Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
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Re: General September Weather
Its clouding over from the NW, could be a negative?
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Re: General September Weather
It's the SSW affect is going into 2nd gear. There are 8 separate streamers now coming out of the tropospheric polar vortex in our part of the world.snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 08:57CT, interested to know if you believe this is directly related to the SSW, and what are your thoughts on this afternoon in Canterbury? Appreciated as always.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 08:44 8am water vapour sat pic showing a significant dual airflow upper polar injection with moisture pluming around the -38c @500 hPa cold pool just off the SI.
An aggressive negative SAM (AAO) phase which the GEFS ensemble is starting to show in Oct, will be characterised by an outbreak of cut off lows in the mid latitudes, this would include synoptic scale cyclonic Tasman and South Pacific gyre development.
As for Canterbury today and tonight, NZ Storm, Tony and others have given some good feedback. I think it deserves thread
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Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Think this deserves a new thread, plenty of discussion around it.
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Re: General September Weather
Met Service on twitter said this outbreak is more to do with a stormy SAM than the SSW
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Re: General September Weather
The SAM is surely influenced by the SSW, MS just don't want to hype it IMO.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Strong convection after surface heating with -5C 850mb, -11/12C 700mb and -35C 500mb temperatures (GFS)
Snow showers to sea level (quoting Metservice thunderstorm outlook)
Severe thunderstorm watch and thunder for much of the North Otago and South-North Canterbury coast, thunder for Southland and the west coast
Large hail accumulations
Strong wind
Bring back Buck
Or will it fizz?
Very interesting afternoon and evening ahead.
Snow showers to sea level (quoting Metservice thunderstorm outlook)
Severe thunderstorm watch and thunder for much of the North Otago and South-North Canterbury coast, thunder for Southland and the west coast
Large hail accumulations
Strong wind
Bring back Buck
Or will it fizz?
Very interesting afternoon and evening ahead.
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Re: General September Weather
They have been behind the 8 ball on this SSW event all along. What they don't seem to get is that the AAO does not drive our weather. Its a measure of the interaction of processes which do. And the SSW is giving the AAO a fair old nudge.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Multiple cm's to sea level.. not out of the question if a big beefy shower or two moves through IMO
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Classic NW day here in Chch now, wind from NW too.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
NE - NNE in the City, SE at New Brighton and NW up Sugarloaf, all very light winds.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Warm and sunny now in town and looking promising to the SW
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
It's been dry here most of the morning but now we've had a few heavy hail showers.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Temp fell from 9.7C to 4.8C an hour ago with light rain and a SW change
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
First wee cell over Birdlings Flat, went from noting on radar to something in 15min!
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Certainly very unstable air around.. after 3-4pm is when it gets really interesting though i think.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
From the office...
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
I reckon that was Lake Ellesmere that caused that.03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 12:59 First wee cell over Birdlings Flat, went from noting on radar to something in 15min!
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Same thing just happened as a VERY SMALL cell passed over Rakaia river... as it passed over it intensified rapidly....Powermad wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 13:14I reckon that was Lake Ellesmere that caused that.03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 12:59 First wee cell over Birdlings Flat, went from noting on radar to something in 15min!
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Yeah that Rakaia cell has exploded, on track for the city...
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Snowing at Arthurs Pass, Transit NZ advise chains essential
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Has gone nuts in the last 15 mins... and continues to do so. Gust front?03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 25/09/2019 13:21 Yeah that Rakaia cell has exploded, on track for the city...
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
That cell when it hits lake ellesmere may intensify.. either skirt out towards birdlings and past BP or come for the city.
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Re: Very cold and unstable SW blast, Eastern SI 25th Sept
Temp dropping quickly here now. Down to 3.8 and a real chill in the air even though it’s just overcast and not much wind.