, 130 knot winds. Lots of chatter online in Japan about stocking up on supplies now. Models continue to bring a weakening typhoon into Japan but still a sizeable hit and around 935 to 950 hPa typhoon strength.

Edit: JTWC update now using the language of ERI (extreme rapid intensification) in their latest update. Went from 50 knots to 130 knots in 24 hours period threshold. Also mentioning 105 knot typhoon impact on Japan.

Hagibis 0710 8pm NZT.jpg

[Simon Culling]

Thanks for all the typhoon updates, CT. As you have said, Hagibis may well affect Japan (and the rugby) by the weekend.

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1181148020760567808