NZ Weather Forum

Has sounded quite blusterous NW outside for the past few hours;
currently 19.3°C.

Still hazy in Auckland. A bit unusual to have the haze hanging around this long.

12Z models are not developing much in the way of thunderstorms today for the North island but it looks like a low chance of a decent cb popping up later today from Northland to central North Island.

Looks like some storms over the inland ranges/Hawkes Bay tomorrow but the system is on the way out.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 08:32 Still hazy in Auckland. A bit unusual to have the haze hanging around this long.

12Z models are not developing much in the way of thunderstorms today for the North island but I would treat it a low chance of a decent cb popping up later today from Northland to central North Island.

Looks like some storms over the inland ranges/Hawkes Bay tomorrow but the system is on the way out.

yes I think low risk today as well. but still a slight chance.

At the moment it looks like Christchurch, and many other parts of NZ are tracking for 2 -2.5 degrees above average for November. certainly snapped the "cooler" previous two months with a bang.

I was up early at 5am today and it was already 22 degrees at home. Nudging 30 now for the 6th time this month

Razor wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 09:57 At the moment it looks like Christchurch, and many other parts of NZ are tracking for 2 -2.5 degrees above average for November. certainly snapped the "cooler" previous two months with a bang.

I was up early at 5am today and it was already 22 degrees at home. Nudging 30 now for the 6th time this month

Yes its been a very warm start to summer in the garden city. Long may it continue into December and January.

31C in Amberley now, muggins here went for a short lunchtime run but survived!

Jeffs in Hoonhay is currently 33.2c

Running 0.6C warmer than previous 9 years average here. Apart from those few unusually warm days in the first week of the month, been reasonably normal for us.

Its unbelievably hot in cental Chch at present. Glad I did my exercise early today, slow walking pace only now! I can believe its approaching mid 30s here

Weather underground (IHURUNUI3) has Amberley on 32.8C. We could top out at 34 at about 4-5pm if it stays NW.

Razor wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 14:37 Its unbelievably hot in cental Chch at present. Glad I did my exercise early today, slow walking pace only now! I can believe its approaching mid 30s here

Managed 70mins round Hagley Park at lunch time. Sticking to the shade was crucial - even 30sec in the full sun was seriously wilting.
Some big patches of melting tar on Springs Rd the drive home to Rolleston.

JP wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 11:54 Yes its been a very warm start to summer in the garden city. Long may it continue into December and January.

I hope not. Far too hot this week.

The heat here seems bearable after spending a couple of weeks in Queensland

33C and the NE is trying to muscle in.

wow almost the whole of the north island is under low risk for thunderstorms tommorow with inland areas under moderate.


Edit: isolated downpours /thunderstorms south of Taupo at the moment.

If the upper cold trough can slow down a bit we might get a storm near Auckland tomorrow , there is moist air, heating and convergence tomorrow but the upper levels are warming, Hamilton looking better.

spwill wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 18:20 If the upper cold trough can slow down a bit we might get a storm near Auckland tomorrow , there is moist air, heating and convergence tomorrow but the upper levels are warming, Hamilton looking better.

yes hamilton is the spot to be. although there is a slight chance of a storm hitting auckland.

Want cricket, not another boring storm ….

RWood wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 18:55 Want cricket, not another boring storm ….

You wash your mouth out Mr Wood

Made 29.8deg here today, in fact it stayed above 29 for four hours.

RWood wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 18:55 Want cricket, not another boring storm ….

There is convergence over Hamilton again on Saturday afternoon but the shower chance is less.

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 28/11/2019 18:38 yes hamilton is the spot to be. although there is a slight chance of a storm hitting auckland.

For Auckland I see slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight (early hours) and then a medium chance of a heavy shower tomorrow afternoon.

looks very weak now

Be interesting to see what happens this afternoon (saving here in case):

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/thu ... rm-outlook

Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 8:25pm Thursday 28 Nov 2019

Valid to Noon Friday 29 Nov 2019

Updated at 8pm Thursday - Moderate risk added to inland parts of southern Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay late morning.

A front moves eastwards over the upper North Island during Friday morning and there is an associated low risk of one or two thunderstorms for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and coastal parts of Waikato and Bay of Plenty as indicated on the chart.

Further south, a combination of light winds and a warm humid day should allow cloud buildups to develop and produce isolated showers from late morning about the central and eastern North Island. There is a general low risk of these showers developing into thunderstorms before midday, but this risk is considered closer to moderate about inland parts of southern Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay as indicated on the chart. If any thunderstorms do develop before midday they will be accompanied by localised heavy rain.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms of significant convection is expected.
Issued at 8:26pm Thursday 28 Nov 2019

Valid from Noon Friday 29 Nov 2019 to Midnight Friday 29 Nov 2019

Updated at 8:15pm Thursday - Severe thunderstorm risk added to central North Island; moderate risk added to inland Buller.

The combination of light winds and a warm humid day is expected to allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms about many parts of the North Island and upper South Island during Friday afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about inland parts of the North Island from Waikato and inland Bay of Plenty down to inland parts of Manawatu and southern Hawkes Bay during the afternoon and evening, and a low risk about many other parts of the North Island as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain and hail.

About the central North Island high country however, including the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay ranges, a few of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr (or more) and hail. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas, and make driving conditions hazardous.

In the South Island, there is a general low risk of thunderstorms about inland parts of Marlborough, Nelson, Buller and Westland during the afternoon and evening, however this risk is considered moderate about inland parts of Buller as indicated on the chart. Localised heavy rain will accompany any thunderstorms that develop.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected.

Unfortunately there is a good chance the cricket will catch heavy shower/maybe thunder this afternoon.

Heading up to Napier this evening for the rocket launch. First time I have ever hoped for no thunderstorms! Might go via desert road...