Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Cyclone Tracy
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Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Just putting in a thread for the developing Tasman low. Colder upper level air now interacting with moisture in the Northern Tasman, with the surface low and storms developing. A secondary cold air injection it likely to occur as the surface low approaches the North Island potentially deepening the low further. Rain, wind and possible storms from Monday evening through to Wednesday across a wide area as the system moves south east.

MS have now issued code Orange for rain and winds.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/sev ... r-warnings

Tasman low 13 Oct.jpg
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tornado
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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yes. looking quite stormy to start next week
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Chris Raine »

And the third low which impacts the West Coast next Friday 18th
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Don't see cirrus like this very
20191013_155235.jpg
often
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Cyclone Tracy
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Main models on the 00Z runs now placing the deepening centre of the low to the west of Northland of Tuesday morning, EC projecting pressure around 981 hPa. This will position an unstable occluded front over Auckland and the Coromandel in the early hours of Tuesday morning, providing some very active weather.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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lightning starting to spark as the low gets closer. im thinking that there will be a risk here at some point between monday -wednesday.


edit lightning has stopped for now.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by David »

Can hear the gusts starting to whistle past the office building in the CBD now, probably around 50 km/h or so at a guess
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Winds have picked up here as well. Recorded easterly gusts to 70 km/h with the hand held at 9.30 on Mt Victoria. Should be quite aggressive later on with that low position.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Low's circulation centre is consolidating around 90 km NW of Cape Reinga on the latest sat pic. Cape Reinga is now down to 993 hPa. Whangarei Heads PWS just clocked a 110 km/h easterly coming off the gulf.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Awhituobs »

to be fair, its a pretty average event for lows like this
been worse in the past (80 kts in the outer gulf is common when there is a good low from the north pushing into a high pressure)
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Quite a rough ferry trip back home but not strong enough to cancel. Seems to have eased from a few hours ago.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Nice cold air injection coming in from the upper low in the Tasman giving the surface low a kick along off Cape Reinga. Some isolated sparks appearing on the frontal boundary off the east coast of Northland along with increased mid level moisture.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Conditionally unstable air mass across the North Island tomorrow with daytime heating/coupled with convergence could generate some thunderstorms. Also orographic lift over the Coromandel to BOP ranges. This type of set up would be good for storms in December but in mid October it's a bit marginal.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Starting to see boat damage in Waitemata harbour.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by ben g »

CT, We must walk past each other while storm watching. I also live in devonport. Have just arrived home very wet and cold after helping another guy secure that yacht to the sea wall. These east Sou east gales are always damaging for the yachts moored in this area.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by ben g »

20191014_212033.jpg
For an area that's normally shelterd from most winds, the east Sou east gales blow with a large fetch.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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ben g wrote: Mon 14/10/2019 21:16 CT, We must walk past each other while storm watching. I also live in devonport. Have just arrived home very wet and cold after helping another guy secure that yacht to the sea wall. These east Sou east gales are always damaging for the yachts moored in this area.
Well done ben g securing it =D> It was bouncing around quite a bit when I went past.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by David »

A fairly steady light to moderate rain overnight, 22mm on my station since 9pm.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Just realised the rain gauge is continuing to count at the same rate even though the rain stopped, something must have blown in the gauge overnight and partially blocked it 😔
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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36mm so far here. Wind was consistently strong overnight. Baro now 990.6 hPa, a drop of 23 hPa in the last 24 hours.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by Awhituobs »

Auckland land area has had gales...but no severe gales as forecasted and warned by M/S (even fire service pagers were going off a day ahead warning of 120km gusts..)
(in the past there has been worse easterly storms and at times not forecasted too (due to fronts that got more active across the area)...you cant win I guess LOL)
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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Heavy rain here this morning, skies brightening now. Afternoon looks to dry out here.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by David »

Cleared the gauge and measured out the remaining water, it comes to 33mm overnight for here. Wind wasn't particularly strong, been a long time since we had a decent easterly blow here.
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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had a good rain here last night. wind was blowing. but not gale
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Re: Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see 170mm in 12hours at the Pinnacles on Coromandel. Some road closures there as usual in wet weather.
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