General October Weather

[treetopkk]

Decent looking high for next week. [if we survive the next couple of days] Tasman sea has cooled significantly finishing last Autumn warmer than normal and now colder than normal which will lessen the impact of any Polar incursions.

[Richard]

Though it shows here that its still mostly above normal. https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/ ... jsp?c=ssta

[Awhituobs]

yeah, I think he has not worded that correctly lol

[Richard]

yeah, I think he has not worded that correctly lol

Oh well, not the only one capable of doing that

[tich]

That SW change looks to arrive quite late tonight in Canterbury, not sure if thats a good thing RE thunderstorms.. still there is an onshore NE which might create some forcing, either way overnight is going to piss down! I suppose thats where metservice get there idea of 300m snow?? Evaporate cooling? As the 850mb and 700mb dont support snow that low..Some good period of rain coming!

Never underestimate evaporate cooling or undercutting lowering snow levels inheavy rain. Remember November last year, with snow falling as low as 100m in Mid-Canterbury, far below what Metservice forecast.

[Storm Struck]

Yes definatly a timing issue today in terms of thunder chances, but there could be a few isolated cells about late this afternoon around south canterbury on the edge of the rain band.
Whether that activity drags north at night you never know.
Current conditions are breezy NE with partial heating, thin upper level cloud and a sundog 15C.

[Awhituobs]

ps, it strange how the tasman sea is warming that normal after all the cold SW winds

[NZstorm]

The western Tasman has had some warm air masses coming off Australia and high pressure cells there too. I see Sydney forecast 33C on Friday as another surge of warm air crosses.

[Awhituobs]

yeah, i guess that is the source of the warm water for sure

ps, this talk of 6 to 9m swells for the west coast of the NI by Niwa and WW is a bit over the top
5 to 6m range more likely..its very rare to see over 6m...would need a long fetch and a good length of time at the high windspeeds
and then you have the relatively shallow conitental shelf and coast line which takes away a lot of the wave energy
yeah /nah?

luckily the tides are not big though

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nothing happening down here today, sadly, just boring, grey and overcast. High level clagg

[Chris W]

Here comes the rain, certainly looks like a fair amount of it.

They could do with it up in Auckland...

[treetopkk]

Sorry looks about normal across the Tasman. Cant recall what site I was looking at last week now.May change if this pattern keeps up. Large anomaly NW o.f Australia reg temps at the moment

[Awhituobs]

yes the current weather pattern has cooled the surface back to normal
its amazing how fast it can change

[Razor]

Arthur's Pass closed due to snow

[Chris W]

Short but intense hail shower just now in Lyttelton.

Torrential rain now.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The upper level clagg has cleared away to the NE and becoming fine here, however some rather unstable looking Cu going up as it had become a slight easterly. It came onto rain from just before 4pm but has eased away now with that high cloud moving away to the NE.
Timing is a factor with this as if had occurred earlier in the day, it might of been a different story.

[Chris W]

Jeepers this rain is crazy heavy!

Now it is hailing so hard I can barely hear.

[Chris W]

Lightning too, this is epic.

She's not abating, continuing torrential rain and the garden is getting flooded.

[Richard]

Intense wee cell gone over you looking at radar Chris

[Chris W]

Still going, the road is a river.

[Richard]

Still going, the road is a river.

Lucky bugger

[Razor]

Meanwhile over here its cleared. Must be very localised

[Chris W]

Finished up about 10 minutes ago, can't think what the road is like down the bottom of the hill.

Here's a video of the road, had to use a torch as it was so dark:

https://photos.app.goo.gl/DRxHVjaNgUneHGDi9

[Storm Struck]

Some local forcing around the port hills with a strong NE would have got that cell on the leading first band line going.
I did notice the CU going up this afternoon inland where the heating was, and later became turbulent skies with light rain and big fat drops.
Current radar as of now shows the low centre crossing over christchurch, the storm is spirling in pegasus bay.
The strong southerly on its way to the south, should be some heavy falls tonight maybe some hail too.

[snowykiwi]

Last weekend we had an inch of rain in our rain gauge here in Rakaia. For the last half hour i’ve Been awake - we have persistent heavy rain, now with hail showers mixed in. Strong wind gusts too. Just checked the cameras at work in Methven - no snow there yet.