General October Weather

[NZstorm]

The website Severe Weather Europe blames the unusually positive Indian Ocean Dipole Index for the warm autumn in Europe and also the Aussie drought. I guess our current weather patterns are being significantly influenced by the IOD as well.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/unus ... europe-fa/

[NZstorm]

21C was the country's high today as far as airport data, Timaru/Ashburton/Christchurch.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

21C was the country's high today as far as airport data, Timaru/Ashburton/Christchurch.

23.4C here in Geraldine

[Chris Raine]

21.8C at Thornbury today at 1641.Nice sunny afternoon after the front passed which gave me 1.5mm

[Chris Raine]

Strong SW about to hit us. Can see line of precipitation on radar in Foveaux Strait advancing our way

[Chris W]

GFS spins up a low over Chch Tuesday evening, uppers -28C, looking a more potent SW/SE change.

[Awhituobs]

re IOD

This change occurred because unusually strong Eastern winds were blowing in the east region, pushing warmer waters towards the west, and causing colder deeper water to rise to the surface in the eastern region.

that explains it nicely

normally this time of year big cloud bands/jet stream move in from the Indian ocean and across australia and out over NSW and into the Tasman, spawning strong NW winds across the tasman
that is not happening as much this year
and is one reason the east of the SI is much colder than normal..they are not getting the warm NW wind as much

[tornado]

its back to showers today mainly from midday. we have a cooler day on wednesday only getting up to 14 degrees

[spwill]

its back to showers today mainly from midday. we have a cooler day on wednesday only getting up to 14 degrees

Not a bad day today though. Wednesday into thursday looking breezy and cool, overall the week ahead looks brighter than the previous couple of weeks, we might get a fine first couple of days to the coming holiday weekend, GFS has been indicating a good start to this long weekend.

[mikestormchaser]

Looks like a moderate risk set up for a thunderstorm/ hail over Canterbury tomorrow evening. Today a low risk convergence but tomorrow looks better. One to keep an eye on. Could even be low risk severe hail tomorrow aswel

[Storm Struck]

The models are projected to have this westerly drop off this afternoon, although it looks more likely to ocurr around Ashburton to chch.
This is where the ridge opens up and allows an onshore flow in, we just need that high cloud to break.
Not too much moisture today but its a convergence set up, brief and isolated.
Tomorrow looks a stronger chance late afternoon/ evening on the edge of the developing incoming band.
The low crossing is key to keeping that ridge again open and allowing good afternoon heating, everything else is there.
Id be covering my crops if i were a horticulturalist especially south of christchurch.

[Chris W]

MS going moderate risk along a narrow corridor in mid-Canterbury today, nothing for tomorrow as yet:
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/thu ... rm-outlook

[Orion]

Southerly bustling through Ashburton now.

[Richard]

The Transit NZ weather station at Hurunui on the 'your weather' page has been playing up a bit lately, showing 9deg atm where it should be showing about 14-15deg

[snowstormwatcher]

The Transit NZ weather station at Hurunui on the 'your weather' page has been playing up a bit lately, showing 9deg atm where it should be showing about 14-15deg

its not just the Hurunui station, ive seen multiple stations with both rainfall and the Temperature inaccurate. Yesterday it was showing rain and 8c in Timaru when it was actually mostly fine and 20c at the time, and last week it was showing 3.6c and 20mm of rain at mt cook and when i checked on the webcam there it looked like fine weather.

Southerly change here around 10am with few clouds and some weak looking shower activity to the east of here. 12c currently

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I've seen some inaccuracies on the Your Weather page as well.
I think that some people don't check them or do maintenance of those automatic weather stations.
Today's southerly change was a bit of a fizzer although we did get a shower from the west early this afternoon.Just boring flat stratus cloud over the place now although it looks fine out to sea.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest EC 18Z showing major surface pressure anomalies over the Antarctic continent this week, especially Friday. Current surface temperatures on the continent over 2c above normal now. SAM (AAO) index currently nearing negative 2 and falling. Hadley cell seems to be retreating equatorward as a big long wave trough moves into the NZ region this week. Keeping a close eye on rogue powerful polar troughs that could be underestimated by models over the next 14 days.

Antarctic 2510.jpg

SH 2510.jpg

[Awhituobs]

its not very often u see high confidence of severe gales in the severe weather outlook from M/S
(for Wednesday)
sure does look like it though with the sharpening trough

[BeaconHill]

Lovely wave clouds to the north east of Wellington earlier this afternoon.

AE579744-E1F5-4FFF-ABD3-9C582E66906A.jpeg

[Richard]

The SW wind change to moved through Canterbury came within a few k's before being pushed east, so the W-NW wind remains

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The SW wind change to moved through Canterbury came within a few k's before being pushed east, so the W-NW wind remains

Winds, even though light, back to the NE here, with a shower moving across from the west.
Expecting nothing much.
Tomorrow might be better, depending on surface heating, timing etc.

[NZstorm]

its not very often u see high confidence of severe gales in the severe weather outlook from M/S
(for Wednesday)
sure does look like it though with the sharpening trough

The SW gales on Wednesday over the west of the North Island will be reinforced by squally weather, so big gusts, isolated thunderstorms as well.

[tornado]

yes wednesday does look stormy.

[Chris W]

All out to sea today, never remotely looked like action or even rain in Amberley or Chch. Quite a pleasant day in the end.

Tomorrow will be much more interesting, MS talking snow to 300m late on.

[mikestormchaser]

That SW change looks to arrive quite late tonight in Canterbury, not sure if thats a good thing RE thunderstorms.. still there is an onshore NE which might create some forcing, either way overnight is going to piss down! I suppose thats where metservice get there idea of 300m snow?? Evaporate cooling? As the 850mb and 700mb dont support snow that low..Some good period of rain coming!