Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2019-20 Sth Pacific / Oz

[Nev]

Just for the record, TC Vicky was named by Fiji Met late this morning, after passing over Western Samoa earlier…

[Chris W]

Not Victoria? Are we that lazy now

[TonyT]

There was another period of geomagnetic storming on Feb 20th (relatively minor, Kp index at 5 for a short time). So if the theory holds we should see another depression spin up in the tropical South Pacific around Feb 28th to March 2nd.

[Nev]

TC Wasi was named by Fiji Met this afternoon, following in the wake of Vicky, which was declared an Ex-TC around 8am this morn.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Esther now born and positioned in the GOC. Will find land in the next 24 hours and be steered west but could become a severe cyclone off W.A in the long term.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Named cyclone number 2 for the day by the BoM. TC Ferdinand off W.A. Projected to only be a worry for mariners and fish for the rest of the week as he heads west.

[Orion]

I assume "GOC" = "Gulf of Carpentaria", sí ?

[Cyclone Tracy]

I assume "GOC" = "Gulf of Carpentaria", sí ?

Correct. TC Esther is currently just making landfall from out of the gulf.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest EC 00Z projecting TC Esther to undergo the 'Brown ocean effect' and intensify from a tropical low into a cat 2 cyclone over land through the N.T.

[Cyclone Tracy]

All global models are locking onto the monsoon trough dipping south into the top end of OZ and the Coral sea in the coming week. The EC & UK ensembles have an increasing number of members producing a strong tropical cyclone off North Queensland a week from now. GEFS & CMC are producing 2 cyclones in the monsoonal trough.

[Awhituobs]

yes please (for possible remains coming this way and bringing us rain in 10 days)

[Nev]

Mod Note: See separate thread for TC Gretel (Coral Sea) named by the BoM this morning…

[Cyclone Tracy]

A significant drop in accumulated cyclone energy this season for the southern hemisphere. It will take a end of season outbreak of cyclones to even go close to the climatology average. Still a good 6 weeks left though and sea temp are quite favourable across the SH if strong MJO pulses or cross equatorial Rossby waves develop.

[Chris W]

GFS is hinting at something tropical developing around the 4th of April west of Vanuatu notably as an upper polar low also detaches and heads north a few days later. Just one run that I’ve seen at present however.

[Awhituobs]

Yeah, so has Access/ BOM

[Cyclone Tracy]

Currently there are 2 orbiting circulations at the top of the coral sea. Initial disturbance 98P now joined by 90P to the east. It seems the most likely scenario is that 90P will consume 98P under a fujiwhara effect and consolidate into a cyclone by late this weekend near Vanuatu. If the storm develops in an area as projected by most models currently, the next cyclone on the Fijian name list is 'Yolanda'.

Edit - Formed in the Australian region, named Harold and now with separate thread https://www.weatherforum.nz/phpBB3/view ... 46#p191346

[Chris W]

I think it was the EC that also has 91S over there in the Indian Ocean also developing, so if that heads South it might disturb the circulation in the 40s-50s a bit.

Looking at the hemisphere views at 500mb though, TCs look so tiny compared to the polar vortex. Not insignificant though.

[Chris W]

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2316 UTC 01-Apr-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC FRI 03-APR-2020
An active trough currently extends east-southeast from northern Cape
York Peninsula, across the Coral Sea to Fiji. A tropical low (90P)
lies in the Solomon Sea and is expected to move slowly southeast
while gradually deepening. The potential for this low to develop into
a tropical cyclone is LOW today, increasing to HIGH on Friday.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC MON 06-APR-2020
Tropical low (90P) is expected deepen further while moving close to
Vanuatu during the weekend. The chance for this system to develop
into a TC remains HIGH on Saturday. At this stage, there are some
differences between models on its movement and intensity. Despite
this, gales, large waves, heavy rain and flooding are expected to
affect the northern and central parts of Vanuatu during the weekend,
and the remaining areas early next week as the system tracks
southeast across Vanuatu. The environment remains very favourable,
hence the system could deepen to a CAT 2 or 3 cyclone from late
Sunday or Monday, and winds over Vanuatu could strengthen further
during this time.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Fri 03-Apr-2020

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2020

[Cyclone Tracy]

As the season closed out yesterday, data shows that the Southern Hemisphere again was below average for accumulated cyclone energy, continuing the downward trend since the late 1990's. In the South Pacific, there were 10 named storms within the JTWC threshold with more than half of the accumulated cyclone energy coming from one beast, severe tropical cyclone Harold. Another low energy season indeed for the SH.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Out of season tropical cyclone Mangga now being tracked by the BoM and is likely to be a decent EX-TC to impact south west W.A and Perth on Sunday and Monday. A cross equatorial Rossby wave has now spawned 2 cyclones. The 1st being Cyclone Amphan that blasted Bangladesh in recent days.