Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2019-20 Sth Pacific / Oz

[Cyclone Tracy]

Just for the record, TC Claudia now up and running off W.A. She will likely strengthen in the next few days to a severe tropical cyclone but will only disturb fish and mariners on her journey to the TC graveyard.

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Tino named today.

[Cyclone Tracy]

A MJO trend is starting to appear. A broader monsoonal surge across Northern Australia and the South Pacific is starting to take shape for February. The Coral sea surface temps are currently between 28c to 30c.

[Cyclone Tracy]

JTWC has named tropical cyclone 12P in the south Pacific overnight. Currently located 200 km southeast of Niue, 12P is still a low chance to be named by Fiji Met as it is in a favourable environment for the next 24 hours and it could meet their threshold. A more hostile wind shear and low SST's after that will make it's life short lived.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The Americans now have invest 91P under surveillance near the northern region of the Coral sea. A low level circulation has been assisted by an equatorial rossby wave over the last few days. Sea surface temperatures are simmering around 30c. It's about to get more lively in the South Pacific and Coral sea as we move further into February.

[Awhituobs]

the Tasman sea is currently in a another marine heat wave
24C west of upper NZ..amazing
if a cylone did move towards NZ it could stay together for a bit longer
however there is strong ridging over NZ next week

[Awhituobs]

check out the BOM/Access model
(will change but fun)

access.png

[TonyT]

A significant southern hemisphere coronal hole is rotating in an earth facing position and should unleash a moderate coronal mass ejection (CME) in our direction around Thursday/Friday. Past experience suggests this can be associated with TC development 8-10 days later over favourable oceans, and I think the Coral Sea is in a favourable state presently. So, I would suggest we look out for a TC to spin up there around Feb 14-17th.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

You could be right, there.

[Chris W]

BOM Access has a TC developing in the coming days north of New Caledonia, then heading south. GFS and EC have it respectively over and west of NZ around the 18th. MetService bulletin from Monday below but a new one due today:

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2205 UTC 03-Feb-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC WED 05-FEB-2020
No tropical cyclones are expected.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT 08-FEB-2020
There is a LOW potential for a low west of Vanuatu to become a
tropical cyclone on Saturday. Organisation is currently poor, but
environmental conditions should gradually become more favourable as
the week goes on. Most model outlooks pick the system to deepen over
the weekend, over waters west of Vanuatu. No other significant lows
of interest.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Wed 05-Feb-2020

[Chris W]

Yep, we're on:

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2235 UTC 05-Feb-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC FRI 07-FEB-2020
A weak tropical low currently lies west-northwest of Vanuatu.
Organisation looks poor at present, but environmental conditions are
expected to become more favourable for the system to develop this
weekend. Hence there is a LOW risk that a tropical cyclone will lie
over waters west of Vanuatu until end of Friday.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC MON 10-FEB-2020
A tropical low may lie over waters west of Vanuatu and it is expected
to rapidly intensify over the weekend. Hence there is a MODERATE risk
that a tropical cyclone will lie over waters west of Vanuatu on
Saturday, increasing to HIGH late Saturday or early Sunday. This
system is expected to be slow moving west of Vanuatu until Sunday and
then begin to track southwest towards New Caledonia on Monday.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Fri 07-Feb-2020

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2020

[Cyclone Tracy]

Cyclone off the W.A coast is now around 35 knots (1 min ave), BoM should name it Damien later tonight. Looks like hitting around Karratha, W.A as a cat 3 over the weekend.

Invest 91P is now spinning up to around 20 knots near Vanuatu. A new depression named Invest 93P near Fiji is also now under surveillance from the Americans.

Today's UKMet 00Z run has 91P as a deep warm core annular cyclone south west of New Caledonia in 6 days. If the ridge stays strong, this scenario would steer a beastly synoptic scale cyclonic gyre towards populated areas of Northern NSW. Still lots of change with this over 100 hours out but the BoM would now be a little concerned considering the flooding rains that SE QLD & NSW is about to receive in the next few days.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Damien now official off W.A. BoM projecting a nasty coastal crossing into the Pilbara within 48 hours.

[Chris W]

Cyclone off the W.A coast is now around 35 knots (1 min ave), BoM should name it Damien later tonight. Looks like hitting around Karratha, W.A as a cat 3 over the weekend.

Invest 91P is now spinning up to around 20 knots near Vanuatu. A new depression named Invest 93P near Fiji is also now under surveillance from the Americans.

Today's UKMet 00Z run has 91P as a deep warm core annular cyclone south west of New Caledonia in 6 days. If the ridge stays strong, this scenario would steer a beastly synoptic scale cyclonic gyre towards populated areas of Northern NSW. Still lots of change with this over 100 hours out but the BoM would now be a little concerned considering the flooding rains that SE QLD & NSW is about to receive in the next few days.

GFS takes it over Otago on Saturday 15th, strong winds and heavy rain for the South Island west coast, as much as that is needed!!!

EC sends it bombing towards Cook Strait on Sunday/Monday.

[Awhituobs]

You cant lock anything in this early on I suggest
Only general ideas

[Cyclone Tracy]

Oz radar now picking up a nicely defined eye on severe TC Damien NW of Karratha, W,A. Damien looks like he has wobbled little more SW than forecast overnight and the BoM have now moved the eyewall impact zone to include Dampier as well as Karratha.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Damien, showing mid range cat 3 sustained winds around 140km/h and gusts into the 180's and 190's km/h on landfall around Dampier and Karratha. Not as dramatic as the forecast but still a decent punch.

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Uesi named today near New Caledonia.

[Willoughby]

Damien blew off the Dampier radar dome:

"Dampier (WA) radar outage: Dampier Radar was damaged beyond repair due to severe weather caused by TC Damien and data from this radar will be unavailable until further notice."

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 93P now circulating at around 15 knots north of Fiji.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 96P now under surveillance near Vanuatu. If it develops into a depression or cyclone, it has the potential to be caught in a fujiwhara effect with 93P as they ride the ridge around the South Pacific. UKMet has the system slowing and well west of the American models at 168 hours, which is interesting.

[Cyclone Tracy]

GFS projecting a triplet vortex fujiwhara effect on the monsoon trough above the South Pacific convergence zone by tomorrow afternoon.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 93P now has transitioned to a subtropical system and will develop into a large extratropical cyclone well east of NZ in the next couple of days.

Invest 96P is following in behind it on the monsoon trough, currently 998 hPa and 25 knot winds north of Fiji. Longer term, EC has few ensemble members including the main control riding the subtropical ridge towards NZ near the end of Feb.

[Awhituobs]

ECMWF playing with that idea of the second low sliding SW around over the top of the blocking high to the east and bringing rain to parts of the NI

[Chris W]

GFS going for Uesi Mark 2, exactly the same track and bounce into the Tasman. Long way to go.