General October Weather

[tornado]

unexpected heavyish squally shower here at the moment

[Chris W]

That cell was looking very thunderstormic from Kaiapoi on the way back to town, hints of a gust front but then it seemed to fade. Clear now, just some wet roads.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

You been done a bit of cross country lately John

I thought it would make a good contrast to the clouds in the background.
Filthy cars and Filthy Weather judging by the clouds in the background ?

[jamie]

This weather sucks! Been wearing winter jacket and beanie for most of October. The last few days have been quite cold with the biting wind.


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[tornado]

This weather sucks! Been wearing winter jacket and beanie for most of October. The last few days have been quite cold with the biting wind.


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yes have been windy and cloudy and not much rain. though did get hail yesterday in auckland which was fairly widespread. . but nothing else really, did clear up to a sunny afternoon though yesterday. and today. cloudy periods here though a hevay squally shower did pass over.

[NZstorm]

Some warmer weather this weekend. GFS has Dunedin Airport 25C on Saturday and Gisborne area up to 27C on Sunday.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another photo from today.

Majors RoAD.JPG

[Razor]

20191024_213243.jpg

Friend in Dunsandel reports jaffa sized hail just trashed his vege garden a few minutes ago.

That'll be the red bit on the radar

[TonyT]

20191024_213243.jpgFriend in Dunsandel reports jaffa sized hail just trashed his vege garden a few minutes ago.

That'll be the red bit on the radar

Tha shower still has hail in it as it goes over now, but only small.

[spwill]

Atleast the good weather is timed with a holiday weekend and the weekends have been quite good in Auckland through October but a poor month generally, a big negative phase of the SAM currently.

[tornado]

Atleast the good weather is timed with a holiday weekend and the weekends have been quite good in Auckland through October but a poor month generally, a big negative phase of the SAM currently.

yes lots of cloud. lots of wnd. less rain. and there hasnt beeen much thunder although there has been hail a couple of times.

[spwill]

Atleast the good weather is timed with a holiday weekend and the weekends have been quite good in Auckland through October but a poor month generally, a big negative phase of the SAM currently.

yes lots of cloud. lots of wnd. less rain. and there hasnt beeen much thunder although there has been hail a couple of times.

October and November are not the months for thunder in Auckland due to central Tasman sea highs and the W/SW wind pattern, need a lazy weather pattern now with a moisture feed and sea breeze convergence, more likely from December.

[tornado]

yes lots of cloud. lots of wnd. less rain. and there hasnt beeen much thunder although there has been hail a couple of times.

October and November are not the months for thunder in Auckland due to central Tasman sea highs and the W/SW wind pattern, need a lazy weather pattern now with a moisture feed and sea breeze convergence, more likely from December.

true although last november was differant though. I remember on the 20th we had some hailstorms and thunder here in auckland. it was quite an active day on the 20th novemer last year.

[RWood]

Looking at the NIWA daily climate maps to 9am on the 24th, the South Island overall is clearly more than 0.5C below average, but the North Island is close to average. I think the 7SS for the month will come in a little below average but not by as much as 0.5C.

[David]

Long way out but some big temperature numbers showing up next Sunday on the GFS. 25 in Auckland and near 30 inland! Signals of a possible pattern change perhaps

[tornado]

Long way out but some big temperature numbers showing up next Sunday on the GFS. 25 in Auckland and near 30 inland! Signals of a possible pattern change perhaps

wow. 25 degrees. that will be a first since early this year. roll on summer.

[NZstorm]

EU 850mb temperature anomaly for next Saturday.
Yes, looks like there could be a multiday warm event for NZ to kick November off.

850 temp anomaly.png

[TonyT]

EU 850mb temperature anomaly for next Saturday.
Yes, looks like there could be a multiday warm event for NZ to kick November off.

850 temp anomaly.png

OMG - the potential cold and warm air mixing evident in that map is quite something.

[David]

EU 850mb temperature anomaly for next Saturday.
Yes, looks like there could be a multiday warm event for NZ to kick November off.

850 temp anomaly.png

Both GFS and EC showing 850mb temp getting up to 19C over NZ. Something you'd expect more in Jan/Feb, and even then that is quite high

[tornado]

EU 850mb temperature anomaly for next Saturday.
Yes, looks like there could be a multiday warm event for NZ to kick November off.

850 temp anomaly.png

Both GFS and EC showing 850mb temp getting up to 19C over NZ. Something you'd expect more in Jan/Feb, and even then that is quite high

I wonder if its a developing heatwave? looks like we about to have another thunderstorm and rain draught for auckland maybe.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Looking at the NIWA daily climate maps to 9am on the 24th, the South Island overall is clearly more than 0.5C below average, but the North Island is close to average. I think the 7SS for the month will come in a little below average but not by as much as 0.5C.

Just took a quick look at my local stats until the 25th, certainly an interesting month compared to 2018. Currently -1.9c for max, +1.2c for min and -0.3c for the overall daily mean.

Longer term against average, -0.4c for max, +0.9c for min and right on average for the daily mean as you have suggested above for the NI.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Warm day here with hardly any wind. 28C.

[NZstorm]

Pukaki Airport up to 27C today followed by Alexandra on 26C.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Peaked out at 29.4C here...
....now excuse me whilst I put on my Morris Dancing gear

[tornado]

Peaked out at 29.4C here...
....now excuse me whilst I put on my Morris Dancing gear

wow summer is difenatly on its way. earlier this year.