Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 13/10/2019 11:08

Just putting in a thread for the developing Tasman low. Colder upper level air now interacting with moisture in the Northern Tasman, with the surface low and storms developing. A secondary cold air injection it likely to occur as the surface low approaches the North Island potentially deepening the low further. Rain, wind and possible storms from Monday evening through to Wednesday across a wide area as the system moves south east.

MS have now issued code Orange for rain and winds.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/sev ... r-warnings

Tasman low 13 Oct.jpg

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Sun 13/10/2019 11:13

yes. looking quite stormy to start next week

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sun 13/10/2019 12:14

And the third low which impacts the West Coast next Friday 18th

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Sun 13/10/2019 15:54

Don't see cirrus like this very

20191013_155235.jpg

often

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sun 13/10/2019 20:01

Main models on the 00Z runs now placing the deepening centre of the low to the west of Northland of Tuesday morning, EC projecting pressure around 981 hPa. This will position an unstable occluded front over Auckland and the Coromandel in the early hours of Tuesday morning, providing some very active weather.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Sun 13/10/2019 22:48

lightning starting to spark as the low gets closer. im thinking that there will be a risk here at some point between monday -wednesday.

edit lightning has stopped for now.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 14/10/2019 08:32

Can hear the gusts starting to whistle past the office building in the CBD now, probably around 50 km/h or so at a guess

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 14/10/2019 10:09

Winds have picked up here as well. Recorded easterly gusts to 70 km/h with the hand held at 9.30 on Mt Victoria. Should be quite aggressive later on with that low position.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 14/10/2019 15:55

Low's circulation centre is consolidating around 90 km NW of Cape Reinga on the latest sat pic. Cape Reinga is now down to 993 hPa. Whangarei Heads PWS just clocked a 110 km/h easterly coming off the gulf.

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Mon 14/10/2019 16:24

to be fair, its a pretty average event for lows like this
been worse in the past (80 kts in the outer gulf is common when there is a good low from the north pushing into a high pressure)

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 14/10/2019 16:40

Quite a rough ferry trip back home but not strong enough to cancel. Seems to have eased from a few hours ago.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 14/10/2019 17:23

Nice cold air injection coming in from the upper low in the Tasman giving the surface low a kick along off Cape Reinga. Some isolated sparks appearing on the frontal boundary off the east coast of Northland along with increased mid level moisture.

Water vapour 1410.jpg

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 14/10/2019 20:28

Conditionally unstable air mass across the North Island tomorrow with daytime heating/coupled with convergence could generate some thunderstorms. Also orographic lift over the Coromandel to BOP ranges. This type of set up would be good for storms in December but in mid October it's a bit marginal.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 14/10/2019 20:39

Starting to see boat damage in Waitemata harbour.

boat grounded 1410.jpg

ben g · Unread post by **ben g** » Mon 14/10/2019 21:16

CT, We must walk past each other while storm watching. I also live in devonport. Have just arrived home very wet and cold after helping another guy secure that yacht to the sea wall. These east Sou east gales are always damaging for the yachts moored in this area.

ben g · Unread post by **ben g** » Mon 14/10/2019 21:25

20191014_212033.jpg

For an area that's normally shelterd from most winds, the east Sou east gales blow with a large fetch.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 14/10/2019 21:39

ben g wrote: ↑Mon 14/10/2019 21:16 CT, We must walk past each other while storm watching. I also live in devonport. Have just arrived home very wet and cold after helping another guy secure that yacht to the sea wall. These east Sou east gales are always damaging for the yachts moored in this area.

Well done ben g securing it

It was bouncing around quite a bit when I went past.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 15/10/2019 06:01

A fairly steady light to moderate rain overnight, 22mm on my station since 9pm.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 15/10/2019 06:22

Just realised the rain gauge is continuing to count at the same rate even though the rain stopped, something must have blown in the gauge overnight and partially blocked it

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 15/10/2019 06:57

36mm so far here. Wind was consistently strong overnight. Baro now 990.6 hPa, a drop of 23 hPa in the last 24 hours.

Awhituobs · Unread post by **Awhituobs** » Tue 15/10/2019 07:00

Auckland land area has had gales...but no severe gales as forecasted and warned by M/S (even fire service pagers were going off a day ahead warning of 120km gusts..)
(in the past there has been worse easterly storms and at times not forecasted too (due to fronts that got more active across the area)...you cant win I guess LOL)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 15/10/2019 07:06

Heavy rain here this morning, skies brightening now. Afternoon looks to dry out here.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 15/10/2019 07:36

Cleared the gauge and measured out the remaining water, it comes to 33mm overnight for here. Wind wasn't particularly strong, been a long time since we had a decent easterly blow here.

tornado · Unread post by **tornado** » Tue 15/10/2019 08:07

had a good rain here last night. wind was blowing. but not gale

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 15/10/2019 09:15

I see 170mm in 12hours at the Pinnacles on Coromandel. Some road closures there as usual in wet weather.

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Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

Deep low NI 14 - 16 October

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