NZ Weather Forum

As has been mentioned in the October thread, current modelling suggests a settled and potentially very warm start to November. Maybe less settled second week and who knows what the downstream SSW impacts will be for the month.

yes A big blocking high pressure system. making a nice night for guy fawkes night.

GFS has pulled the 850mb temps over next weekend down by around 5 degrees here, maybe just a warm start rather than unusually warm

Chris W wrote: ↑Sun 27/10/2019 15:21 and who knows what the downstream SSW impacts will be for the month.

Probably nothing much interesting, especially down here, as with September and October?

Quite a decent surge of warm air coming in from Australia.

Will get 4 to 5 days with above average highs in many parts.

Saturdays 850mb chart.

The warm wave looks like very much like an inland/East event. GFS has had me as high as 29C on some runs. 27 as of now. Rotorua looks like the epicentre.
If this pattern had come through 4 days earlier - some October records could have been under threat.

Why are Metservice often so conservative on their forecast high temps for Auckland? Sunday/Monday almost certainly look warmer than 20-21C.

Could be hot down here.
Looking forward to 30C on Sunday if the conditions are right.

David wrote: ↑Thu 31/10/2019 20:33 Why are Metservice often so conservative on their forecast high temps for Auckland? Sunday/Monday almost certainly look warmer than 20-21C.

Sea breezes?

yes, exactly
in land away from the relatively cold (16c) ocean and it will be much warmer

David wrote: ↑Thu 31/10/2019 20:33 Why are Metservice often so conservative on their forecast high temps for Auckland? Sunday/Monday almost certainly look warmer than 20-21C.

Agreed, does look a little conservative. NIWA's now got 26C and 25C for Akld on Monday and Tuesday respectively, compared to MS's 23C for Ardmore Aero.

26C for the start of November for Auckland would be some sort of record?

looks like a big low next weekend. according to the models.

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 07:51 26C for the start of November for Auckland would be some sort of record?

Possibly, but since it's November it has to compete with other year's events in the last few days of November which can be more summer like.
Unfortunately saying something is a record for the first week of November is getting too specific to be meaningful. This pattern needed to come 4-5 days earlier, in Oct, then possibly could have smashed a record somewhere. Doubt Rotorua has had 30C in October before.

GFS has 30C for Rotorua on Sunday but I think it could end up more like 32C. Auckland would get those temps if we didn't have the SW.

Crazy Cape over canterbury the next today, seems outta place....

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 17:53 GFS has 30C for Rotorua on Sunday but I think it could end up more like 32C. Auckland would get those temps if we didn't have the SW.

I recall it being pretty unusual for Rotorua to exceed 30C in mid-summer, let alone early November.

tich wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 20:20

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 17:53 GFS has 30C for Rotorua on Sunday but I think it could end up more like 32C. Auckland would get those temps if we didn't have the SW.

I recall it being pretty unusual for Rotorua to exceed 30C in mid-summer, let alone early November.

I was going to update the post to Kawerau topping 30C. I was thinking Rotorua is quite elevated.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 21:10

tich wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 20:20I recall it being pretty unusual for Rotorua to exceed 30C in mid-summer, let alone early November.

I was going to update the post to Kawerau topping 30C. I was thinking Rotorua is quite elevated.

The weather in Kawerau can be quite surprising at times, not sure if their lil micro-climite is caused by Geographic influences of Geothermal, maybe a bit of both.

tgsnoopy wrote: ↑Fri 01/11/2019 22:18 The weather in Kawerau can be quite surprising at times, not sure if their lil micro-climite is caused by Geographic influences of Geothermal, maybe a bit of both.

Quite often you see that Kawerau getting the top temp for the country in situs like this,
Interesting to see how it comes out in the next few days.

Kawerau does have unique geography that helps

The 850mb temperature over the Bay of Plenty tomorrow will be 17C. As a rough rule of thumb I add 15C to the 850mb temp to get an idea of maximum temperature possible. So 32C possible in sheltered areas.

From Solarham.com "A very small sunspot is forming high in latitude in the southeast quadrant and has the correct magnetic layout to associate it with the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Imagery below courtesy of SDO/HMI. This will likely fade away fairly fast, but is a positive sign that the next solar cycle is on the way."

Sounds like we could be at solar cycle minimum about now. This is significant because statistically it increases the odds of developing a weak La Nina event this summer and autumn, and also increases the odds of a strong El Nino event in the 20/21 or 21/22 summers. Just tuck that thought away in the back of your mind, because at present there is no indication of a La Nina event developing, and the (IMHO largely useless, reactive) dynamical models are telling us to expect a weak El Nino.

that's a good sign of its not going to be a drawn out solar minimum (this time)?

there is much colder than normal water down the east coast of South Africa at the moment, seems to be a mirror of the IOD?
anwyay, that warm current mixes with the southern ocean west wind drift and brings pockets of warm water all the way to the southern ocean south of NZ
but with less warm water to feed in, that might mean a cooling of the water south of australia and onto southern NZ over the next 6 months?